As we witness the absolute lack of any meaningful volatility at the 3pm CME close today, we can safely say that month-end trades were pulled forward to this morning, and also to yesterday. That means Thursday's reaction to GDP/Claims may have been a bit overdone. In the absence of month-end, it would likely have been a large, in-range correction but not one that tested the range so aggressively. As for today, a friendly response to as-expected PCE inflation left bonds modestly stronger with little fanfare after the morning hours.
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- Core PCE Price Index
- 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.4 prev
- Core PCE (y/y)
- 4.6 vs 4.7 f'cast, 4.7 prev
- Consumer Sentiment
- 64.4 vs 63.9 f'cast, 59.2 prev
- Core PCE Price Index
Flat in Asia. Slightly weaker in Europe. Rallying in domestic trading. 10yr down 1.5bps at 3.827. MBS up an eighth.
Modest gains continue. MBS up 6 ticks (.19). 10yr down 3bps at 3.811.
Another flat afternoon. MBS up an eighth. 10yr down 2.3bps at 3.819.
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