Tue, Aug 13 2019, 6:07 PM
Bonds began the day in relatively unchanged territory versus yesterday's close and soon encountered the slightly stronger CPI data (2.2 vs 2.1% for CO...
Tue, Aug 13 2019, 5:13 PM
Mortgage rates were still unchanged for many lenders as of this morning. There were even a few offering slightly lower rates compared to yesterday mor...
Tue, Aug 13 2019, 8:35 AM
In the day just passed, bonds put in their second biggest rally day of the past 3 weeks (the crazy ones) and their biggest rally day since yields bott...
Mon, Aug 12 2019, 6:00 PM
There were no significant scheduled events in the offing today. Volumes were down sharply in the bond complex as well (less than 50% of recent highs)...
Mon, Aug 12 2019, 3:24 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today--a claim that utterly boggles the mind of anyone who thought they understood the relationship b...
Mon, Aug 12 2019, 9:30 AM
In the week just passed, bonds began to settle into a range after the sharp move lower in the previous week (driven by flaring trade tensions). This ...
Fri, Aug 9 2019, 4:53 PM
I wouldn't go so far as to say this week of bond market movement went "out like a lamb," but at the very least, it wasn't nearly as brutal as the firs...
Fri, Aug 9 2019, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today even though the broader bond market suggested they should have remained flat or higher. In several of this week's pre...
Fri, Aug 9 2019, 12:48 PM
It's too late in the morning at this point to refer to this post as a "Day Ahead," so let's change course a bit and simply address the biggest burning...
Thu, Aug 8 2019, 5:12 PM
For some reason, yesterday's recap didn't go out. You didn't miss much. I wrote a bit about how I roll out of my high tech cryo-stasis chamber each ...
Thu, Aug 8 2019, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates were sharply higher today, with the average 30yr fixed rate quote rising by almost an eighth of a percentage point in some cases. A mov...
Thu, Aug 8 2019, 10:33 AM
In the day just passed, bonds endured whipsaw volatility of the highest and most frustrating order. Overnight gains were swift and largely defied any...
Wed, Aug 7 2019, 5:13 PM
Mortgage rates have had a great week. Although rates are slightly higher today versus yesterday, they're still exceptionally close to the lowest level...
Wed, Aug 7 2019, 10:13 AM
In the day just passed, bonds held their ground after overnight weakness and eventually moved back into positive territory. That happened in spite of...
Tue, Aug 6 2019, 6:55 PM
MBS lost 10 ticks today while 10yr Notes gained 1 tick. Times like this are uncommon, but they do happen. The perfect storm required for such things...
Tue, Aug 6 2019, 6:03 PM
Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since November 2016 late last week and they've proceeded to set a new long-term low each day since then. Today ...
Tue, Aug 6 2019, 9:50 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market spent a 3rd straight day collecting treasure. For our purposes, "treasure" refers to the newfound, unexpected...
Mon, Aug 5 2019, 4:52 PM
From 2010 on, the point about the interconnectedness of global financial markets has increasingly been driven home. It was a fun time for me, analyt...
Mon, Aug 5 2019, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates were already in great shape on Friday after having fallen to the lowest levels since November 2016. Rather than draw inspiration from t...
Mon, Aug 5 2019, 10:01 AM
In the week just passed, bonds set out to react to the Fed announcement and a slew of important domestic economic data. While all of the above exerte...
Fri, Aug 2 2019, 8:00 PM
To be fair, after rates fall as much as they fell yesterday (let's specify: the rates implied by bond markets, not necessarily actual mortgage rates),...
Fri, Aug 2 2019, 7:02 PM
Mortgage rates fell again on Friday as lenders finally saw recent bond market gains stabilize enough to act on. In other words, lenders don't always k...
Fri, Aug 2 2019, 8:31 AM
In the day just passed, bonds successfully stormed the castle, assuming the castle refers to 10yr yields with a "1" in front. At first inspiration ca...
Thu, Aug 1 2019, 4:07 PM
The world may never know if today's Trump tweets have anything at all to do with his stance on the Fed's fund rate, but one things for sure: they were...
