Fri, Nov 4 2016, 5:00 PM
I've seen today's jobs report referred to as both stronger and weaker in several ways. At worst, it was "mixed," and generally erred on the stronge...
Thu, Nov 3 2016, 9:53 AM
There can be no doubt that bond markets are responding to recent political headlines. But there's even less of a doubt that stock markets are far mor...
Thu, Nov 3 2016, 4:57 PM
Thank the overnight trading session for an anticlimactic day. It set a healthy range of highs and lows that daytime trading never managed to break....
Wed, Nov 2 2016, 9:26 AM
Let's not get too excited, but bonds have begun an attempt to bounce at the higher side of their multi-month trend channel (the "uptrend" leading to...
Wed, Nov 2 2016, 5:25 PM
Taken in and of itself, today's Fed statement was "net-hawkish." That means, relative to the last announcement, the verbiage took small but noticea...
Wed, Nov 2 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July...
Tue, Nov 1 2016, 9:54 AM
The Summer months sure were great for bond markets, weren't they? Massive rally in June, all-time low yields in July, and reasonable stability just o...
Tue, Nov 1 2016, 5:40 PM
The political theater is ramping up quickly, with unexpected afternoon twitter headlines stealing the show from longstanding market movers like ISM ...
Mon, Oct 31 2016, 10:15 AM
It's no mystery that the prevailing trend in bond markets has been negative for several months. At first , this was no big deal, as Treasury yields ...
Mon, Oct 31 2016, 5:09 PM
The last trading day of any given month is more volatile and more actively traded than the average trading day. That wasn't the case today, which i...
Fri, Oct 28 2016, 10:26 AM
It's going to be a while until we can truly sort out whether the current bout of bond market weakness is the same sort of correction seen in early 201...
Fri, Oct 28 2016, 4:48 PM
After 2 days of heavy selling in global bond markets, today was a relative paradise of inactivity. Volume remained rather high by historical standard...
Thu, Oct 27 2016, 9:52 AM
Paul McCartney will only be signing about "bonds on the run" if he's in the market for a mortgage, because bonds are running in the wrong direction. ...
Thu, Oct 27 2016, 6:50 PM
Traders who reported seeing buying signals as 10yr yields approached 1.80 earlier this week would surely like to borrow a time machine . In retrospe...
Wed, Oct 26 2016, 9:37 AM
Last week provided some hope for bond markets due to a relatively strong move off the recent highs. 10yr yields recovered from the previous week's 1....
Wed, Oct 26 2016, 5:41 PM
Bonds were stronger during Asian market hours this morning, but things changed quickly as European trading got underway. Relative to Treasuries, Euro...
Tue, Oct 25 2016, 9:37 AM
At the risk of repeating a common refrain, rates have been rising gradually since July and in a more volatile way since early September. I've chalked...
Tue, Oct 25 2016, 4:58 PM
On the surface, today was a boring day for bond markets. 10yr yields ended less than a bp lower than yesterday's close and Fannie 3.0 MBS were comple...
Mon, Oct 24 2016, 9:33 AM
Rates and yields have been trending steadily higher since hitting all-time lows in early July. Those lows were most immediately attributable to the B...
Mon, Oct 24 2016, 5:34 PM
Bond markets ended the day in moderately weaker territory today, despite starting out in the Green. What happened?
Today was refreshingly straight...
Fri, Oct 21 2016, 10:04 AM
As can be seen in this morning's chart (and remembered in the hearts and minds of loan originators who closely follow market movements), October has b...
Fri, Oct 21 2016, 4:38 PM
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and rallied in the morning hours along with European bond markets. Most of the volume was in before 9:45 and th...
Thu, Oct 20 2016, 9:59 AM
The Fed is the ECB President Mario Draghi's childhood hero (with 'childhood' being a metaphorical term for the infancy of the ECB's response to the 20...
Thu, Oct 20 2016, 4:44 PM
Today was pretty anticlimactic . Most of my analysis is already available in the Day Ahead. If you're not the link-clicking type, it basically says...
Wed, Oct 19 2016, 9:45 AM
After worldwide rates hit all-time lows on the heels of Brexit, they consolidated in a narrow, sideways pattern until someone came up with the next pl...
