Tue, Nov 16 2010, 6:22 PM
After recapturing some of the losses from yesterday, it was right back into sell mode as prices hurtled disturbingly toward even lower prices than yes...
Tue, Nov 16 2010, 2:20 PM
Railroaded... Now there's a good figure of speech, and one that is better defined by examples that by the dictionary. Webster says: " a : to convict...
Mon, Nov 15 2010, 10:26 AM
Most of the production MBS stack had been down nearly a full point this morning but have since battled back. The 3.5 is currently down 21 ticks at 98...
Mon, Nov 15 2010, 8:34 AM
There’s no shortage of data in the week ahead. Key events include retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, plus key inflation data and a f...
Mon, Nov 15 2010, 6:49 PM
Treasuries got smoked again, with another huge uptick in intermediate-maturity yields. The 10-year closed down almost 1 ½ points from Friday’s close, ...
Mon, Nov 15 2010, 4:36 PM
Tension remains high in the primary mortgage market as mortgage rates have extended their losing streak. We're in a tough spot here...
Mon, Nov 15 2010, 3:34 PM
At 1:35 PM, the Fannie 4.0 peaked at 102-02. Just an hour later, prices had fallen to 101-20 before sliding to 101-15 (pretty much this AM's levels) ...
Mon, Nov 15 2010, 1:59 PM
Bonds continue to rally and/or hold their ground despite a neutral to bullish retail sales report as well as rallying stocks. This is a potential con...
Fri, Nov 12 2010, 12:39 PM
Not much green on my trading screens today, unless you look at yields and volatility, those are up! Otherwise the only other thing rallying is a herd ...
Fri, Nov 12 2010, 10:10 AM
Our tension level remains high this morning as tactical day traders squeeze out every last drop of short seller profit in the belly of the curve all t...
Fri, Nov 12 2010, 8:43 AM
Benchmark interest rates traded lower early in the overnight session but began to tick higher as London went to work around 3am. Also, the tumble in ...
Fri, Nov 12 2010, 6:09 PM
There were moments of hope, but for the most part we watched helplessly as the market moved in the wrong direction. And today. Ugh. Today was the icin...
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 10:22 AM
Treasury yields have yet to hit a ceiling and "rate sheet influential" MBS prices have yet to find a floor. I am not panicking. I repeat. I am not pan...
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 8:28 AM
Interest rates are continuing to trek higher while equity futures are pointing lower ahead of a busy schedule of macroeconomic data and events.
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 6:43 PM
QEII is here. This is the event that will help mortgage rates move back below 4.00% again. Patience is counting down without blasting off.
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 5:20 PM
The bond market is closed tomorrow, this will give us plenty of time to ponder what happens on Friday and when we should be expecting mortgage rates t...
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 2:05 PM
The Fed will conduct 18 open market asset purchases over the next 19 trading sessions. They will spend about $105 billion which works out to around $5...
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 1:15 PM
Plain and Simple: the Fed will not focus their QEII purchases in the ultra long-end of the yield curve. Why buy 'em, especially if you're worried abou...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 12:19 PM
MBS prices are well off their early AM highs and we will probably see reprices for the worse following the TSY auction unless there is a rally in the ...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 10:55 AM
The Treasury Department will announce the results of their $24 billion 10yr note fundraiser at 1pm. Pre-auction price/yield concessions are obvious as...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 8:13 AM
We've seen very light origination flows over past three sessions. This means lock desks are underhedged and we'll need to see secondary managers add s...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 4:30 PM
I think it's safe to say your float boat took on water today. Benchmark Treasury yields seemed to have no ceiling and MBS prices appeared to have no f...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 1:05 PM
There was an obvious increase in trading activity immediately after the auction results were released. The knee jerk move was higher in price/lower in...
Mon, Nov 8 2010, 8:55 AM
The week ahead brings little new data. The highlight of the economic calendar is the trade deficit on Wednesday and the month’s first consumer sentime...
Mon, Nov 8 2010, 4:48 PM
MY OUTLOOK: SEE ABOVE STATEMENT. ****NO CHANGE NO CHANGE NO CHANGE****
Mon, Nov 8 2010, 4:17 PM
Today is Class A Notification Day in the secondary mortgage market. Class A MBS coupons consist of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 30 year loan notes. Nove...
