Fri, Mar 31 2017, 4:56 PM
Month/Quarter-end bond buying was nowhere to be seen until today. It can provide a mild but determined positive trend in bond markets that transcends...
Thu, Mar 30 2017, 9:32 AM
With 10yr yields having made it close to 2017's lower range in the most recent rally, the burden of proof is on bond bulls to come up with j ustificat...
Thu, Mar 30 2017, 6:02 PM
For all of the apparent drama and volatility experienced during the past 2 weeks, it's easy to overlook just how narrow the range has been. There's ...
Wed, Mar 29 2017, 8:46 AM
We characterized yesterday's bond market weakness as a simple and somewhat logical correction. The initial move was Monday morning's rally that was...
Wed, Mar 29 2017, 5:59 PM
There have been two back-to-back "unwind" trades in bond markets. The stage was set by Monday morning's rally which was in response to an absence o...
Tue, Mar 28 2017, 8:47 AM
Today brings the week's first major economic data with 10am Consumer Confidence serving as the headliner. Before that, we'll get an update on home ...
Tue, Mar 28 2017, 7:51 PM
Just when you thought you'd seen the last of the healthcare bill drama , it comes roaring back. Well, at least it felt like a roar. In retrospect, ...
Mon, Mar 27 2017, 10:08 AM
The biggest questions for Monday comes from financial markets and is directed towards politicians in Washington. Are we done obsessing over the healt...
Mon, Mar 27 2017, 7:07 PM
Today could have gone two ways. We could have come to find out that Friday's "delay" in the vote on the healthcare bill was an actual delay, or we ...
Fri, Mar 24 2017, 9:47 AM
The healthcare bill is all anyone can talk about (here's one recent article from Reuters). We rarely see such an abrupt coalescence of market focus...
Fri, Mar 24 2017, 4:37 PM
More than a few bond bulls out there (those are folks who want rates to go lower!) were eager for the vote to take place on the healthcare bill that...
Thu, Mar 23 2017, 7:46 AM
In the post-apocalyptic hell (relative) that is the post-election bond market trading environment, there was a noble group of traders who attempted to...
Thu, Mar 23 2017, 6:17 PM
Rarely has something so "off the radar" become such a focal point for financial markets as this week's vote on a healthcare revamp to replace the Aff...
Wed, Mar 22 2017, 9:23 AM
Things are getting exciting for markets, and not simply because bond yields have returned to the core of their prevailing range for 2017 just after al...
Wed, Mar 22 2017, 5:30 PM
Bond markets began the day in slightly stronger territory and quickly embarked on the same sort of rally that characterized yesterday morning. Today'...
Tue, Mar 21 2017, 9:13 AM
Bond markets continue making a case for re-entry into the core of the range that has been intact since December 2016. The December Fed meeting helped...
Tue, Mar 21 2017, 5:21 PM
If there was one catalyst for the overall surge toward higher stocks and rates at the end of 2016, it was the expectation that the new administration'...
Mon, Mar 20 2017, 9:15 AM
This week will be fairly light in terms of scheduled economic data . The first relatively significant report won't be out until Wednesday (Existing ...
Mon, Mar 20 2017, 7:14 PM
Much like Friday, today was uneventful and moderately positive for bond markets. At some point, we have to consider the combined effects of these sor...
Fri, Mar 17 2017, 8:53 AM
Happy St. Patrick's Day.
Now that you're thinking about a country in Europe, let's talk about European bonds for a moment. US and European bonds...
Fri, Mar 17 2017, 5:28 PM
If wearing some green is all it takes, bonds would have escaped today pinch-free. Treasuries and MBS began the day with just a token amount of green ...
Thu, Mar 16 2017, 8:29 AM
After the overnight session led bonds to open in modestly weaker territory, we're left with the sense that further gains aren't necessarily a given. ...
Thu, Mar 16 2017, 5:47 PM
The big takeaway from yesterday's Fed reaction was that the rally was finite--not motivated by a new development, but rather by a correction to an o...
Wed, Mar 15 2017, 8:27 AM
If you've caught essentially any post in the last few weeks, there's nothing left to say about today. If, however, this is your first time reading ...
Wed, Mar 15 2017, 6:42 PM
Yesterday's recap said that bonds were dreaming about the Fed's dot plot (the economic projections released with today's Fed announcement). In spite ...
