Mon, Sep 9 2019, 9:13 AM
Bonds are starting out in weaker territory this morning, mostly due to European trading hours. An improving US/China trade dialogue has been the defa...
Fri, Sep 6 2019, 5:37 PM
To be sure, there was at least some amount of trepidation ahead of today's jobs report. The past 2 trading days made a clear case for it with stronge...
Fri, Sep 6 2019, 4:58 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, which is a victory in light of yesterday's big jump higher. Part of that jump was due to fear that today's jobs repo...
Fri, Sep 6 2019, 11:45 AM
The title is a bit misleading. 2.5% coupons are nothing new--especially if we're talking about 15yr MBS. Even in 30yr MBS, 2.5s were being traded as...
Thu, Sep 5 2019, 4:36 PM
It's only fitting to throw in a vacation-themed reference on Labor Day week. Unfortunately, only the metaphor is lighthearted. It's underlying messa...
Thu, Sep 5 2019, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates walked back a decent chunk of their recent improvements today. This claim runs counter to almost any other coverage you'll see, but I'm...
Thu, Sep 5 2019, 10:00 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market endured a bit of selling pressure courtesy of various overseas developments and an onslaught of corporate bond...
Wed, Sep 4 2019, 8:23 PM
The past several days have been very good to the mortgage market. The secondary side of the market had been waiting for spreads to be able to tighten...
Wed, Sep 4 2019, 6:09 PM
Mortgage rates are on a tear . In the bigger picture, 2019 has been the best year in more than a decade. Only 2002 was arguably on the same level in t...
Wed, Sep 4 2019, 9:15 AM
In the day just passed, bonds rallied to start the overnight session, largely following Brexit-related trading in Europe. Yields rose moderately head...
Tue, Sep 3 2019, 5:31 PM
Today had potential to be one of those days where overnight give way to a frustrating sell-off that intensifies throughout the day. In fact, that wo...
Tue, Sep 3 2019, 5:05 PM
Mortgage rates had to endure some paradoxical momentum and delayed reaction to the broader bond market rally lately, but now, it's payback time! Not o...
Tue, Sep 3 2019, 9:26 AM
In the week just passed, Treasuries put in their most stable and uninspiring performance of the month (in their defense, it was a crazy month). Ever...
Fri, Aug 30 2019, 9:18 AM
In the day just passed, the Treasury complex came under pressure on several fronts. Trade related headlines sapped some of the safe haven demand, as ...
Thu, Aug 29 2019, 4:57 PM
Bonds were weaker overnight in response to upbeat trade headlines from China's commerce minister as well as Italian political news (read the MBS Liv...
Thu, Aug 29 2019, 4:12 PM
Two days ago, I wrote an article entitled " No, Mortgage Rates Aren't Based on 10yr Treasury Yields ." It's worth a read if you're not already up to s...
Thu, Aug 29 2019, 9:37 AM
Yesterday was one of the most boring trading sessions in recent memory. There were no meaningful market movers to discuss for the Treasury complex. ...
Wed, Aug 28 2019, 7:07 PM
Not many moving part to today's trading session... Bonds were modestly stronger overnight, mostly in order to keep some semblance of pace with bett...
Wed, Aug 28 2019, 5:49 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today as MBS (the mortgage-backed securities that determine the value of mortgages on the secondary market) improved relati...
Wed, Aug 28 2019, 9:18 AM
In the day just passed, traders focused on the yield curve--an opaque term that officially refers to the entire curve of bond yields versus bond durat...
Tue, Aug 27 2019, 6:58 PM
Bonds drifted into slightly stronger territory in the overnight session. The move was seemingly devoid of inspiration and had a very technical, mecha...
Tue, Aug 27 2019, 5:23 PM
Mortgage rates have been putting on a rather frustrating and exciting show in the month of August. On the one hand, they're at or near their lowest le...
Tue, Aug 27 2019, 9:05 AM
In the day just passed, bonds jumped out to an early lead in the overnight session on another incremental installment of trade war brinksmanship. Chi...
Mon, Aug 26 2019, 5:09 PM
It's a real bloodbath out there in the secondary mortgage market right now. The spread between MBS yields and Treasuries has quickly gone from surpri...
Mon, Aug 26 2019, 4:06 PM
Mortgage rates are sort of all over the place at the moment, and almost never where you'd expect. Those who haven't been following the bond market too...
