Wed, Dec 29 2010, 1:16 PM
Rates are rallying. If you haven't seen reprices for the better already, you will soon. So far this rally smells like a short squeeze so don't get ove...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 11:27 AM
S&P/Case-Shiller home price data and Consumer Confidence were both bond market friendly this morning. Yet the bond market did not react logically to...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 8:29 AM
Benchmark interest rates are holding onto yesterday's post-auction bond market rally even as equity futures rally toward new two-year highs. This come...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 5:20 PM
Today is not one of the best days for MBS purely from a PRICE standpoint. 4.5's lost nearly a point (down 25 ticks to 101-10). In fact, losses of th...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 4:38 PM
If 4.75 was really on the table yesterday, it's not still there today. A thinly attended Treasury auction is cited as the culprit behind rising mortga...
Tue, Dec 28 2010, 1:53 PM
Prices are at their lows of the day, yields well above previous highs. Reprices for the worse could get heavy-handed....
Mon, Dec 27 2010, 8:17 AM
Welcome to the last week of 2010. We have three Treasury note auctions, two Fed QEII coupon passes, some housing data, and a couple of regional manufa...
Mon, Dec 27 2010, 5:18 PM
Without an improvement in attendance we'd expect to see more random meandering about a defined yet wide range. Call it an exploratory "poking and prod...
Mon, Dec 27 2010, 4:12 PM
The week ahead is historically slow on Wall Street. This means the potential for interest rate volatility is high and rate watchers should be prepared...
Mon, Dec 27 2010, 1:57 PM
The when-issued market was trading 2yr notes around .773 at the time of the 1pm auction. That means at a high yield of .74, the auction "traded throu...
Thu, Dec 23 2010, 11:50 AM
Blah blah blah rates higher blah blah blah outside the range blah blah blah Treasury supply blah blah blah tactical considerations blah blah blah hol...
Thu, Dec 23 2010, 9:48 AM
Today being the last trading day of the week, and a shortened one at that (SIFMA rec. 2pm), low volume is no surprise. In fact, it's 75% lower than a...
Thu, Dec 23 2010, 8:25 AM
The final day of this holiday-shortened week is packed full of macroeconomic data. An hour before the first report, the stock market is mixed as inves...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 12:46 PM
Bearish trends are certainly more established at the moment, which is to be expected if we're right about the market beginning to build in a concessio...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 8:53 AM
The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the Core PCE Price index fell from +1.6% in the 1st quarter to +0.8% in the 2nd quarter to a record low +0.4% ...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 8:26 AM
Interest rates are generally sideways, equity futures are flat and oil prices are above $90 per barrel while the market awaits final GDP revisions, ex...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 5:45 PM
First of all, the overriding caveat for today and probably for tomorrow as well is the low volume. Normally, low volume is seen at 60-90% of recent a...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 5:19 PM
Although our directional guidance givers, benchmark Treasury yields, moved higher today, mortgage rates ended the session in a slightly lower position...
Wed, Dec 22 2010, 2:09 PM
It's too bad to refer to a negative trend in a positive way, but it is behaving just as expected. After breaking the triangle convergence, 10's have c...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 11:42 AM
Profit takers and short sellers are making their presence known following the Fed's latest POMO in the long end of the yield curve. Flows have gone ne...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 8:22 AM
The 2.625% coupon bearing 10 year note is currently +8/32 at 94-08 yielding 3.311%. The 2s/10s curve is 3bps flatter at 271 wide. The FNCL 4.5 is UNC...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 5:20 PM
Another data-less day has passed and we've seen another day of chopatility led by technical inflection levels surrounding the Fed's open market operat...
