Only So Many Ways to Say Sideways
It was an uneventful, boring, uninspiring, and unenlightening summertime Monday in the bond market--the kind that would have been put to far better use in the construction of another 3-day weekend. But alas! It happened (barely) and that leaves us with the unpleasant task of finding anything meaningful to observe. Such days reduce the analysis to focusing on technicals and bigger picture themes. On the technical front, 10s battled the 3.72% range floor yet again, but failed to maintain the breakout. The bigger picture theme of "recession and disinflation" versus "a surprisingly persistent status quo" received no compelling new evidence today (which makes it easier to reconcile the flatness).
Stronger overnight, but weaker since 9am. 10yr down half a bp at 3.73. MBS up 2 ticks, but down an eighth from AM highs.
Very flat after morning correction. MBS up 2 ticks (0.06) and 10yr yield down 1.6bps on the day at 3.721.
Completely unchanged since the last update. No relevant events or headlines.