Like the crowd that cheers when their team scores late in a game that they have no hope of winning, it's hard not to feel some sense of relief or optimism when 10yr yields start the day 5bps lower. But if we were to close at these levels, it would still be the 3rd worst day of 2023. Of course every big recovery has to start somewhere, but there's no way to confirm that today is such a "somewhere" without the benefit of hindsight. Until then, it's just that late game highlight while the opposing team chants "scoreboard."
There is no significant economic data on tap, and the typical "summertime Friday" is in order. Specifically, lighter liquidity combined with the closing of weekly trading positions can make for seemingly random momentum that carries yields farther than it otherwise would. Long story short, we're not reading much--if anything--into today's heretofore rally. The same would be true if gains turn to losses by the end of the day.