Fri, Sep 16 2016, 9:26 AM
With the most recent spike in rates, 10yr yields have returned to 2016's dominant trend-lines for an interesting bounce (or "stall," depending on ho...
Fri, Sep 16 2016, 5:08 PM
I'll save a majority of risk-mongering for next week's opener, but some of it is warranted for today. The timing of calendar events has resulted in ...
Thu, Sep 15 2016, 8:29 AM
After several days with essentially no relevant economic data, bond markets will get an entire week's worth this morning. The headliner is undoubtedl...
Thu, Sep 15 2016, 4:24 PM
Bond markets had an opportunity to jump back on the selling wagon today after yesterday's positive bounce. As we discussed, yesterday's gains were dr...
Wed, Sep 14 2016, 9:37 AM
Welcome back to the first potentially significant long-term bounce in interest rates since the first half of 2015. Rates haven't covered as much grou...
Wed, Sep 14 2016, 5:22 PM
Bond markets made modest gains today, but yields nonetheless closed at their highest recent levels apart from the previous day. It was the same dyn...
Tue, Sep 13 2016, 9:25 AM
The past three days have been interesting for financial markets--Friday and Monday particularly. Friday saw the biggest break outside the established...
Tue, Sep 13 2016, 4:37 PM
If you're just getting caught up with today's bond market movements, they weren't pretty . On the scale where the worst days of mid-2013 were "10/10...
Mon, Sep 12 2016, 8:56 AM
Last week ended with heavy selling in both stocks and bonds. It was exceptionally bad for stocks (a fact that should have been a clue to all the repo...
Mon, Sep 12 2016, 4:24 PM
Heading into today, there was a lot of hype about a speech from a member of the Federal Reserve, Lael Brainard. She's not an outspoken Fed governor,...
Fri, Sep 9 2016, 9:09 AM
Bond markets have recently set records when it comes to being flat and directionless. Technical studies that measure the presence and strength of a...
Fri, Sep 9 2016, 5:39 PM
Here's why financial news sucks so bad... Sorry, I said "sucks." I realize that might offend three of you, but I'm willing to alienate that half of ...
Thu, Sep 8 2016, 8:40 AM
Mario Draghi is the President of the European Central Bank (ECB). He's Europe's version of Janet Yellen, for lack of a more eloquent description. Th...
Thu, Sep 8 2016, 4:40 PM
Let's be real. Asset purchases by major central banks are effectively an allow a nce for financial markets--free money that they know will be coming ...
Wed, Sep 7 2016, 8:49 AM
What a difference a day makes. With the recent trading range being so narrow, it didn't take much for the overall tone in bond markets to move from...
Wed, Sep 7 2016, 3:34 PM
Treasuries and MBS held steady today, consolidating yesterday's gains and playing it safe ahead of tomorrow's ECB Announcement.
There really isn't ...
Tue, Sep 6 2016, 9:24 AM
Normally, weaker readings on nonfarm payrolls result in bond market gains. While that was initially true on Friday, in less than 30 minutes, bonds we...
Tue, Sep 6 2016, 4:35 PM
When it comes to economic data that moves bond markets, there are only a few reports that compete for the 1st-runner-up spot behind Nonfarm Payrolls...
Fri, Sep 2 2016, 8:30 AM
It goes against the grain of conventional summertime market wisdom, to some extent, to have so much focus on any piece of economic data as "making or ...
Fri, Sep 2 2016, 4:56 PM
Happy Labor Day weekend, everyone. Gotta close out some longs, but may jump back in on Tuesday.
Cheers, Bond Buyers
That's the short ve...
Thu, Sep 1 2016, 8:53 AM
NFP weeks are always a bit more robust in terms of other top shelf economic data. This typically includes one or both of the ISM reports, Chicago PMI...
Thu, Sep 1 2016, 4:16 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory and were approaching the highest yields of the past 2 months by mid-morning. Part of the negativity could hav...
Wed, Aug 31 2016, 9:35 AM
Who remembers asymptotes from high school? Those are the curved lines that gradually approach a certain level--getting closer and closer, but never r...
Wed, Aug 31 2016, 5:43 PM
Bonds responded generally favorably to the available economic data, which included on-target ADP jobs numbers (177 vs 175k forecast) and weaker Chicag...
Tue, Aug 30 2016, 9:12 AM
With bond markets having clearly consolidated heading into last week's Jackson Hole speeches and with Jackson hole ultimately NOT resulting in a a c...
