Fri, Jul 8 2016, 5:36 PM
I wouldn't go so far as to say "the impossible happened today," but at the very least, we could call it "the improbable." A lot was at stake headin...
Thu, Jul 7 2016, 9:00 AM
After an epic run to all-time Treasury lows (and nearly all-time mortgage rate lows) bond markets are flashing warning signs about a bounce. This sor...
Thu, Jul 7 2016, 4:51 PM
Bonds slightly weaker overnight; no major drama
AM employment data (ADP and Jobless Claims) prompted more selling
Stock prices and bond yields b...
Wed, Jul 6 2016, 8:42 AM
Bond markets enter domestic session at new all-time low yields
Yet again, there are no stand-out, individual motivations
All about he big pictu...
Wed, Jul 6 2016, 5:25 PM
Treasury yields hit new intraday all-time lows overnight
Traders were lined up to sell at the open (profit-taking)
Weakness continued after stro...
Tue, Jul 5 2016, 9:36 AM
Global yields begin week at new all-time lows
Underlying reasons haven't changed
What ends this?
If you only look at the US as a represent...
Tue, Jul 5 2016, 4:00 PM
10yr yields traded well into the 1.3's, surpassing previous low of 1.381
No specific motivation at home or abroad, though there are several support...
Fri, Jul 1 2016, 9:58 AM
10yr yield hit 1.382 overnight
All-time low was 1.381 in July 2012
Welcome to the New Normal
We had a great discussion in the live chat on...
Fri, Jul 1 2016, 3:50 PM
Strong overnight pop in Treasuries, ECB headlines cited
Record low 30yr bond yield and near-record low in 10yr yield
Bonds lost ground after Eur...
Thu, Jun 30 2016, 9:09 AM
Bonds remain generally strong despite yesterday's losses
There continues to be a good line in the sand that can warn against a bigger shift
Furt...
Thu, Jun 30 2016, 6:41 PM
Bonds bounced back as month-end buying hit its stride
Second wind came from Bank of England comments on likely stimulus
Yields bounced higher...
Wed, Jun 29 2016, 9:32 AM
Woops! I gave away the formula for 99% of any market analysis over the past week, but I have ...
Wed, Jun 29 2016, 4:45 PM
Bonds continued holding ultra-narrow post-Brexit range until 3pm
At that point, Treasuries spiked aggressively and MBS eventually followed
Initi...
Tue, Jun 28 2016, 9:09 AM
Bond rallies don't last forever
2 ways for rates to move higher: temporary, nominal corrections, and full-scale reversals
Here's one easy way to...
Tue, Jun 28 2016, 5:12 PM
Bond markets grudgingly gave up some gains, but only relative to previous close
Relative to yesterday's average trading levels, today was flat
N...
Mon, Jun 27 2016, 9:45 AM
Oftentimes, a massive surge to long-term lows is met with a quick snap back to the safety of the previous range. So far, the current massive surge is...
Mon, Jun 27 2016, 4:53 PM
Brexit fallout continues. That's really all we got
Fortunately, that's a huge positive for bond markets
10yr yields dropped more than 10bps
...
Fri, Jun 24 2016, 12:20 AM
FOLLOW THE LATEST BREXIT UPDATES on MBS LIVE with FREE TRIAL CODE: BREXIT
So what are we seeing? At this point, most major media outlets a...
Fri, Jun 24 2016, 9:25 AM
For a variety of reasons and for more than a year, the MBS Live community and I have periodically revisited the general topic of a "brave new world." ...
Fri, Jun 24 2016, 4:32 PM
10yr yields were as low as 1.406 overnight, but moved up to the mid 1.5's by the close
MBS were up nearly 7/8ths of a point at their best, but will...
Thu, Jun 23 2016, 8:30 AM
2 more Brexit polls out overnight. Both leaning toward "remain"
"Remain" = terrible for bond markets
More polls and possibly even some early re...
Thu, Jun 23 2016, 3:56 PM
Bonds bumped higher in yield by Brexit polls overnight
Brexit vote is ongoing and results won't be final until early tomorrow morning
No impact ...
Wed, Jun 22 2016, 9:12 AM
Yellen's congressional testimony moves to House Financial Services Committee--always a "good show."
Bond markets consider leveling-off ahead of Bre...
Wed, Jun 22 2016, 4:04 PM
Bonds make token gains ahead of Brexit day
Brexit poll and Treasury auction helped
But trading levels are still well above "the gap" set on Mond...
