Thu, Jul 21 2016, 5:51 PM
Any time we watch a sideways range rates with fairly clear technical boundaries, it's only natural to hope that the upper boundary will hold up in the...
Wed, Jul 20 2016, 9:25 AM
Bond yields hit all time lows. Then they bounced higher. Widespread discussion ensued on the next "key levels" to watch. The goal, of course, is ...
Wed, Jul 20 2016, 4:30 PM
Over the past two days there has been a relative explosion of analyst interviews (from big firms like JP Morgan , etc.) calling for big, inevitable...
Tue, Jul 19 2016, 8:49 AM
The concept of "the gap" is one of the most basic when it comes to analyzing charts of financial market movement. Under the most common definition of...
Tue, Jul 19 2016, 5:15 PM
In the magical sharing circle that is global financial markets, the "talking stick" was passed to bonds, as it is every day. But rather than share a ...
Mon, Jul 18 2016, 9:33 AM
Have you noticed a few more email auto-responses starting late last week? Summer travel season is in full swing and this week is an especially good "...
Mon, Jul 18 2016, 6:18 PM
Friday afternoon was a complicated thing to think about when it comes to markets and their motivations for movement. Given the time of day that the T...
Fri, Jul 15 2016, 8:31 AM
Granted, economic data in the US is far from the only game in town at the moment. In fact, it's probably one of the least important games there is, ...
Fri, Jul 15 2016, 6:34 PM
Except for the very end of the trading session, today was all about domestic economic data and all about the logical bond market weakness that followe...
Thu, Jul 14 2016, 8:30 AM
Bonds are back on the ropes again to start the day as the Bank of England (BOE) surprised markets by holding rates steady. This was their way of fl...
Thu, Jul 14 2016, 5:20 PM
Bond markets weakened overnight as Yen/USD surged higher (meaning Yen is weakening versus the dollar). This has to do with the potential for new stim...
Wed, Jul 13 2016, 9:06 AM
Have you ever wondered why technical analysts and other seemingly savvy market commentators tend to reference moving averages that are nice, round nu...
Wed, Jul 13 2016, 6:04 PM
US bond markets were completely done moving by the time the domestic session began. Case in point, 10yr yields ended the day at 1.473, exactly the sa...
Tue, Jul 12 2016, 9:21 AM
Back in the good old days during the infancy of the financial crisis, much was made of Bernanke's study of Japan's massive, long term , secular defla...
Tue, Jul 12 2016, 6:42 PM
The very next day after Brexit headlines sunk 10yr yields to long-term lows in late June, we began talking about "1.53%" in 10yr Treasury yields. Thi...
Mon, Jul 11 2016, 9:04 AM
To whatever extent economic data matters, the week ahead will gradually crescendo by Friday, which boasts the two most important reports: CPI and Ret...
Mon, Jul 11 2016, 5:41 PM
If I didn't know any better, I'd say it looked like MBS were simply "tired of moving" in relative proportion to Treasuries as the latter undergo some ...
Fri, Jul 8 2016, 8:20 AM
Perhaps as long ago as April 2014, when the first major talk of the European Central Bank's impending QE plan began circulating, domestic economic dat...
Fri, Jul 8 2016, 5:36 PM
I wouldn't go so far as to say "the impossible happened today," but at the very least, we could call it "the improbable." A lot was at stake headin...
Thu, Jul 7 2016, 9:00 AM
After an epic run to all-time Treasury lows (and nearly all-time mortgage rate lows) bond markets are flashing warning signs about a bounce. This sor...
Thu, Jul 7 2016, 4:51 PM
Bonds slightly weaker overnight; no major drama
AM employment data (ADP and Jobless Claims) prompted more selling
Stock prices and bond yields b...
Wed, Jul 6 2016, 8:42 AM
Bond markets enter domestic session at new all-time low yields
Yet again, there are no stand-out, individual motivations
All about he big pictu...
Wed, Jul 6 2016, 5:25 PM
Treasury yields hit new intraday all-time lows overnight
Traders were lined up to sell at the open (profit-taking)
Weakness continued after stro...
Tue, Jul 5 2016, 9:36 AM
Global yields begin week at new all-time lows
Underlying reasons haven't changed
What ends this?
If you only look at the US as a represent...
Tue, Jul 5 2016, 4:00 PM
10yr yields traded well into the 1.3's, surpassing previous low of 1.381
No specific motivation at home or abroad, though there are several support...
Fri, Jul 1 2016, 9:58 AM
10yr yield hit 1.382 overnight
All-time low was 1.381 in July 2012
Welcome to the New Normal
We had a great discussion in the live chat on...