Tue, Aug 30 2016, 4:24 PM
Today was very different than the past two days. Friday was one of the biggest days of selling seen during the July/August time frame and yesterday...
Mon, Aug 29 2016, 9:33 AM
Friday was a volatile day for markets as investors were anxiously awaiting comments from Fed Chair Yellen that might speak to the likelihood of a Fed ...
Mon, Aug 29 2016, 4:54 PM
It's one thing to HOPE that any particular selling spree in bond markets is merely the product of a few temporary events that can be easily explained ...
Fri, Aug 26 2016, 4:31 AM
All too many lookers on--myself included--have made far too much of today's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Yellen (11am ET, we're led to believe)....
Fri, Aug 26 2016, 3:01 PM
All eyes were on Yellen's 10am speech from Jackson Hole, then all eyes were closed as traders fell asleep from boredom. Yellen said nothing we didn...
Thu, Aug 25 2016, 8:34 AM
Most likely, today will just be another day in the range-bound grind for bond markets leading up to tomorrow's Jackson Hole speech from Yellen. Altho...
Thu, Aug 25 2016, 4:14 PM
As we discussed this morning, sometimes markets will take a "lead-off" ahead of a big potential market mover if there's an underlying predisposition t...
Wed, Aug 24 2016, 9:27 AM
Welcome to another episode of Extreme Boredom: Bond Market Edition.
In today's episode, bonds are pressing even further into record territory, only...
Wed, Aug 24 2016, 5:06 PM
Whether or not Yellen actually says something that moves markets on Friday is unimportant. Maybe she will. Probably she won't. Either way , we jus...
Tue, Aug 23 2016, 9:32 AM
To say that bonds have been range-bound recently would be an understatement. I'm running out of ways to say it, and perhaps you're running out of the...
Tue, Aug 23 2016, 4:02 PM
We might have expected a bigger movement in the wake of the colossal improvement in New Home Sales (654k vs 582k previously, 580k forecast), but bon...
Mon, Aug 22 2016, 9:19 AM
By the end of this week--and quite possibly for the next several weeks--you'll be tired of hearing about Jackson Hole . I know I'm already tired of ...
Mon, Aug 22 2016, 6:00 PM
I apologize for tricking you with the title. The "shocking" part was unabashed sarcasm . It's not that anyone here is clairvoyant. Certainly, we n...
Fri, Aug 19 2016, 9:03 AM
Yesterday's recap signed off with the following thought: "no data on tap for tomorrow [in reference to today], the trading range should be as good a g...
Fri, Aug 19 2016, 4:10 PM
As the attached video suggests, "red happens." It really does! After all, if you were the puppet-master behind rate movement, and if you'd decided...
Thu, Aug 18 2016, 9:20 AM
Picture it: a smoky lounge, the vaguely distinctive clinking of ice cubes in cocktail glasses, a mellow jazz band, and a tantalizing performance of "...
Thu, Aug 18 2016, 5:37 PM
Today was one of the many summer trading sessions that you wouldn't miss if it never happened . Bond markets ended up making modest gains after the ...
Wed, Aug 17 2016, 9:37 AM
With no significant data set for this morning, markets' attention will be fully turned to this afternoon's FOMC Minutes release. The Minutes provid...
Wed, Aug 17 2016, 3:47 PM
Surprise surprise! The range is still the range for bond markets and mortgage rates. Yesterday's tough talk from Fed Presidents Dudley and Lockhar...
Tue, Aug 16 2016, 8:30 AM
We've recently seen a refreshing reconnection between bond markets and economic data. I say "refreshing" because the classic connection between str...
Tue, Aug 16 2016, 3:48 PM
There's something that's just too fun about entertaining conspiracy theories --especially when it comes to the Fed's rhetorical platform. Take for i...
Mon, Aug 15 2016, 9:27 AM
If you're on the very youngest fringe of the mortgage market participant age range, you might know what a "meme" is. And if you're up to speed on anc...
Mon, Aug 15 2016, 3:50 PM
Sure, we've 'endured' the rigors of a day-to-day ups and downs in bond markets over the past month, but if we step back from the charts by more than a...
Fri, Aug 12 2016, 9:08 AM
By Wednesday of this week, we were assessing the possibility of a positive break of the range in bonds. Yesterday, those hopes were dashed by a fai...
Fri, Aug 12 2016, 4:23 PM
Today was another nice, simple day for bond markets. Yields entered the domestic session slightly lower, thanks to weak data overseas. Even then, ...
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