Mon, Nov 8 2010, 1:07 PM
Directs and Indirects seemed hesitant to chase after the short end of the curve but dealers were aggressive, which kept the auction from getting slopp...
Fri, Nov 5 2010, 12:19 PM
Loan pricing is getting beat up. MBS prices are moving to new intraday lows. Reprices for the Worse are possible. Suntrust already went worse.
Fri, Nov 5 2010, 8:31 AM
The October Employment Situation Report has been released. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 151,000, this was much better than calls for a +60,000 print. The...
Fri, Nov 5 2010, 8:19 AM
Benchmark interest rates made an aggressive move lower yesterday and tocks rallied to their highest levels since before the crash of Lehman Brothers, ...
Fri, Nov 5 2010, 3:39 PM
We've spent most of our time lately celebrating accommodative and expansionary policies that push mortgage rates lower. The problem with this perspec...
Thu, Nov 4 2010, 12:11 PM
I have some good news to share. Lenders aren't holding back bps. The majors are going for it. Loan pricing is QEII-tastic today....
Thu, Nov 4 2010, 8:35 AM
Rate sheet influential MBS coupons are approaching record price highs. This should allow lenders to carefully inch back toward record low mortgage ra...
Thu, Nov 4 2010, 8:06 AM
The following Op-Ed was written by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and published by the Washington Post last night. Ben is clearly paving a new path in mone...
Thu, Nov 4 2010, 7:42 AM
Both benchmark interest rates and stock futures rallied in the overnight session. The 2s/10s yield curve is bull flattening but the long bond continue...
Thu, Nov 4 2010, 4:43 PM
Ok so the rally we enjoyed today was another step in the right direction. Our outlook seems to be playing out perfectly but we're not quite there yet ...
Wed, Nov 3 2010, 12:05 PM
To be sure everybody is up to date on what we should be expecting, I've pulled a few more comments from Ben's Jackson Hole speech. The comments below ...
Wed, Nov 3 2010, 8:59 AM
Mid-terms are done. The Reds took the House and the Blues maintained their stronghold in the Senate. The bond market will view this as a fiscal policy...
Wed, Nov 3 2010, 8:24 AM
Interest rates are rallying and U.S. equity futures are pointing slightly upwards following yesterday’s mid-term elections and ahead of the FOMC’s new...
Wed, Nov 3 2010, 7:29 PM
Remember our MND RateWatch motto? Play the range until the range plays you. Bernanke didn't play us and it doesn't seem like he intends to anytime soo...
Wed, Nov 3 2010, 3:08 PM
The FOMC has directed the Open Market desk to purchase an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter ...
Wed, Nov 3 2010, 2:17 PM
To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee ...
Tue, Nov 2 2010, 9:00 AM
Well, I don't know why I came here tonight. I got the feeling that something ain't right. I'm so scared, in case I fall off my chair. And I'm wonde...
Tue, Nov 2 2010, 8:47 AM
Benchmark interest rates are lower and the yield curve is flatter on Tuesday morning as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day monetary policy meeting...
Tue, Nov 2 2010, 4:12 PM
At 2:15pm tomorrow, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release their policy statement. At 2:15pm we find out if Quantitative Easing becomes...
Tue, Nov 2 2010, 2:29 PM
I am seeing some volatility in the basis. MBS valuations are moving in an originator friendly manner. Besides the long bond, which appears to be catch...
Mon, Nov 1 2010, 12:56 PM
If you've been riding the float boat, now is not the time to be be pulling your hair out in panic. Remain calm, nothing has changed, QEII is coming an...
Mon, Nov 1 2010, 8:44 AM
Key Events in the Week Ahead Include: Mid-Term Elections, the FOMC Meeting, the Employment Situation Report, and Pending Home Sales.
Mon, Nov 1 2010, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates had their little hissy fit and consumer borrowing costs moved to one month highs. But it was all part of the game. We anticipated this ...
Mon, Nov 1 2010, 1:53 PM
Plain and Simple: YES. If open market asset purchases push benchmark yields and mortgage rates lower, to the point where loan refinancing increases en...
