Wed, Jun 15 2016, 9:17 AM
Bonds move up and down in small picture
In BIG picture, global race toward zero continues, as evidenced by past few days
Oh yeah... and the Fed ...
Wed, Jun 15 2016, 4:52 PM
The Fed confirmed they had an eye on next NFP
rate hike outlook was downgraded, as was growth
They're concerned about confirmation of labor mark...
Wed, Jun 15 2016, 2:02 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Marc...
Tue, Jun 14 2016, 8:32 AM
If you were awake early enough this morning and wanted to mark history by paying the government of the world's largest economy for the right to lend m...
Tue, Jun 14 2016, 5:31 PM
10yr yields were as low as 1.567 early
Fannie 3.0s were as high as 103-04
Both were driven by Europe (sub-zero German 10yr) and both rebounded w...
Tue, Jun 14 2016, 2:40 PM
Most of the following is a condensed, informal, mental note-taking, but for those who don't even want to read that, here are the ultra condensed bul...
Mon, Jun 13 2016, 9:07 AM
The latest chapter for global bond markets began with the Fed's attempts in mid-May to 'convince' investors that they were serious about hiking rates ...
Mon, Jun 13 2016, 5:35 PM
European bonds did not lead the way lower for a change
But European (and domestic) stock markets sure did
10yr yields fell 3.1 bps to 1.613 as S...
Fri, Jun 10 2016, 9:18 AM
10yr yields officially closed below 2016's range boundary yesterday
Today beginning in even stronger territory
Looking at other markets, this o...
Fri, Jun 10 2016, 5:49 PM
Brexit leads European panic
European panic leads bond yields lower
Europe gets their fill just after 10am and markets reverse
US bond markets...
Thu, Jun 9 2016, 9:28 AM
European bond buying failed to provide a big boost yesterday
Bonds instead getting a boost today, right out of the gate, but not exclusively from E...
Thu, Jun 9 2016, 5:28 PM
MBS ended 1 tick lower, but apart from yesterday, it tied the best closing levels in more than a year
10yr yields ended at 1.682, 2.2bps lower
E...
Wed, Jun 8 2016, 8:40 AM
The last time the European Central Bank officially embarked on a big bond buying campaign, we were a few months into 2015 and US rates had already b...
Wed, Jun 8 2016, 5:12 PM
10yr yields hit 1.697 today, matching last Friday's best levels--the lowest since April 7th
Less than 2bps of movement all day though!
Fannie 3....
Tue, Jun 7 2016, 9:42 AM
Bonds have maintained long-term consolidation trend almost all year
We have yet to see a meaningful attempt to break out
But such an attempt mus...
Tue, Jun 7 2016, 5:25 PM
10yr German Bunds hit 0.048 today
Tomorrow marks inception of Europe's corporate bond buying program
US bond markets rallied during European hou...
Mon, Jun 6 2016, 9:36 AM
Very light economic calendar this week
Fed Announcement next week
Yellen speaks later today (jobs data will invariably come up)
bond yields a...
Mon, Jun 6 2016, 5:17 PM
Bonds slightly weaker for no overt reasons
Yellen speech hotly anticipated and quickly overlooked
Taken together with Friday's gains, today mean...
Fri, Jun 3 2016, 8:17 AM
Strong, stable payroll growth is old news. Yet another NFP reading north of 150k or another 5%-ish unemployment reading are just a few more bricks in...
Fri, Jun 3 2016, 4:35 PM
Jobs reports generally don't move markets any more
But they do when they're this far from the forecast
NFP came in at 38k vs 164k
This adds t...
Thu, Jun 2 2016, 8:19 AM
ADP data rescheduled for today
ECB Press Conference on tap
Not much else by way of data
Slow trickle of gains makes for potential momentum sh...
Thu, Jun 2 2016, 4:30 PM
Bonds rallied on rate-friendly press conference from European Central Bank
Gains subsided as Europe closed
Bounce in oil and stocks may have con...
Wed, Jun 1 2016, 8:20 AM
Yesterday was tense at moments, with several attempts made to break the range
Not only did the range hold, but we quickly moved back to the other s...
Wed, Jun 1 2016, 4:44 PM
Bond markets stronger overnight
New 2-week lows in 10yr yields, but weaker bounce after ISM
Biggest issue with ISM was Prices Paid (63.5 vs 59.8...
Tue, May 31 2016, 8:29 AM
Last week's moderate resilience could have been temporary due to 'month-end'
This could also help today, to some extent
If it doesn't, it's the ...
