Wed, Aug 24 2016, 9:27 AM
Welcome to another episode of Extreme Boredom: Bond Market Edition.
In today's episode, bonds are pressing even further into record territory, only...
Wed, Aug 24 2016, 5:06 PM
Whether or not Yellen actually says something that moves markets on Friday is unimportant. Maybe she will. Probably she won't. Either way , we jus...
Tue, Aug 23 2016, 9:32 AM
To say that bonds have been range-bound recently would be an understatement. I'm running out of ways to say it, and perhaps you're running out of the...
Tue, Aug 23 2016, 4:02 PM
We might have expected a bigger movement in the wake of the colossal improvement in New Home Sales (654k vs 582k previously, 580k forecast), but bon...
Mon, Aug 22 2016, 9:19 AM
By the end of this week--and quite possibly for the next several weeks--you'll be tired of hearing about Jackson Hole . I know I'm already tired of ...
Mon, Aug 22 2016, 6:00 PM
I apologize for tricking you with the title. The "shocking" part was unabashed sarcasm . It's not that anyone here is clairvoyant. Certainly, we n...
Fri, Aug 19 2016, 9:03 AM
Yesterday's recap signed off with the following thought: "no data on tap for tomorrow [in reference to today], the trading range should be as good a g...
Fri, Aug 19 2016, 4:10 PM
As the attached video suggests, "red happens." It really does! After all, if you were the puppet-master behind rate movement, and if you'd decided...
Thu, Aug 18 2016, 9:20 AM
Picture it: a smoky lounge, the vaguely distinctive clinking of ice cubes in cocktail glasses, a mellow jazz band, and a tantalizing performance of "...
Thu, Aug 18 2016, 5:37 PM
Today was one of the many summer trading sessions that you wouldn't miss if it never happened . Bond markets ended up making modest gains after the ...
Wed, Aug 17 2016, 9:37 AM
With no significant data set for this morning, markets' attention will be fully turned to this afternoon's FOMC Minutes release. The Minutes provid...
Wed, Aug 17 2016, 3:47 PM
Surprise surprise! The range is still the range for bond markets and mortgage rates. Yesterday's tough talk from Fed Presidents Dudley and Lockhar...
Tue, Aug 16 2016, 8:30 AM
We've recently seen a refreshing reconnection between bond markets and economic data. I say "refreshing" because the classic connection between str...
Tue, Aug 16 2016, 3:48 PM
There's something that's just too fun about entertaining conspiracy theories --especially when it comes to the Fed's rhetorical platform. Take for i...
Mon, Aug 15 2016, 9:27 AM
If you're on the very youngest fringe of the mortgage market participant age range, you might know what a "meme" is. And if you're up to speed on anc...
Mon, Aug 15 2016, 3:50 PM
Sure, we've 'endured' the rigors of a day-to-day ups and downs in bond markets over the past month, but if we step back from the charts by more than a...
Fri, Aug 12 2016, 9:08 AM
By Wednesday of this week, we were assessing the possibility of a positive break of the range in bonds. Yesterday, those hopes were dashed by a fai...
Fri, Aug 12 2016, 4:23 PM
Today was another nice, simple day for bond markets. Yields entered the domestic session slightly lower, thanks to weak data overseas. Even then, ...
Thu, Aug 11 2016, 9:41 AM
In July 2012 and July 2016, 10yr yields visit to all time lows was cordoned-off fairly neatly by yields in the 1.50-1.52 neighborhood. We've been t...
Thu, Aug 11 2016, 3:59 PM
Coming into today, bond markets were amped up. UK 10yr yields hit new all-time lows yesterday. German 10yr yields were close to hitting all-time l...
Wed, Aug 10 2016, 9:04 AM
First off, let's cover the huge drop in MBS prices overnight. Fannie 3.0s, for instance, closed at 103-29 and then began today at 103-23--all this de...
Wed, Aug 10 2016, 5:12 PM
Bonds strong overnight with more help from Europe
10yr Auction strong this afternoon with massive foreign support
1.52-1.62 range in 10yr yields...
Tue, Aug 9 2016, 9:11 AM
Today's chart has a piece of technical analysis I haven't posted in quite a while, but it's fairly easy to understand and fairly useful. The tech in ...
Tue, Aug 9 2016, 4:59 PM
Bonds were facing headwinds as the week began. Friday had just seen an exceptionally strong NFP. Yields were quickly pushing toward the higher end o...
