Any time bonds are as oversold as they were yesterday, there's a better chance of a bigger corrective rally when a reason to rally finally presents itself.  It's possible that sellers were already feeling tapped out based on yesterday's fairly flat session, but buyers were out in force overnight and again this morning thanks to the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs). EU PMIs drove the overnight gains--especially Germany's services PMI which came in at 47.3 vs 51.5).  As such, there was a bit of anticipation heading into the US version at 9:45am ET. 

20230823 open2.png

While US PMIs didn't match the same delightfully gloomy message sent by EU variants, they were weak enough for the message to be cohesive around the world.  "Global growth concerns," anyone?  The only caveat is the sheer level of volatility in global PMIs post-covid.  Granted, it's not much of a caveat considering the extent to which other data has been less and less volatile (i.e. this decline is likely more than "noise").

20230823 open3.png

With that, bonds are rallying fairly aggressively this morning, but just keep in mind that it will take more than one day's worth of data to change the tone, and consistently gloomy data over 1-3 months to confirm a shift in the big picture trend.