Tue, Dec 13 2016, 4:53 PM
There are two ways to approach today's bond market movements, and they're quintessential examples of the "glass half empty/full" expression.
Gla...
Mon, Dec 12 2016, 9:04 AM
Fed policy is one of the biggest, most consistent market movers for bonds. With such a high likelihood of a hike, bond markets surely must be focu...
Mon, Dec 12 2016, 4:58 PM
We were hoping to see some traction for bond markets after today's Treasury auctions, and we got it! Unfortunately, the overnight session pushed yiel...
Fri, Dec 9 2016, 8:45 AM
Bonds weren't entirely clear in telling us if yesterday's ECB tapering announcement was a " good thing that simply needed to be digested," or if it...
Fri, Dec 9 2016, 4:29 PM
You're familiar with the sippy bird (or " drinking bird ")? For years, these little birds have been offering traders the ability to get out of the of...
Thu, Dec 8 2016, 8:26 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) changed things up today, to some extent. Unlike the Fed, which always unveils its big policy changes in the "announ...
Thu, Dec 8 2016, 6:22 PM
Yesterday we discussed the rally in bonds as a function of short-covering . That meant traders were in a defensive position on Tuesday night--bettin...
Wed, Dec 7 2016, 8:54 AM
From time to time, we see various financial markets take a "lead-off." Just like in baseball, the lead-offs occur because the base-runner knows whe...
Wed, Dec 7 2016, 5:41 PM
"Big" is a relative term these days, to be sure. In fact, 4.8bps in 10yr yields and 10/32nds in Fannie 3.5 MBS prices isn't too terribly big, but...
Tue, Dec 6 2016, 8:47 AM
I generally don't l ike the terms "oversold" (consistent weakness) and "overbought" (consistent strength). I think they lead to false confidence...
Tue, Dec 6 2016, 5:37 PM
Today's bond market trading range was the narrowest since the US presidential election, by far. 10yr yields held inside a paltry 2.9bp range (2.374 t...
Mon, Dec 5 2016, 8:52 AM
This week, we'll finally get to see how much of an impact remains to be had for the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The ECB conducts their ...
Mon, Dec 5 2016, 5:29 PM
After today, we're left with a clearer picture of the prevailing short-term range in bond markets. The volatile reaction to the weekend's Italian ref...
Fri, Dec 2 2016, 8:12 AM
Have you heard the one about the falling knife? And how no one wants to catch it? That's one of the market's favorite analogies for the fear experie...
Fri, Dec 2 2016, 5:17 PM
Let's change up the old fairy tale. Bond markets have been cried wolf on a few recent occasions. In my version of the fairy tale, "crying wolf" is e...
Thu, Dec 1 2016, 8:32 AM
Bond markets begin the day still reeling from yesterday's OPEC-driven rout. We noted in yesterday's closing commentary that yields bounced on an omin...
Thu, Dec 1 2016, 5:44 PM
Bonds began the day in the throes of yesterday's ongoing momentum. There was a bit of a pause during Asian market hours, but European trading quickly...
Wed, Nov 30 2016, 9:48 AM
Yesterday we discussed the positive impact of month-end bond buying. The only problem with month-end buying that occurs on the day before month-e...
Wed, Nov 30 2016, 5:18 PM
Today brought the long-awaited and hotly-anticipated conclusion of a deal among OPEC countries to limit oil production. Constricted supply has one in...
Tue, Nov 29 2016, 9:49 AM
The term ' pivot point ' can mean slightly different things depending on your frame of reference and market-watching goals. For our purposes, the lit...
Tue, Nov 29 2016, 5:33 PM
How many ways could bond market weakness have been justified today? Shall I count the ways?
GDP +3.2 vs +3.0 forecast and +2.9 previously
...
Mon, Nov 28 2016, 4:51 PM
Remember when 10yr yields spiked from roughly 2.31% to roughly 2.41% in the blink of an eye last Wednesday? That was the day before Thanksgiving, w...
Mon, Nov 28 2016, 3:54 PM
Bond markets were stronger right out of the gate in the overnight session with 10yr yields opening at 2.337 and gaining another bp since then. The re...
Fri, Nov 25 2016, 10:22 AM
Few days of the year can be more frustrating to bond market stakeholders who find themselves compelled (either by themselves or their superiors) to ...
Fri, Nov 25 2016, 4:44 PM
As was the goal of most anyone involved in trading bonds, today was completely inconsequential. Recapping the action is a mere formality (indeed, for...