Mon, Aug 8 2016, 9:12 AM
Bond markets sold-off fairly aggressively following Friday's strong jobs report with 10yr yields moving up nearly 10bps and Fannie 3.0s falling roughl...
Mon, Aug 8 2016, 5:30 PM
Today could have been better, but it could have been much worse. After the big spike that followed Friday's jobs report, bonds were on the weaker edg...
Fri, Aug 5 2016, 8:29 AM
Granted, by the time most of you read this, NFP will already be out, but I'm not as interested in the initial reaction as I am in how things play out ...
Fri, Aug 5 2016, 6:39 PM
In the constantly-evolving modern era of market-watching, it's rare to see simply, old-school "cause and effect" relationship between data and market ...
Thu, Aug 4 2016, 8:44 AM
Bond markets are stronger out of the gate this morning as the Bank of England (BOE) followed through on expectations to cut its key policy rate from...
Thu, Aug 4 2016, 5:45 PM
This recap won't be too terribly different from the morning update on MBS Live. In fact, that's about all the more complicated today ended up being. ...
Wed, Aug 3 2016, 9:13 AM
Even if you're like me and have only watched survivor a few times, that's enough to understand the dynamic in bond markets today. Bonds can "survive...
Wed, Aug 3 2016, 5:50 PM
Here is the primer on Corporate Bond Issuance for those who need it. I realize it's been linked in almost every post this week, but that's the kind o...
Tue, Aug 2 2016, 8:52 AM
The 2 weeks leading up to last week's FOMC Announcement (and Bank of Japan too) saw an exceptionally narrow trading range. The 2 weeks before that sa...
Tue, Aug 2 2016, 5:24 PM
Bond markets capped a rather unpleasant 2-day move today. While 10yr yields only rose 3.4bps by the close, the losses put us right back in the 1.52-1...
Mon, Aug 1 2016, 8:59 AM
Back in 2015--almost exactly a year ago, actually--the order of the day was determining the timing of the Fed's first rate hike since the financial cr...
Mon, Aug 1 2016, 7:01 PM
We were already defensive, to some extent, about the possibility that last Friday's gains were driven by month-end trading needs. Indeed, there was a...
Fri, Jul 29 2016, 8:39 AM
With 10yr yields up only 2.2bps to begin the day and MBS down only 2 ticks, it's interesting to note that initial reaction to the overnight policy ann...
Fri, Jul 29 2016, 4:46 PM
Heading into the close at much stronger levels this afternoon, it would be easy to overlook the fact that bond markets were weaker overnight (followin...
Thu, Jul 28 2016, 9:06 AM
One tricky thing about technical analysis (things like moving averages and other mathematical formulas applied to charts in order to get them to cough...
Thu, Jul 28 2016, 4:57 PM
In the bigger picture, today was all about confirming and consolidating yesterday's gains. Trading levels held inside narrow ranges for both MBS an...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 8:21 AM
First thing's first: "consolidation" refers to a pronounced narrowing of a trading range after an uptrend or downtrend. Consolidations can occur with...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 4:49 PM
Dovish vs Hawkish: This refers to how accommodative the Fed's policy stance might be. Have you ever seen a hawk stare down its prey? That's how a ...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Apri...
Tue, Jul 26 2016, 9:03 AM
Smart stakeholders in financial markets tend to avoid assuming or asserting that particular trading levels WILL behave in a particular way. There are...
Tue, Jul 26 2016, 6:26 PM
Last week saw the yields increasingly hold inside the "new narrow" range between 1.54 and 1.59. Frankly, I felt like it was a long shot for that ra...
Mon, Jul 25 2016, 9:09 AM
Bond markets begin another week in the same sideways range, still waiting for the same events to suggest the next concerted effort to take yields hi...
Mon, Jul 25 2016, 4:30 PM
Bond markets did nothing wrong today. There was a bit of red on trade screens (indicating modestly higher yields in Treasuries and lower MBS prices...
Fri, Jul 22 2016, 9:05 AM
If bond-trading aliens scanned the universe for signs of life and happened upon planet earth this week, they probably wouldn't even send an imperial p...
Fri, Jul 22 2016, 5:32 PM
Bond markets had yet another uneventful day with yet another close inside the same old range that's dominated the entire week (with one brief exceptio...
Thu, Jul 21 2016, 8:49 AM
With slight weakness overnight, bonds begin the domestic trading session with their backs against the wall, yet again. The "wall" in this case could ...
MBS Market Alerts
