Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse

10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July and just over 4.75% today. That's the highest close since January 2025 which, at first glance, sounds pretty gloomy. But it's worth noting that several days have ended just a bp or two below today's levels. In other words, it was ultimately a small, incremental bump. Perhaps more importantly, it was not-at-all out of character with respect to the prevailing trend. 

Market Movement Recap
09:33 AM

MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.753

12:24 PM

MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.9 bps at 4.761

04:01 PM

MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.744

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