Mon, Dec 13 2010, 12:05 PM
The Federal Reserve has updated their QEII asset purchasing schedule.
From December 13th to January 11th the New York Federal Reserve's trading de...
Mon, Dec 13 2010, 9:46 AM
Although a year-end lack of liquidity can be cited as a catalyst for exaggerated increases in interest rates lately, it's pretty obvious that bargain ...
Mon, Dec 13 2010, 8:57 AM
The calendar of economic data was thin last week, but the next few days brings key numbers on retail sales, manufacturing and production, and cost pre...
Mon, Dec 13 2010, 6:19 PM
Things can slow down at work and get busier in your personal life during December. And regardless of the time of year, who doesn't appreciate a Frida...
Mon, Dec 13 2010, 4:10 PM
Plain and Simple: For 30 year fixed mortgages, there is a clear line of demarcation between 4.625% and 4.75%. If you are looking to close in the next ...
Mon, Dec 13 2010, 2:31 PM
Last week, we noted that lenders were not likely to add production into year end. In addition we talked at length about the "big difference" between ...
Fri, Dec 10 2010, 11:44 AM
After going out in the 3.22 range last night, the benchmakr 10yr TSY note pushed higher out the gate this AM all the way up to 3.28% where support was...
Fri, Dec 10 2010, 8:42 AM
The trade deficit narrowed considerably more than expected in October as exports increased 3.2% and imports decreased by 0.5%. Bonds started selling a...
Fri, Dec 10 2010, 8:24 AM
Equity futures are moving higher Friday ahead of key trade balance and consumer sentiment data. And interest rates are moving higher too.
Fri, Dec 10 2010, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates shot higher this week. The new "best execution" par 30 year fixed mortgage rate has jumped firmly up to 4.75%.
Fri, Dec 10 2010, 1:37 PM
Downside implications are mitigated somewhat by the fact that trading volumes are very low and liquidity is greatly lacking. Fast$ day traders are ind...
Thu, Dec 9 2010, 11:27 AM
The 10yr note yield just shot up from 3.228% to 3.271% for seemingly no reason. Then I got my POMO email alert from the FRBNY and it made more sense.....
Thu, Dec 9 2010, 10:32 AM
At 830am, weekly jobless claims printed at 421k vs 425k median estimates. Many of the report's metrics showed improvements, but despite a few "best l...
Thu, Dec 9 2010, 8:24 AM
Benchmark interest rates moved mostly sideways overnight but are off yesterday's highs. Equity futures are moving higher Thursday, continuing on from ...
Thu, Dec 9 2010, 7:03 PM
Mortgage rates got cheaper at the table today but didn't improve in principal
Thu, Dec 9 2010, 6:47 PM
Today we saw an aggressively bid 30 year bond auction give benchmarks a boost but positive progress eventually stalled at a long term technical resis...
Thu, Dec 9 2010, 3:34 PM
December Fannie and Freddie 30 year fixed MBS coupon have begun the settlement process and it looks like prices just plummeted.
Thu, Dec 9 2010, 2:54 PM
There are a couple really nice components to point out in today's $13 billion Treasury bond auction.
Wed, Dec 8 2010, 10:48 AM
Ever hear us say "mortgage rates rise much faster than they fall". This is a factor of extension risk and right now we're learning a painful lesson on...
Wed, Dec 8 2010, 9:06 AM
Benchmark interest rates continued to move higher overnight in response to news that a compromise had been achieved on both the extension of Bush era...
Wed, Dec 8 2010, 7:10 PM
Plain and Simple: There is a clear line of demarcation between 4.625% and 4.75%. If you are looking to close in the next 2 weeks...4.75% is your likel...
Wed, Dec 8 2010, 2:34 PM
As we approach 2pm, it is becoming painfully obvious just how much of today's weakness was and was not a factor of an auction concession...
Wed, Dec 8 2010, 1:11 PM
We're seeing modest improvements in the aftermath of the auction, mostly led by the futures market. I would say this is more short covering than outri...
Tue, Dec 7 2010, 9:33 AM
Seems like we'll be stuck with these rates at least into early 2011.
Tue, Dec 7 2010, 8:56 AM
Equity futures are pointing to a strong open this morning following President Obama’s announcement late yesterday that he had struck a deal with Repub...