Wed, Mar 15 2017, 2:05 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December February indicates ...
Tue, Mar 14 2017, 8:32 AM
The entire week is clearly focused on Wednesday afternoon's Fed events (chiefly, the Fed' economic projections, which will give us an idea of how th...
Tue, Mar 14 2017, 5:51 PM
We know the Fed will hike tomorrow and we know the "dots" (a reference to the dot-plot the Fed uses to convey it's rate hike expectations) will be the...
Mon, Mar 13 2017, 9:17 AM
In 2011-2012, the notion that the Fed would " never " be able to extricate itself from an endless cycle of quantitative easing was not entirely uncomm...
Mon, Mar 13 2017, 5:37 PM
Bonds got back to their weaker ways after a very brief, shallow correction last Friday. We had increasingly expected that "green day," and were und...
Fri, Mar 10 2017, 8:15 AM
Bonds are right on the edge of the relative abyss. If 10yr yields break much higher today, we'll be operating in territory not seen since early 2014....
Fri, Mar 10 2017, 4:43 PM
ADP provided a cruel gift on Wednesday. It isn't the most trusted advance indicator of the infinitely more important NFP data, but when it beats th...
Thu, Mar 9 2017, 8:33 AM
After confirming a breakout from the "consolidation range" (the converging lines tracing the lower highs and higher lows over the past 3 months) yes...
Thu, Mar 9 2017, 6:34 PM
The title sums it up. Bonds are having a bad time . Fed rate hike expectations started this unpleasant party last week and economic data added to t...
Wed, Mar 8 2017, 8:18 AM
Not that we didn't already know this, but bond markets have been on the back foot ever since last week's rapid shift in Fed rate hike expectations. T...
Wed, Mar 8 2017, 5:42 PM
Over the past 3 days (the white circled area in the chart below), rates have broken out of their post-election consolidation range (the outermost ye...
Tue, Mar 7 2017, 9:06 AM
We've been tracking several iterations of a sideways or consolidative range since the initial post-election sell-off bounced back in mid January. We...
Tue, Mar 7 2017, 5:29 PM
It's not incredibly common for bonds to improve in the week leading up to an almost certain Fed hike. That said, we only have 2 recent examples in th...
Mon, Mar 6 2017, 8:58 AM
Last week saw economic data take a definitive back seat to Fed speeches --particularly Tuesday's comments from NY Fed President Dudley. It wasn't th...
Mon, Mar 6 2017, 5:47 PM
Monday's without significant economic data or overseas geopolitical developments tend to be quite lifeless for bond markets. Today was no exception...
Fri, Mar 3 2017, 8:43 AM
As you're likely aware, rates have been in a very well-behaved consolidation range since mid-November. The trendlines connecting the "lower highs" an...
Fri, Mar 3 2017, 4:34 PM
Economic data was stronger this morning with the best ISM Manufacturing "business activity" reading since 2011. Along with comments from Fed's Powell...
Thu, Mar 2 2017, 8:55 AM
In addition to ISM Non-Manufacturing, tomorrow brings multiple Fed speeches, including Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer in the early afternoon. It's exc...
Thu, Mar 2 2017, 5:25 PM
You couldn't swing a dead cat without hitting a news story about the Snapchat IPO or a friend/colleague asking if you were going to buy some. While i...
Wed, Mar 1 2017, 8:21 AM
There was a lot of build-up for last night's Trump speech. I won't tell you that it didn't turn out to be a market mover, but it wasn't nearly as p...
Wed, Mar 1 2017, 4:39 PM
The past 2 days have been almost exclusively about a rapid adjustment in Fed rate hike expectations (see the chart in the Day Ahead for a visual). ...
Tue, Feb 28 2017, 8:30 AM
Today is the last day of February. 'Month-end' is different than other days for bond markets because it serves as a deadline for money managers to ...
Tue, Feb 28 2017, 6:38 PM
Treasuries and MBS made it almost all the way through the day with very little drama. There were some ups and downs, but by 4pm, trading levels wer...
Mon, Feb 27 2017, 8:31 AM
The past 5 business days of bond market rallies brought yields right to the lower edge of 2017's range . We had been tracking these movements in ter...
Mon, Feb 27 2017, 5:34 PM
Several events helped get investors back in a riskier mood to begin the new week. Overnight reports of the "status quo" candidate polling better in...
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