Tue, Dec 21 2010, 1:56 PM
From a big picture perspective...the modest gains we've enjoyed lately have done little to dent the massive declines that played out in December. Reba...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 12:44 PM
Once the Fed's open market operations were done for the day...we started seeing rates make a move higher along with with a modest increase in trading ...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 10:06 AM
I've made a list. I've checked it twice. And yep. Confirmation! I have not finished my holiday shopping yet! Nor am I ready to welcome the holiday spi...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 8:55 AM
December floaters shouldn't be comfortable yet. You should actually be pretty antsy. That's how the market will behave next week at least. The week ah...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 5:34 PM
We started letting War Roomers into MBSonMND last week. So far so good! If you signed up to be a beta tester, be patient with us, your invitation is c...
Mon, Dec 20 2010, 4:30 PM
In this shortened holiday week, in an era already frought with volatility, we'd only expect more of the same. However, with last week's strength in M...
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 11:22 AM
We stand a reasonable chance of confirming the rally that began around mid-day yesterday. Bonds have added to those gains this morning but positive p...
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 8:51 AM
The House of Representatives last night voted 277 to 148 to approve an $858 billion tax package extending the Bush-era tax cuts. After the news S&P fu...
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 5:52 PM
Phew. We made it through yesterday afternoon. And then we made it all the way through today too! Rally intact!! Additional gains secured!!! Reprices f...
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 5:13 PM
Volatility has not been a friend to mortgage rates over the last 30 days, but in the last 36 hours, we've been good buddies!
Fri, Dec 17 2010, 2:08 PM
MBS and treasuries have broken their intraday resistance levels after earlier stability prompted fast$ bond "vigilantes" to cover their short positio...
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 11:15 AM
Lots of data to recap this morning and lots of drama to digest from yesterday. Not much has changed overnight as MBS and treasuries both sit at simila...
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 8:23 AM
Benchmark interest rates spiked yesterday afternoon following the Senate's passage of the tax cut extension bill. About half of those losses were reco...
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 5:57 PM
This may be what you've been waiting for! Over the course of the past few days and weeks, we've been increasingly trying to convey the same message: ...
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 5:22 PM
For now....YAY the bleeding has stopped....For now. Let's see what happens tomorrow before we start getting excited about another false start.
Thu, Dec 16 2010, 2:10 PM
It sounds almost surreal, but the new best execution rate is 5.25%. We just blew through 4.75% and 5.00% in less than a week. Volatility in loan pric...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 12:05 PM
The 10yr note got gappy after the Fed completed their latest QEII POMO at 11am. The move has not been originator friendly. 10s have lost almost all of...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 8:34 AM
Plain and Simple: Inflation hawks really don't have a crutch to lean on if they're looking to explain the recent run up in rates as a factor of increa...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 8:23 AM
The bond market had another bad day yesterday following a strong read on Retail Sales and an improved outlook from the small business sector. Treasur...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 7:52 PM
Only a month ago, best execution 30 year fixed mortgage rates were holding between 4.25% and 4.75%. Heck 4.75% was available on Monday morning! But i...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 5:04 PM
Lots of explanations out there. Not much of a consensus on the actual cause of this mess though. Everybody seems to be grinding a different axe or tak...
Wed, Dec 15 2010, 3:01 PM
Whether your a stock or a bond, you've been selling off hard in the past few minutes. 10 year yields have skyrocketed right past 3.5 and currently si...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 11:27 AM
Rates starting rising after 830am data and they haven't really stopped rising since then. If you are floating, beware, lenders may reprice for the wor...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 8:32 AM
Retail Sales show strong gains in seasonal consumer spending but larger sales volumes also reflect rising energy costs. On the surface this supports t...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 8:28 AM
Benchmark interest rates are higher while equity futures are mixed Tuesday morning ahead of key retail sales data and the afternoon policy statement f...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 6:14 PM
Bonds got killed, revived, and killed again numerous times today. All in all it was about a 20bp rise in YIELDS in the 10 yr which can be seen occurr...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 2:15 PM
The FOMC Statement has been released. As expected there was no change in the Fed's tone or outlook. The December statement is essentially the same as ...
Tue, Dec 14 2010, 1:52 PM
This morning's data was not supportive for bonds. But the overnight session kicked things off in a bad direction even before that. What we've seen s...