Tue, Dec 7 2010, 6:19 PM
The economic environment has provided plenty of compelling talking points for us to argue either angle (bullish or bearish), but year-end is not the t...
Tue, Dec 7 2010, 5:22 PM
When all was said and done, prices of loan production MBS coupons (which guide lender rate sheets) had fallen over a full point! To bring that number...
Tue, Dec 7 2010, 3:05 PM
The weak 3yr note auction at 1pm did little to help an already negative bias in the bond market. Ok, so it did the opposit of 'help.' It's not that ...
Tue, Dec 7 2010, 1:08 PM
The auction wasn't all that bad. Buyers were willing to bid but not aggressively. High hit rates combined with a weak btc ratio and modest tail vs. th...
Mon, Dec 6 2010, 10:39 AM
After Friday's paradoxical sell-off in the bond market, we come to work on Monday morning to find the 4.0 MBS coupon has recovered all of it's losses ...
Mon, Dec 6 2010, 9:23 AM
The week ahead is pretty light on fresh data until Friday brings in the latest trade balance and consumer sentiment figures. This leaves the broader m...
Mon, Dec 6 2010, 7:32 PM
If you were out sick on fickle Friday, congratulations! You missed quite a bit of frustration.
Mon, Dec 6 2010, 5:49 PM
It's already been said that today was a generally quiet day in the bond market. But it's the kind of quiet we'll smile about because it took the prod...
Mon, Dec 6 2010, 1:32 PM
In the absence of new domestic data, the Fed's fifteenth QEII open market operation has been the primary force behind price action in the government b...
Fri, Dec 3 2010, 12:23 PM
Somebody call Spiderman! You know that thing he does when people are falling out of buildings and what not? With the wrists and the web shooting and...
Fri, Dec 3 2010, 10:27 AM
Between a better than expected ISM report and the stock market's somewhat surprising unwillingness to sell-off on the NFP news, the 10yr note is showi...
Fri, Dec 3 2010, 9:58 AM
As stock markets open down about a tenth of a percent, bond have been off the the races this morning, with the 10yr note dropping 10bps and MBS 4.0's ...
Fri, Dec 3 2010, 8:30 AM
The November Employment Situation Report has been released. Contrary to the October report, November data was extremely disappointing .
Fri, Dec 3 2010, 8:16 AM
enchmark yields moved mostly sideways overnight but have ticked higher over the last hour as investors await the all-important jobs report for Novembe...
Fri, Dec 3 2010, 7:23 PM
I'm here to offer some perspective amidst what might seem like crisis. The crisis? Weak NFP numbers sparked massive bond rally early which has compl...
Thu, Dec 2 2010, 11:17 AM
AQ mentioned negative convexity and extending hedge ratios and that's indeed the reason for what seems like an overly aggressive drop. But if the ove...
Thu, Dec 2 2010, 8:42 AM
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 16,000 heads in the week ending November 27th. This was 11,000 claims above the median forecast...
Thu, Dec 2 2010, 8:28 AM
Stock markets continue to rally Thursday morning ahead of key labor and housing data....and the bond market continues to suffer as a result.
Thu, Dec 2 2010, 7:54 PM
Chances are if you're reading this on 12/2, then it's probably too late to make a last minute decision to lock a rate before tomorrow morning's NFP (N...
Thu, Dec 2 2010, 7:11 PM
The last time the Employment Situation Report was recapped on this blog, we were fresh off a one-day QEII rally that had led mortgage rates back down ...
Thu, Dec 2 2010, 2:51 PM
A depressed housing market, burgeoning retail and tourism statistics, price sensitivity, and producer price pressures are among the things noted in th...
Wed, Dec 1 2010, 8:48 AM
All that buying we witnessed yesterday, in VERY high volume, was erased overnight. The yield curve is significantly steeper this morning and "rate she...
Wed, Dec 1 2010, 8:26 AM
A global rally to begin December has stocks soaring ahead of a full schedule of macroeconomic data. The risk trade is back on it's not helping interes...
Wed, Dec 1 2010, 4:58 PM
The same problem that plagued mortgage rates in recent days where 3.5 MBS's were not trading in enough volume to allow rates to dip much below 4.25% i...
Wed, Dec 1 2010, 2:56 PM
What began as a bad day for bonds with overnight optimism regarding the Eurozone crisis was only made worse by a slew of as-expected or better than ex...