Tue, Jun 21 2016, 8:51 AM
"Consolidation" would mean yesterday's high yields were a short-term ceiling
"Correction" would mean more pain for bond markets
Yellen speaks at...
Tue, Jun 21 2016, 4:03 PM
Treasuries and MBS spent most of morning in positive territory
Weakness kicked in during/after Yellen testimony
Markets were waiting for encore ...
Mon, Jun 20 2016, 8:32 AM
Bond markets begin week significantly weaker as global markets back down on 'Brexit' trades
10yr yields created a big gap from last week's levels
...
Mon, Jun 20 2016, 4:31 PM
Bond selling pressure followed-through from last week
Updated Brexit polls provided a tangible justification
Intangible math provided momentum (...
Fri, Jun 17 2016, 9:00 AM
Is it time to freak out?
No, not yet
Bond yields are at long term lows and that's both exciting and scary. It's exciting for obvious reasons...
Fri, Jun 17 2016, 4:23 PM
Today's pull-back really began yesterday, and involved stocks moving higher with bond yields
Momentum continued through the overnight session for...
Thu, Jun 16 2016, 8:33 AM
Yesterday's FOMC Announcement was largely a diversion, but only because there happen to be more important things going on in the bigger picture. The ...
Thu, Jun 16 2016, 4:44 PM
Bonds rode overnight momentum to best levels in 3+ years
Stock selling is definitely part of the equation
Brexit drama now involves murder, whic...
Wed, Jun 15 2016, 9:17 AM
Bonds move up and down in small picture
In BIG picture, global race toward zero continues, as evidenced by past few days
Oh yeah... and the Fed ...
Wed, Jun 15 2016, 4:52 PM
The Fed confirmed they had an eye on next NFP
rate hike outlook was downgraded, as was growth
They're concerned about confirmation of labor mark...
Wed, Jun 15 2016, 2:02 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Marc...
Tue, Jun 14 2016, 8:32 AM
If you were awake early enough this morning and wanted to mark history by paying the government of the world's largest economy for the right to lend m...
Tue, Jun 14 2016, 5:31 PM
10yr yields were as low as 1.567 early
Fannie 3.0s were as high as 103-04
Both were driven by Europe (sub-zero German 10yr) and both rebounded w...
Tue, Jun 14 2016, 2:40 PM
Most of the following is a condensed, informal, mental note-taking, but for those who don't even want to read that, here are the ultra condensed bul...
Mon, Jun 13 2016, 9:07 AM
The latest chapter for global bond markets began with the Fed's attempts in mid-May to 'convince' investors that they were serious about hiking rates ...
Mon, Jun 13 2016, 5:35 PM
European bonds did not lead the way lower for a change
But European (and domestic) stock markets sure did
10yr yields fell 3.1 bps to 1.613 as S...
Fri, Jun 10 2016, 9:18 AM
10yr yields officially closed below 2016's range boundary yesterday
Today beginning in even stronger territory
Looking at other markets, this o...
Fri, Jun 10 2016, 5:49 PM
Brexit leads European panic
European panic leads bond yields lower
Europe gets their fill just after 10am and markets reverse
US bond markets...
Thu, Jun 9 2016, 9:28 AM
European bond buying failed to provide a big boost yesterday
Bonds instead getting a boost today, right out of the gate, but not exclusively from E...
Thu, Jun 9 2016, 5:28 PM
MBS ended 1 tick lower, but apart from yesterday, it tied the best closing levels in more than a year
10yr yields ended at 1.682, 2.2bps lower
E...
Wed, Jun 8 2016, 8:40 AM
The last time the European Central Bank officially embarked on a big bond buying campaign, we were a few months into 2015 and US rates had already b...
Wed, Jun 8 2016, 5:12 PM
10yr yields hit 1.697 today, matching last Friday's best levels--the lowest since April 7th
Less than 2bps of movement all day though!
Fannie 3....
Tue, Jun 7 2016, 9:42 AM
Bonds have maintained long-term consolidation trend almost all year
We have yet to see a meaningful attempt to break out
But such an attempt mus...
Tue, Jun 7 2016, 5:25 PM
10yr German Bunds hit 0.048 today
Tomorrow marks inception of Europe's corporate bond buying program
US bond markets rallied during European hou...
Mon, Jun 6 2016, 9:36 AM
Very light economic calendar this week
Fed Announcement next week
Yellen speaks later today (jobs data will invariably come up)
bond yields a...
Mon, Jun 6 2016, 5:17 PM
Bonds slightly weaker for no overt reasons
Yellen speech hotly anticipated and quickly overlooked
Taken together with Friday's gains, today mean...
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