AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil

To be clear, most of today's rally is attributable to the news on the Treasury buyback program discussed in the morning commentary. Today's consumer rate commentary also has a useful set of bullet points to recap the changes. Ultimately, the buyback news simply meant that the shortest-term debt suffered at the expense of longer-term debt. To put this in perspective, consider that 30yr yields are almost 10bps lower than they were at the open whereas 2yr yields are actually a few bps higher. If today's news was truly akin to QE or any sort of accommodation goal, we would not be seeing such trade-offs in the yield curve. Last but not least, oil prices made a round trip today from the lows of the day this morning at 8:35am to highs at 1pm and back down near the lows by the close. That ebb and flow coincided with intraday bond market volatility almost perfectly.