Good Week For Bonds. Next One Could be Interesting

The bond market traded about as well as anyone could have expected on a week where core monthly CPI came out at 0.3 vs 0.3.  If anything, the level of bullishness and resilience was a bit higher than the average market participant probably expected relative to the available data.  Part of the reason is speculation that we're about to receive some sort of confirmation that the Fed is willing to remain friendly despite the big drop in rates at the end of 2023.  There's specific speculation that Tuesday's appearance by Waller will contain clues about the Fed's road map.  We can't know if it will or won't... only that it would make for an interesting start to the holiday-shortened week.

Econ Data / Events
    • M/M Core PPI
      • 0.0 vs 0.2 f' cast, 0.0 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:34 AM

Slightly weaker overnight, but now stronger after PPI data. 10yr down 2.7bps at 3.948.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09).

02:37 PM

Sideways to slightly weaker but leveling off into the PM hours.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06).  10yr down 1.9bps at 3.956

04:45 PM

Heading out with resilience intact.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 3.6bps at 3.939.

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