Mon, Aug 26 2019, 9:06 AM
In the week just passed, the bond market set out to digest and react to the Federal Reserve only to end up finding much bigger inspiration. Wednesday...
Fri, Aug 23 2019, 6:09 PM
I was going to leave Tennyson out of the headline and bask in the alliterative glory of an unprecedented 5T title, but I figured you should know there...
Fri, Aug 23 2019, 5:33 PM
Mortgage rates were noticeably higher through yesterday afternoon as the bond market had generally been bouncing back from the more extreme levels ach...
Fri, Aug 23 2019, 9:14 AM
In the day just passed, bond markets weakened in the overnight session and then held mostly steady during the domestic hours. The most notable attemp...
Thu, Aug 22 2019, 4:18 PM
Today's most prominent trade was the reaction to the 9:45am Markit PMI data. Several of the metrics were at their weakest levels since 2009. The com...
Thu, Aug 22 2019, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates managed to hold relatively steady today after moving higher at their fastest pace in over a week yesterday. Incidentally, they also hit...
Thu, Aug 22 2019, 8:52 AM
In the day just passed, bonds digested and reacted to the minutes from the latest Fed meeting (from late July). Given that the Fed cut rates at that ...
Wed, Aug 21 2019, 5:33 PM
Today brought the (not very) much-anticipated FOMC Minutes--a more detailed account of the conversation that transpired at the end of July when the Fe...
Wed, Aug 21 2019, 4:58 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today, and it had nothing to do with any of the day's events or news headlines. Quite simply put, the bond market (which d...
Wed, Aug 21 2019, 10:14 AM
In the day just passed, a modest uptrend in yields was "defeated" from a technical standpoint. Yields broke below a trend-line marking "higher lows" ...
Tue, Aug 20 2019, 5:41 PM
Bonds were breathing easy by the time the domestic session got underway. Before that, they kicked off the overnight session in lower yield territory....
Tue, Aug 20 2019, 5:13 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, for the most part. If there was a leaning, it was toward slightly lower rates, but not by a wide enough margin to be...
Tue, Aug 20 2019, 8:59 AM
In the day just passed, we considered a rather melodramatic question ("is it over?"), which refers to the general strength in the bond market seen in ...
Mon, Aug 19 2019, 5:59 PM
There haven't been many market moving headlines over the past 2 days with the exception of Germany removing the veil of secrecy from its fiscal stim...
Mon, Aug 19 2019, 4:52 PM
Mortgage rates mostly held steady today , despite a move higher in broader interest rate indicators like the 10yr Treasury yield. Treasuries and mortg...
Mon, Aug 19 2019, 9:24 AM
In the week just passed, bonds rallied to new long-term low yields before bouncing on Friday. Hong Kong protests over the weekend kicked things off o...
Fri, Aug 16 2019, 4:54 PM
Perhaps more than any other day in the past few weeks, today stood as an example of the mortgage market's ability to put up a fight when the time is...
Fri, Aug 16 2019, 3:22 PM
Things have been weird enough for mortgage rates recently that we were forced to add a " Temporary Note on Mortgage Rate Inconsistency " to our daily ...
Fri, Aug 16 2019, 11:28 AM
10yr yields rallied aggressively yesterday, and for no reason more compelling than a proverbial "snowball rally compounded by technicals and algorithm...
Thu, Aug 15 2019, 5:35 PM
Bonds digested the week's busiest day of economic data, by far, today. But markets in general are only interested in data that changes the economic n...
Thu, Aug 15 2019, 5:18 PM
Mortgage rates fell today as the underlying market for mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) actually did a better job of keeping pace with broader bond ma...
Thu, Aug 15 2019, 8:37 AM
In the day just passed, bond markets primarily reacted to overseas economic data with many of the reports in Europe coming in flat to weaker. Combine...
Wed, Aug 14 2019, 7:00 PM
Living under a rock has a lot of advantages: generally low housing cost, durability, no roof maintenance, and if you're strong enough, you have someth...
Wed, Aug 14 2019, 6:31 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged for many lenders today which is utterly and completely shocking given the other market developments that tend to coincid...
Wed, Aug 14 2019, 10:50 AM
In the day just passed, bonds sold off by a completely average amount in the context of recent volatility and new trading range. Motivations were abo...