Wed, Oct 19 2016, 4:56 PM
Bond markets spent yet another day consolidating inside their recent range. In terms of 10yr yields that means rates have fallen from last Friday's h...
Tue, Oct 18 2016, 9:47 AM
As we approach Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and press conference, we are seeing a clearer display of underlying market motivat...
Tue, Oct 18 2016, 5:19 PM
If you've been following along with updates on MBS Live , today's recap will be old hat. Long story short, bonds have been selling off in October an...
Mon, Oct 17 2016, 9:43 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been one of the driving forces behind ultra-low rates around the world for several years, thanks to an aggressive...
Mon, Oct 17 2016, 5:33 PM
It could be a volatile week for bond markets, and that volatility could kick the ongoing negative trend into higher gear. It would have taken quite ...
Fri, Oct 14 2016, 10:01 AM
Never forget, even in a perpetual long-term downtrend--even in a downtrend with more room to run in the bigger picture--there will be corrections towa...
Fri, Oct 14 2016, 5:52 PM
Ahhh, the good old mystery move! There are so many potential contributors to this afternoon's sharp sell-off in bonds that it scarcely makes sense to...
Thu, Oct 13 2016, 9:12 AM
Even though yields have made new intraday highs on 9 out of the last 9 days, we may have seen some early clues about the selling trend leveling-off....
Thu, Oct 13 2016, 5:04 PM
Corrections and consolidations are a natural part of market movements. It's uncommon for losing streaks to last more than 8 straight days without rep...
Wed, Oct 12 2016, 9:12 AM
Today brings the release of the MINUTES from the most recent FOMC meeting. This is distinct event from the ANNOUNCEMENT that happened about 3 weeks...
Wed, Oct 12 2016, 5:28 PM
No one was really sure what the Fed Minutes possibly could have said to surprise markets, but that didn't stop traders from pricing-in a bit of defe...
Tue, Oct 11 2016, 9:21 AM
Bond markets offered a glimmer or two of hope last week as yields looked to be leveling off heading into Columbus Day weekend. In other words, 10yr...
Tue, Oct 11 2016, 4:46 PM
Bond markets were weaker out of the gate this morning as the US got caught up with the rest of the world after a "risk-on" Monday session for most o...
Fri, Oct 7 2016, 9:56 AM
The rest of the day will be all about bond markets sorting out their reaction to this morning's decent NFP numbers. Payrolls hit 156k in September, s...
Fri, Oct 7 2016, 4:07 PM
Let's clear this up at the outset: when we talk about "volatility" these days, it's not the same volatility that presided over some of the multi-poi...
Thu, Oct 6 2016, 10:06 AM
Things continue to be serious for bond markets (MBS Live members already have their first alert on the day--a rarity before 10am--as well as a gener...
Thu, Oct 6 2016, 5:33 PM
Bond markets were already fairly close to the important technical levels near 1.75% (10yr yields) earlier this morning, and they continued getting pu...
Wed, Oct 5 2016, 9:25 AM
You might remember some seemingly dramatic headlines from early September when rates attempted their first big break of the dominant range (e.g. "Yes ...
Wed, Oct 5 2016, 4:42 PM
It was a pretty straightforward trading day considering what's at stake in the bigger picture. Bonds were under slight pressure overnight, but were...
Tue, Oct 4 2016, 9:55 AM
There are no significant economic reports or scheduled events on tap for today. This will give us an opportunity to feel out the new trading ideas,...
Tue, Oct 4 2016, 3:51 PM
Bonds tanked today and at first glance, there weren't any great explanations as to why. But headlines quickly surfaced regarding the European Central...
Mon, Oct 3 2016, 9:15 AM
As October begins, bond markets are pretty close to trading levels seen at the end of August--close enough to call September a "flat month" anyway. ...
Mon, Oct 3 2016, 5:41 PM
Almost like clockwork, bond markets weakened JUST enough to cast doubt on their commitment to reentering the sub-1.60% range. This follows a week of ...
Fri, Sep 30 2016, 9:14 AM
As we approach the rest of the trading day, keep the info from this month/quarter-end bond buying primer in mind. Remember that the bond market unoff...
Fri, Sep 30 2016, 5:04 PM
While there has been a good amount of volatility in September, it was fairly flat, relative to August's latest levels. Up until this week, that was...
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