Fri, Jul 1 2016, 3:50 PM
Strong overnight pop in Treasuries, ECB headlines cited
Record low 30yr bond yield and near-record low in 10yr yield
Bonds lost ground after Eur...
Thu, Jun 30 2016, 9:09 AM
Bonds remain generally strong despite yesterday's losses
There continues to be a good line in the sand that can warn against a bigger shift
Furt...
Thu, Jun 30 2016, 6:41 PM
Bonds bounced back as month-end buying hit its stride
Second wind came from Bank of England comments on likely stimulus
Yields bounced higher...
Wed, Jun 29 2016, 9:32 AM
Woops! I gave away the formula for 99% of any market analysis over the past week, but I have ...
Wed, Jun 29 2016, 4:45 PM
Bonds continued holding ultra-narrow post-Brexit range until 3pm
At that point, Treasuries spiked aggressively and MBS eventually followed
Initi...
Tue, Jun 28 2016, 9:09 AM
Bond rallies don't last forever
2 ways for rates to move higher: temporary, nominal corrections, and full-scale reversals
Here's one easy way to...
Tue, Jun 28 2016, 5:12 PM
Bond markets grudgingly gave up some gains, but only relative to previous close
Relative to yesterday's average trading levels, today was flat
N...
Mon, Jun 27 2016, 9:45 AM
Oftentimes, a massive surge to long-term lows is met with a quick snap back to the safety of the previous range. So far, the current massive surge is...
Mon, Jun 27 2016, 4:53 PM
Brexit fallout continues. That's really all we got
Fortunately, that's a huge positive for bond markets
10yr yields dropped more than 10bps
...
Fri, Jun 24 2016, 12:20 AM
FOLLOW THE LATEST BREXIT UPDATES on MBS LIVE with FREE TRIAL CODE: BREXIT
So what are we seeing? At this point, most major media outlets a...
Fri, Jun 24 2016, 9:25 AM
For a variety of reasons and for more than a year, the MBS Live community and I have periodically revisited the general topic of a "brave new world." ...
Fri, Jun 24 2016, 4:32 PM
10yr yields were as low as 1.406 overnight, but moved up to the mid 1.5's by the close
MBS were up nearly 7/8ths of a point at their best, but will...
Thu, Jun 23 2016, 8:30 AM
2 more Brexit polls out overnight. Both leaning toward "remain"
"Remain" = terrible for bond markets
More polls and possibly even some early re...
Thu, Jun 23 2016, 3:56 PM
Bonds bumped higher in yield by Brexit polls overnight
Brexit vote is ongoing and results won't be final until early tomorrow morning
No impact ...
Wed, Jun 22 2016, 9:12 AM
Yellen's congressional testimony moves to House Financial Services Committee--always a "good show."
Bond markets consider leveling-off ahead of Bre...
Wed, Jun 22 2016, 4:04 PM
Bonds make token gains ahead of Brexit day
Brexit poll and Treasury auction helped
But trading levels are still well above "the gap" set on Mond...
Tue, Jun 21 2016, 8:51 AM
"Consolidation" would mean yesterday's high yields were a short-term ceiling
"Correction" would mean more pain for bond markets
Yellen speaks at...
Tue, Jun 21 2016, 4:03 PM
Treasuries and MBS spent most of morning in positive territory
Weakness kicked in during/after Yellen testimony
Markets were waiting for encore ...
Mon, Jun 20 2016, 8:32 AM
Bond markets begin week significantly weaker as global markets back down on 'Brexit' trades
10yr yields created a big gap from last week's levels
...
Mon, Jun 20 2016, 4:31 PM
Bond selling pressure followed-through from last week
Updated Brexit polls provided a tangible justification
Intangible math provided momentum (...
Fri, Jun 17 2016, 9:00 AM
Is it time to freak out?
No, not yet
Bond yields are at long term lows and that's both exciting and scary. It's exciting for obvious reasons...
Fri, Jun 17 2016, 4:23 PM
Today's pull-back really began yesterday, and involved stocks moving higher with bond yields
Momentum continued through the overnight session for...
Thu, Jun 16 2016, 8:33 AM
Yesterday's FOMC Announcement was largely a diversion, but only because there happen to be more important things going on in the bigger picture. The ...
Thu, Jun 16 2016, 4:44 PM
Bonds rode overnight momentum to best levels in 3+ years
Stock selling is definitely part of the equation
Brexit drama now involves murder, whic...
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