Tue, Oct 17 2017, 9:18 AM
As we discussed last week, the positive technical signals don't get much clearer than they did after Friday's CPI data (weak inflation helped bonds br...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 5:01 PM
If the only things you could observe about today's bond trading were volumes and "buy vs sell," there were a few moments where things got fairly inte...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 9:27 AM
It looks like it will be touch and go for bonds as the week begins. If yields or technicals touch certain overhead ceilings, you should go lock...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 4:30 PM
There was a time--in fact, there was a stretch of several years--when inflation-related reports just didn't matter . I would have been the first to ...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 8:18 AM
My apologies to baseball fans, both of you. The "judge" in today's case is this morning's CPI (Consumer Price Index) data. Bonds have been deliberat...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 8:04 PM
Bond markets are matching their best 3-day performance in over a month with today's stronger closing levels. Unlike the previous examples, the curr...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 9:04 AM
CPI, CPI, CPI...
The "Consumer Price Index" is the one thing on this week's economic calendar that stood out as a top tier potential market mover. ...
Wed, Oct 11 2017, 5:34 PM
"Well? Get on with it!"
That about sums up what the average bond market watcher was thinking at the end of September--and possibly again after t...
Wed, Oct 11 2017, 8:50 AM
On both MBS Live and Mortgage News Daily, there's a video in the news stream titled "Key things to watch in the Fed minutes." The commentator rather ...
Tue, Oct 10 2017, 4:49 PM
Bonds struggled to find a theme in their first trading day back from a 3-day weekend. Much of the international focus was on Catalonia's quest for in...
Tue, Oct 10 2017, 9:00 AM
After having waited a day to begin trading this week due to yesterday's Columbus Day holiday, bond markets will spend today waiting for the week's mor...
Fri, Oct 6 2017, 6:22 PM
The Employment Situation (aka the jobs report, or simply, "NFP") is the granddaddy of all economic reports. Through the years, no other piece of da...
Fri, Oct 6 2017, 8:22 AM
NFP, or "nonfarm payrolls" (the principle component of the big jobs report officially known as the "Employment Situation") are a bond market instituti...
Thu, Oct 5 2017, 4:58 PM
Generally higher yields and tepid intraday performances are nothing new for bond markets over the past week and a half. In some ways, today marked a ...
Thu, Oct 5 2017, 8:49 AM
Yet again, bond markets have managed to string together 4 days doing something other than selling off abjectly. Without a firmer push toward lower ...
Wed, Oct 4 2017, 5:19 PM
Bond markets saw a decent amount of strength in the afternoon. It ultimately allowed 10yr yields and MBS to return to positive territory by the end o...
Wed, Oct 4 2017, 9:11 AM
In 2011-2016, Europe was the dark horse market mover that ended up winning the race. Far too few domestic market participants appreciated the impact ...
Tue, Oct 3 2017, 4:36 PM
Both yesterday and today have been the sort of days that just haven't mattered in the slightest for bond markets. Yesterday was spent consolidating ...
Tue, Oct 3 2017, 9:05 AM
Bond markets are in the throes of their worst uptrend in yields since the November presidential election. Granted, trading levels are still roughly...
Mon, Oct 2 2017, 5:30 PM
You never know... Sometimes the end of any given month will be skewed in one direction in terms of trading momentum only for the following month to s...
Mon, Oct 2 2017, 9:11 AM
The current trend in bond markets is not your friend. While it may sound trite, there's a reason we say "the trend is not your friend until it's your...
Fri, Sep 29 2017, 3:49 PM
The music is currently playing for the role of Fed Chair next year. When the music stops, Yellen may or may not still have a seat. News came out t...
Fri, Sep 29 2017, 8:31 AM
This morning brings one of the more important inflation metrics for the US economy via the "Incomes and Outlays" report. As the name suggests, the re...
Thu, Sep 28 2017, 4:39 PM
Treasuries hit their highest yields since the beginning of July today, although they'd already begun to calm down by the start of the domestic sessi...
Thu, Sep 28 2017, 8:32 AM
First off, let me say that the extent to which bond market weakness over the past 2 days is being wholly attributed to the tax plan borders on ridicul...
Wed, Sep 27 2017, 5:40 PM
While MBS definitely did sell-off today, and while mortgage rates did indeed move higher, it was Treasuries that took the brunt of the damage. Specif...