Tue, May 31 2016, 5:05 PM
Bonds opened weaker as Yellen's Friday comments reverberated
data was largely ignored
Bonds rallied after Brexit poll and technical ceiling in 1...
Fri, May 27 2016, 8:27 AM
GDP at 8:30am won't matter
Consumer Sentiment at 10am won't matter
Yellen at 10:30am (and 1:15pm) won't matter
All of the above--but especial...
Fri, May 27 2016, 2:05 PM
GDP was +0.8 vs +0.9 forecast this morning
Consumer Sentiment was 94.7 vs 95.4
Inflation expectations were the lowest since 2010
But markets ...
Thu, May 26 2016, 9:02 AM
Less about data and more about Fed outlook
3.5-day weekend is also a consideration for tradeflows
2 distinct options correspond to holding vs b...
Thu, May 26 2016, 5:59 PM
Early month-end trading environment provided constant support
Strong Durable Goods headline didn't matter
gains were linear into the noon hour, ...
Wed, May 25 2016, 9:02 AM
Today brings 5yr Treasury auction = "supply pressure"
Technical analysis is still negative
Still, we can hope to get lucky with help from 'mont...
Wed, May 25 2016, 4:34 PM
Bonds have been sideways to slightly weaker since last week's FOMC Minutes
Markets not only coming to terms with increased June/July rate hike odds...
Tue, May 24 2016, 9:11 AM
Bonds continue sideways grind in bigger picture
Lots of focus remaining on Oil prices in news and analytical community
Is it justified?
As...
Tue, May 24 2016, 5:37 PM
Bonds were weaker throughout European hours (3am to 1pm)
Stock prices moved significantly higher and were well-correlated with bond losses
10yr ...
Mon, May 23 2016, 9:43 AM
After 2012, low rates in US have followed Europe
Even then, US rates have set their own limits
Now we're bouncing along those limits again and '...
Mon, May 23 2016, 5:18 PM
The title says it all
Overnight session was calm
European bonds were weaker at the close, putting pressure on US bond markets
Bonds bounced b...
Fri, May 20 2016, 9:14 AM
It is the bigger picture, as opposed to day-to-day minutia that will drive trading momentum
Trading levels and technicals suggest an utterly indeci...
Fri, May 20 2016, 5:04 PM
One of the most anticlimactic days in recent memory
bonds did nothing other than shuffle through some incidental 'housekeeping' trades
yields cl...
Thu, May 19 2016, 8:53 AM
Yesterday was a wake-up call, forcing us to think about defense vs offense
Shorter term trends already under attack
longer term trends aren't to...
Thu, May 19 2016, 4:54 PM
Bonds undergo token correction after yesterday's rout
technicals remain precarious
Fed speeches were in focus, but turned out to be fairly non...
Wed, May 18 2016, 9:06 AM
Just looking at 10yr or MBS doesn't paint too much of a picture
But when we compare longer-term with shorter-term debt, things become clear
Bond...
Wed, May 18 2016, 5:02 PM
Anxiety was growing yesterday about the Fed Minutes surprising
Bonds weakened
The Fed Minutes surprised
Bonds weakened some more
This coul...
Tue, May 17 2016, 8:22 AM
"Bad" is a relative term, but momentum may be shifting
Today's trading will be pivotal in determining that
The stakes are not too high, for now ...
Tue, May 17 2016, 5:34 PM
2 things: tomorrow's FOMC Minutes and Today's Dell corporate bond
Both put pressure on bond markets
majority of weakness was in afternoon ...
Mon, May 16 2016, 9:03 AM
Bonds have stayed strong, despite apparent headwinds
Technicals suggest we're due for a bounce
Such a bounce could still be part of a broader, p...
Mon, May 16 2016, 5:20 PM
Bond markets began in slightly weaker territory and kept losing ground
Most of the losses were in by 10am as corporate issuance became the trade...
Fri, May 13 2016, 8:23 AM
10yr yields still consolidating in bigger picture.
"triangles" often throw head-fakes
Stocks' fate still unclear
Retail Sales is only big-...
Fri, May 13 2016, 5:49 PM
Modestly strong overnight session gave way to losses following Retail Sales data
Bonds never went too red and then gradually found footing
No ...
Thu, May 12 2016, 8:50 AM
1.72 has been more of a roadblock than any other level for 10yr yields
We're currently at risk of bouncing there
Today's data may not help, bu...
Thu, May 12 2016, 5:10 PM
bond markets took a hit overnight and never fully recovered
Yields topped out heading into the NYSE open and again after the auction
30yr auctio...
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