Mon, Nov 22 2010, 11:50 AM
The big story for global financial markets today is the EU/IMF's 80-90 billion euro bailout for Ireland. WARNING: this whole "Ireland thing" is not y...
Mon, Nov 22 2010, 8:34 AM
Interest rates are rallying after the market heard news that Ireland's Prime Minister Brian Cowen had asked for and will receive financial assistance ...
Mon, Nov 22 2010, 6:11 PM
Monday's trading of mortgage backed securities (MBS), which most closely dictate loan pricing offered by lenders, brought welcome changes in the scope...
Mon, Nov 22 2010, 2:55 PM
We don't want to get ahead of ourselves during a holiday shortened trading week, but this choppy price action does offer a few glimmers of hope....mos...
Mon, Nov 22 2010, 1:12 PM
The 2s/10s curve is steeper as dealers distribute 2s while the "getting is good". 10s seem to have printed a local high price and are now retesting th...
Fri, Nov 19 2010, 11:40 AM
Prices of front month FNCL 4.0 are down 1 tick at 101-17+. This follows an afternoon rally yesterday that brought them to nearly 101-24 this morning....
Fri, Nov 19 2010, 8:24 AM
Investor focus is likely to remain on foreign events and speeches today, as no significant economic data is scheduled for release, this implies we sho...
Fri, Nov 19 2010, 4:48 PM
The movements of mortgage rates higher and lower throughout the week have become progressively more tame. There was almost an entire point of differe...
Fri, Nov 19 2010, 3:10 PM
We're long overdue a look at loan pricing. I have charted loan pricing on 4.00%, 4.25%, and 4.50% note rates going back to late June.
Fri, Nov 19 2010, 2:41 PM
Naturally, many billions of extra dollars flowing into the bond market are going to cause movements, and we'll see the extent of those in the charts t...
Thu, Nov 18 2010, 10:07 AM
We've been talking a lot about bearish technical biases in the bond market lately. Besides needing to overcome that rally resistance we've also been ...
Thu, Nov 18 2010, 10:03 AM
Initial Jobless Claims released this morning at 830am showing a small 2k increase from 437,000 last week. The 439k was basically dead on with consens...
Thu, Nov 18 2010, 8:24 AM
Treasuries were mixed on Wednesday, with short maturities gaining a bit of ground while prices for longer assets dropped. The 7- and 10-year maturiti...
Thu, Nov 18 2010, 5:20 PM
What a frustrating week it has been for anyone trying to make sense of the movements in mortgage rates or those hoping to get ahead of the market in o...
Thu, Nov 18 2010, 2:23 PM
A common theme this week has been the near certainty of choppy and volatile movement in between the extremes of recent ranges. The past few hours hav...
Wed, Nov 17 2010, 9:47 AM
Both CPI and Housing starts this morning. Market reaction, if there even is one, has been favorable so far this AM. The slight undertone of resignat...
Wed, Nov 17 2010, 8:26 AM
Two keys events will hit the market this morning, the consumer price index and housing starts. In addition, General Motors is expected to raise more t...
Wed, Nov 17 2010, 5:07 PM
At about 11am yesterday, prices of the Mortgage-Backed-Securities most closely tied to rate sheets had bottomed out and began to climb, reaching highs...
Wed, Nov 17 2010, 4:18 PM
Some parts of the bond market are indeed merely APPROACHING their worst levels of the day, while others are already there. Stocks are fairly flat, an...
Wed, Nov 17 2010, 1:50 PM
The positive momentum discussed this morning continued into the noon hour as 10 yr notes ventured as low as 2.8. Meanwhile, MBS flirted with the 102-...
Tue, Nov 16 2010, 11:15 AM
Positive progress has stalled and "rate sheet influential" MBS coupon prices are falling again. REPRICES FOR THE WORSE HAVE BEEN REPORTED
Tue, Nov 16 2010, 10:09 AM
This morning's most significant data, October PPI, printed at +0.4%, weaker than the +0.8% expectation. Considering the railing bonds have taken of l...
Tue, Nov 16 2010, 8:24 AM
The Day Ahead: Producer Price Index, TIC Flows, IP, NAHB Confidence
Tue, Nov 16 2010, 6:22 PM
After recapturing some of the losses from yesterday, it was right back into sell mode as prices hurtled disturbingly toward even lower prices than yes...