Thu, Aug 1 2019, 3:06 PM
Mortgage rates fell today, but by how much depends on the lender! This runs contrary to the average news story which contains some reference to rates ...
Thu, Aug 1 2019, 9:26 AM
In the day just passed, bonds didn't move a ton in the bigger picture but endured an hour of whipsaw volatility surrounding the Fed announcement and p...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 7:58 PM
The Fed Announcement and press conference may not have left bonds in hugely different territory today, but the 2pm-3pm hour was one of the wildest 60 ...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 6:27 PM
Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged today, which will come as a surprise to scores of consumers who mistakenly believe the Fed's 0.25% rate cut equat...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 2:03 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activ...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 8:54 AM
In the day just passed, bonds put in one more day of slow, illiquid summertime trading. Granted, volumes were slightly better than the previous sessi...
Tue, Jul 30 2019, 5:09 PM
Today had all the trappings of a return to some semblance of volume and volatility for what has otherwise been sleepy summertime bond trading patterns...
Tue, Jul 30 2019, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates haven't moved much this week, or last week, or the week before that. In fact, for the average prospective borrower, there haven't been ...
Tue, Jul 30 2019, 10:52 AM
In the day just passed, bonds drifted through one of those characteristic summertime Mondays without any meaningful liquidity, volume, or volatility. ...
Mon, Jul 29 2019, 4:43 PM
If you recall the analysis from a few days ago that called attention to the lowest daily trading volumes in Treasury futures in months, it's worth not...
Mon, Jul 29 2019, 4:21 PM
Mortgage rates moved back down , albeit just slightly, into last week's range. They'd risen for 2 straight days by Friday, and today's improvement lea...
Mon, Jul 29 2019, 10:45 AM
In the week just passed, bonds held a fairly narrow range with 10yr yields capped by a 2.10% ceiling. On the stronger side, they were generally unabl...
Fri, Jul 26 2019, 5:12 PM
Bonds began the day with intensely sideways momentum intact. That was the case all the way back to the 10am ET hour yesterday after yields rose in re...
Fri, Jul 26 2019, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates edged just slightly higher today for the average lender, marking the 2nd day of weakness this week. In terms of the underlying bond mar...
Fri, Jul 26 2019, 9:37 AM
In the day just passed, bonds gyrated in response to (and in anticipation of) updates from the European Central Bank (ECB). Anticipation for a friend...
Thu, Jul 25 2019, 3:58 PM
The European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and press conference were hotly-anticipated as today's key events and they did not disappoint. The annou...
Thu, Jul 25 2019, 3:26 PM
Mortgage rates were moderately higher today marking the first detectable shift of the week. Many of the market participants who trade the bonds respon...
Thu, Jul 25 2019, 8:29 AM
In the day just passed, bonds managed to rally in the overnight session with help from weaker European economic data, which fueled expectations for an...
Wed, Jul 24 2019, 3:53 PM
A storm of potential inspiration is brewing for the bond market. Over the next 5 trading days we'll get announcements from the 2 biggest central bank...
Wed, Jul 24 2019, 3:13 PM
Mortgage rates barely budged today, with the average lender offering almost the exact same terms as yesterday. That took some doing in the form of str...
Wed, Jul 24 2019, 9:17 AM
In the day just passed, bonds weakened slightly as corporate debt issuance weighed on Treasuries. Afternoon headlines regarding US/China trade negoti...
Tue, Jul 23 2019, 6:10 PM
MBS did a great job of fending off an onslaught of Treasury weakness today. MBS outperformance is a relatively foreign concept of late, but we do t...
Tue, Jul 23 2019, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates side-stepped today, bringing an end to a gentle but consistent move lower over the past 5 business days. During that time the average c...
Tue, Jul 23 2019, 8:56 AM
In the day just passed, bonds made modest gains at the open only to give most of them up by the close. Activity was concentrated at the specific open...
Mon, Jul 22 2019, 3:30 PM
Mortgage rates were lower again today. The improvement was fairly decent given the amount of movement seen in the bond market. The reason for that has...
Mon, Jul 22 2019, 8:54 AM
In the week just passed, bonds set to the task of confirming a ceiling in yields that had been forming at the end of the previous week. The friendly ...
