Fri, Jan 20 2017, 5:28 PM
To be fair to today's presidential inauguration, it was never destined to be an exceptionally big market mover. Traders nonetheless had to prepare to...
Thu, Jan 19 2017, 8:34 AM
When it comes to defining the recent range, there are several candidates for the upper and lower boundaries. When 10yr yields were under 2.40%, that ...
Thu, Jan 19 2017, 5:22 PM
Pain continued for bond markets today as 10yr yields broke above the upper range boundaries that had been intact since the beginning of the year. Ad...
Wed, Jan 18 2017, 8:29 AM
Although yields were able to close at the lowest levels in more than a month yesterday, bonds continued to trade in the same intraday range (roughly...
Wed, Jan 18 2017, 5:20 PM
After flirting with a break of the lower end of 2017's sideways range yesterday, bond traders clearly decided " now's not the time. " There's preciou...
Tue, Jan 17 2017, 8:46 AM
January continues playing host to the same level of stock/bond correlation that we typically see at the end and beginning of any given year. Beyond c...
Tue, Jan 17 2017, 5:48 PM
In some regards, bonds had their best day of the year today. The outright gains weren't quite as big as Jan 5th or 9th, but closing yields were the...
Fri, Jan 13 2017, 8:26 AM
Bond markets are beginning the day slightly stronger ahead of the week's only significant economic data. The 8:30am time slot brings Retail Sales (...
Fri, Jan 13 2017, 4:54 PM
Granted, we might wake up next Tuesday (markets are closed Monday) to find that bonds are quickly breaking out of the recent range. But as for this...
Thu, Jan 12 2017, 8:28 AM
As the new year continues, a common new year's theme is in full effect: the stock/bond correlation. Stocks and bonds frequently move together over ...
Thu, Jan 12 2017, 6:27 PM
In glancing at various trader/analyst/strategist emails, I see perhaps a greater diversity of opinions about today than of any other recent trading da...
Wed, Jan 11 2017, 8:45 AM
To a significantly greater degree than yesterday's 3yr Treasury auction, today's 10yr auction will have the power to confirm a trend we were beginni...
Wed, Jan 11 2017, 5:09 PM
Today was one of the more complex trading days we've had recently. Three things were certainly in play and 2 of them were interdependent.
1. Stock...
Tue, Jan 10 2017, 8:47 AM
One day down and 2 more to go without meaningful economic data. That didn't stop bonds from having a good day yesterday, but the gains were largely d...
Tue, Jan 10 2017, 5:27 PM
Today was about as tame as they come for bond markets, post-election. 10yr yields traded a high of 2.394 and a low of 2.361. That's a very narrow d...
Mon, Jan 9 2017, 8:38 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Mon, Jan 9 2017, 6:29 PM
It was almost a wholly uneventful day for bond markets. If not for the fact that trading levels improved day-over-day, there wouldn't be much to talk...
Fri, Jan 6 2017, 8:18 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Fri, Jan 6 2017, 5:14 PM
NFP is the biggest piece of economic data on any given month--so big, in fact, that financial markets treat it as a focal point for trading activity ...
Thu, Jan 5 2017, 8:35 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Thu, Jan 5 2017, 5:08 PM
By quite a wide margin, today was the best day for bond markets since the election. 10yr yields dropped nearly 10bps, making it all the way to the ...
Wed, Jan 4 2017, 8:52 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Wed, Jan 4 2017, 5:03 PM
Bonds focused on technicals, range-trading, corporate supply, and the FOMC Minutes today. It all added up to almost no net change across the board, s...
Tue, Jan 3 2017, 8:42 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Tue, Jan 3 2017, 5:37 PM
Bonds began the new year on the defensive thanks to a deluge of corporate bond issuance as well as stronger ISM Manufacturing data. By 10:15am, 10y...
Fri, Dec 30 2016, 8:57 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Thu, Dec 29 2016, 8:30 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Thu, Dec 29 2016, 4:33 PM
Bonds made solid gains again today, both before and after another strong Treasury auction. Fannie 3.5s picked up more than a quarter of a point and 1...
Wed, Dec 28 2016, 8:40 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Wed, Dec 28 2016, 5:11 PM
Today was all about the afternoon's 5yr Treasury note auction, which garnered the best demand in more than 2 years and the highest percentage of indir...
Tue, Dec 27 2016, 8:43 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Tue, Dec 27 2016, 3:39 PM
As far as full business days go (those that aren't "early close"), today was by far and away the slowest day of the year for bond markets. In fact,...
Fri, Dec 23 2016, 8:48 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Fri, Dec 23 2016, 1:40 PM
As expected, bonds did nothing today , apart from a possibly detectable response to the inflation-expectation components of the Consumer Sentiment da...
Thu, Dec 22 2016, 8:24 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Thu, Dec 22 2016, 3:45 PM
This is coming out a bit earlier than normal, and I promise to revise and/or put out another recap if by some miraculous turn of events, bond markets ...
Wed, Dec 21 2016, 8:57 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Wed, Dec 21 2016, 6:17 PM
I'll make this quick, on the chance you were enticed to read more after seeing the headline. Bond markets nearly broke 2016's record for the lowest ...
Tue, Dec 20 2016, 8:37 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Tue, Dec 20 2016, 5:28 PM
The holiday theme continued today, with bonds trading inside the range that's been intact since last week's Fed festivities.
As I'll likely ment...
Mon, Dec 19 2016, 8:32 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Mon, Dec 19 2016, 6:33 PM
There will definitely be a theme in the recap commentary for the rest of the year: holidays! It's hard to quantify exactly what the holiday season do...
Fri, Dec 16 2016, 8:18 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Fri, Dec 16 2016, 5:27 PM
"Holiday trading mode" doesn't guarantee uneventful, sideways bond market momentum, but it does up the chances. Actually, it's probably fairer to say...
Thu, Dec 15 2016, 11:02 AM
Sorry for the delay on the morning commentary. As you can see, I had a lot on my mind. I also decided to go a different direction after reading the ...
Thu, Dec 15 2016, 6:56 PM
If you read anything I write today, make it The Day Ahead: The Death of a Long Term Trend; A Definitive Assessment.
If you want to read more, here'...
Wed, Dec 14 2016, 8:36 AM
First thing's first: the Fed will almost certainly hike today. I suppose we can't ever be truly certain of a particular outcome of a Fed meeting, b...
Wed, Dec 14 2016, 7:14 PM
It's either the best thing or the worst thing in the world, depending on what kind of originator you are. On one hand , the outlook for the economy ...
Wed, Dec 14 2016, 2:06 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Sept...
Tue, Dec 13 2016, 9:03 AM
Bond yields have been trending steadily higher even after the initial rout that followed the election. Based on several technical measurements, upwar...
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