Tue, Nov 16 2010, 2:20 PM
Railroaded... Now there's a good figure of speech, and one that is better defined by examples that by the dictionary. Webster says: " a : to convict...
Mon, Nov 15 2010, 10:26 AM
Most of the production MBS stack had been down nearly a full point this morning but have since battled back. The 3.5 is currently down 21 ticks at 98...
Mon, Nov 15 2010, 8:34 AM
There’s no shortage of data in the week ahead. Key events include retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, plus key inflation data and a f...
Mon, Nov 15 2010, 6:49 PM
Treasuries got smoked again, with another huge uptick in intermediate-maturity yields. The 10-year closed down almost 1 ½ points from Friday’s close, ...
Mon, Nov 15 2010, 4:36 PM
Tension remains high in the primary mortgage market as mortgage rates have extended their losing streak. We're in a tough spot here...
Mon, Nov 15 2010, 3:34 PM
At 1:35 PM, the Fannie 4.0 peaked at 102-02. Just an hour later, prices had fallen to 101-20 before sliding to 101-15 (pretty much this AM's levels) ...
Mon, Nov 15 2010, 1:59 PM
Bonds continue to rally and/or hold their ground despite a neutral to bullish retail sales report as well as rallying stocks. This is a potential con...
Fri, Nov 12 2010, 12:39 PM
Not much green on my trading screens today, unless you look at yields and volatility, those are up! Otherwise the only other thing rallying is a herd ...
Fri, Nov 12 2010, 10:10 AM
Our tension level remains high this morning as tactical day traders squeeze out every last drop of short seller profit in the belly of the curve all t...
Fri, Nov 12 2010, 8:43 AM
Benchmark interest rates traded lower early in the overnight session but began to tick higher as London went to work around 3am. Also, the tumble in ...
Fri, Nov 12 2010, 6:09 PM
There were moments of hope, but for the most part we watched helplessly as the market moved in the wrong direction. And today. Ugh. Today was the icin...
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 10:22 AM
Treasury yields have yet to hit a ceiling and "rate sheet influential" MBS prices have yet to find a floor. I am not panicking. I repeat. I am not pan...
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 8:28 AM
Interest rates are continuing to trek higher while equity futures are pointing lower ahead of a busy schedule of macroeconomic data and events.
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 6:43 PM
QEII is here. This is the event that will help mortgage rates move back below 4.00% again. Patience is counting down without blasting off.
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 5:20 PM
The bond market is closed tomorrow, this will give us plenty of time to ponder what happens on Friday and when we should be expecting mortgage rates t...
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 2:05 PM
The Fed will conduct 18 open market asset purchases over the next 19 trading sessions. They will spend about $105 billion which works out to around $5...
Wed, Nov 10 2010, 1:15 PM
Plain and Simple: the Fed will not focus their QEII purchases in the ultra long-end of the yield curve. Why buy 'em, especially if you're worried abou...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 12:19 PM
MBS prices are well off their early AM highs and we will probably see reprices for the worse following the TSY auction unless there is a rally in the ...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 10:55 AM
The Treasury Department will announce the results of their $24 billion 10yr note fundraiser at 1pm. Pre-auction price/yield concessions are obvious as...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 8:13 AM
We've seen very light origination flows over past three sessions. This means lock desks are underhedged and we'll need to see secondary managers add s...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 4:30 PM
I think it's safe to say your float boat took on water today. Benchmark Treasury yields seemed to have no ceiling and MBS prices appeared to have no f...
Tue, Nov 9 2010, 1:05 PM
There was an obvious increase in trading activity immediately after the auction results were released. The knee jerk move was higher in price/lower in...
Mon, Nov 8 2010, 8:55 AM
The week ahead brings little new data. The highlight of the economic calendar is the trade deficit on Wednesday and the month’s first consumer sentime...
Mon, Nov 8 2010, 4:48 PM
MY OUTLOOK: SEE ABOVE STATEMENT. ****NO CHANGE NO CHANGE NO CHANGE****
Mon, Nov 8 2010, 4:17 PM
Today is Class A Notification Day in the secondary mortgage market. Class A MBS coupons consist of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 30 year loan notes. Nove...
Mon, Nov 8 2010, 1:07 PM
Directs and Indirects seemed hesitant to chase after the short end of the curve but dealers were aggressive, which kept the auction from getting slopp...