Wed, Nov 23 2016, 9:18 AM
Bond markets begin the day on the run (the bad kind of run), and if Thanksgivings past are any indication, things could get worse before they get bett...
Wed, Nov 23 2016, 5:37 PM
The sense of illiquidity was palpable today. This began in the overnight session when comments from the European Central Bank sent European bond yiel...
Tue, Nov 22 2016, 9:48 AM
Bond markets have quickly "repriced" their expectations for future inflation and growth based on the potential policy path of the Trump administration...
Tue, Nov 22 2016, 6:36 PM
Remember overseas bond markets? It would be easy to forget about the typical influence from Asian and European bond markets on US bond markets over t...
Mon, Nov 21 2016, 10:08 AM
You've probably met people with the inspiring (or nauseating) ability to maintain a positive (or idealistic) attitude in the face of adversity. Perha...
Mon, Nov 21 2016, 6:47 PM
For the third time in the post-election sell-off, bond markets managed modest gains day-over-day. Much like the last 2 times (last Tue and Wed), clos...
Fri, Nov 18 2016, 9:02 AM
Treasuries technically hit overnight highs late in yesterday's session, but it was the overnight hours that saw the more substantial weakness. Long-t...
Fri, Nov 18 2016, 5:41 PM
If you were wondering why I was hesitant to get on board with the modest improvements and sideways ground-holding of the past few days, today brings t...
Thu, Nov 17 2016, 10:02 AM
This morning's commentary will be a bit heavy in terms of the focus on technical analysis, but as always, this isn't exactly old school, textbook tech...
Thu, Nov 17 2016, 5:46 PM
Google up the 5-timer club if you're not familiar. We have a new inductee today, although it's not exactly the same club as seen on Saturday Night ...
Wed, Nov 16 2016, 10:09 AM
We started to talk about "the gap" in yesterday's closing commentary and unless bond market momentum manages to stay far weaker than anyone expects,...
Wed, Nov 16 2016, 5:40 PM
Bond markets managed to scrape together a day-over-day improvement by a very small margin. 10yr yields closed 1.6bps lower and Fannie 3.5s gained a p...
Tue, Nov 15 2016, 10:03 AM
Big moves in bond markets always result in big conclusions from all manner of market participants. Whether it's Chief Strategist at some big bank, ...
Tue, Nov 15 2016, 7:22 PM
If you've ever had the misfortune of experiencing a sharp stick in your eye, then you have a great reference point for today's bond market movement. ...
Mon, Nov 14 2016, 9:27 AM
"Taper tantrum" refers to the market's reaction to the revelation that the Fed would begin reducing the pace of its asset purchases in mid-2013. For ...
Mon, Nov 14 2016, 7:53 PM
With Thursday marking a slightly less robust day of selling compared to Wednesday, it was all too tempting to hope that the bond market was just get...
Thu, Nov 10 2016, 10:30 AM
We talk about " momentum " a lot when it comes to bond market movement. I like reducing financial market concepts and reducing them to easy-to-unders...
Thu, Nov 10 2016, 6:19 PM
In the Day Ahead, we discussed the concept of ' momentum ' in bond markets. I likened the current momentum situation to an unexpected running of the ...
Wed, Nov 9 2016, 5:37 PM
These are the sorts of things I think about sometimes when I'm coming up with a title for the recap. If you have enough of a stake in bond market mov...
Wed, Nov 9 2016, 2:30 AM
This will be a brutally simple piece of analysis. If you'd like to see the same conclusions expressed in vastly more words, read almost anything I'...
Tue, Nov 8 2016, 9:22 AM
This week's absence of relevant economic data seems to be by design. Markets may have chosen to focus on the election even if there had been importan...
Tue, Nov 8 2016, 5:14 PM
Market participants are HUNGRY for information on election day! While that comes as no surprise (indeed, traders always want to know what's going o...
Mon, Nov 7 2016, 10:02 AM
In terms of scheduled economic data and events, this week is almost completely barren. In addition, Friday is Veteran's Day , and no matter what any...
Mon, Nov 7 2016, 5:28 PM
Today was perhaps the simplest trading session for bond markets in recent memory. There was one relevant piece of information and one meaningful mo...
Fri, Nov 4 2016, 9:52 AM
Europe.
Above all else, the evolution of the European recovery-- especially as it relates to the various fiscal and monetary policy responses in t...
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