Wed, Sep 27 2017, 9:24 AM
Before it even began, today was set to be a challenge for bond markets. As discussed in an earlier update on MBS Live , Treasury yields rose sharpl...
Tue, Sep 26 2017, 4:33 PM
Today was another good day for bond markets despite the fact that Treasury yields moved somewhat higher during the course of trading hours. At leas...
Tue, Sep 26 2017, 9:05 AM
For some of you, this may seem very basic. For others, hopefully it will serve as an eye-opener or even just a useful refresher. I got the inspirati...
Mon, Sep 25 2017, 5:16 PM
It's tempting to say that bond markets are definitively pushing back against the sharp correction that brought rates higher over the past 2 weeks. In...
Mon, Sep 25 2017, 9:03 AM
The current week begins with bonds holding ground for a 3rd day after a fairly sharp selling spree in the preceding 2 weeks. The big question is whet...
Fri, Sep 22 2017, 4:52 PM
Who knows how today's trading would have unfolded absent the overnight headlines that North Korea was planning to test an ICBM with a Hydrogen warhead...
Fri, Sep 22 2017, 8:59 AM
With a dearth of economic data on the calendar, bond traders were set to take cues from other traders, technical levels, and perhaps a big-ticket head...
Thu, Sep 21 2017, 4:40 PM
In a sick way, it would have been easier to see additional weakness in bond markets today. At least that would have jived with past precedent of "c...
Thu, Sep 21 2017, 9:43 AM
Remember when the Grinch's heart grew 3 sizes? No, I mean, do you really remember watching that movie for the first time and the feeling you had wh...
Wed, Sep 20 2017, 5:28 PM
Today's Fed announcement wasn't appreciably different than most economists, traders, and armchair analysts expected. They confirmed the inception o...
Wed, Sep 20 2017, 2:04 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June July indicates that the...
Wed, Sep 20 2017, 8:33 AM
Much like an actor can get lost in a role and take things a bit too far, bond markets played the part of "a market undergoing a correction" a little ...
Tue, Sep 19 2017, 5:33 PM
While MBS managed to remain 1 tick in positive territory today, Treasury yields were higher on the day and the overall mood in bond markets managed ...
Tue, Sep 19 2017, 8:54 AM
Ahoy ye salty dogs sailing the high seas of the mortgage world. Another year has come and gone without any grand preparations for Talk Like a Pirate ...
Mon, Sep 18 2017, 4:49 PM
Bonds got off to a weaker start on this Fed week, and there weren't any convenient scapegoats in sight. That said, there were a few caveats. Most ...
Mon, Sep 18 2017, 9:04 AM
Wednesday's Fed Announcement is one of the best-telegraphed in Fed history. Multiple speakers--including Yellen herself--have all but promised that t...
Fri, Sep 15 2017, 5:09 PM
Between the overnight session and domestic trading hours, the following voices tried to get inside the head of bond markets:
A North Korean miss...
Fri, Sep 15 2017, 9:13 AM
Granted, the headline of today's commentary will be lost on those who aren't reasonably well-versed in Monty Python, but it was worth the risk to ente...
Thu, Sep 14 2017, 5:10 PM
We've been steadfast in characterizing this week's sell-off as a "correction" to the strong rally that preceded it. One might have argued that the ri...
Thu, Sep 14 2017, 8:28 AM
Yesterday morning's chart is just as germane for today, perhaps more so. It shows how bonds have reacted to CPI data over the past few months. Altho...
Wed, Sep 13 2017, 4:15 PM
Treasury yields hit their highest levels in exactly 3 weeks today with little apparent motivation. Indeed, volumes remained lower than recent average...
Wed, Sep 13 2017, 8:53 AM
Today's only relevant economic data is the Producer Price Index (PPI)--an inflation metric at the wholesale level. Although inflation is back in the...
Tue, Sep 12 2017, 4:42 PM
Today could be viewed at least 2 ways if you're a fan of low rates. On one hand, you might despair to see that rates are continuing higher after bo...
Tue, Sep 12 2017, 8:53 AM
Yesterday was the warning shot and today could see confirmation that bonds are indeed bouncing. Actually, it's probably more appropriate to view ...
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