NFP Threads The Needle, But Doesn't Deliver a Rally

Things could have gone better or worse today following the release of the mighty NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the headline data point from the big jobs report).  NFP came in at 209k vs 225k forecasts which may as well have been "as-expected."  That was a victory in a sense, if we were comparing it to yesterday's ADP number (497k!).  Bonds rallied initially for exactly that reason, but then pulled back because 200k+ is still very solid--more than enough to keep the Fed on track to hike 2 more times in 2023.

Econ Data / Events
    • Nonfarm Payrolls
      • 209k vs 225k f'cast, 339k prev
    • Unemployment 
      • 3.6 vs 3.6 f'cast, 3.7 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:45 AM

Slightly weaker overnight, nice bounce after NFP, gains now evaporating.  10yr up 2.7bps at 4.058.  MBS down an eighth.

09:38 AM

Bonds fully erased gains, but are stabilizing once again.  10yr up 3.7bps at 4.064.  MBS down only 2 ticks (.06).

11:47 AM

MBS back into positive territory, up 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr yields are nearly unchanged again at 4.036.

03:45 PM

MBS back into negative territory, down 1 tick (.03) after being up as much as a quarter point.  10s are up 3bps at 4.062

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