Thu, Sep 21 2023, 12:27 PM
Wednesday was a confirmation of a hawkish Fed that won't care about the economy until it sees actual damage, and even then, only if that damage coinci...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 4:43 PM
Higher For Longer
Today's Fed announcement was largely as expected: no rate hike, "data dependent," and "hig...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate solid pace. Job gains have been robust slowed in recent month...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 11:53 AM
Learning how to make a big deal out of every Fed day is a requirement for passing the market commentary test. But the often-overlooked extra credit c...
Tue, Sep 19 2023, 4:30 PM
Bonds Get Pre-Fed Jitters After a Mostly Flat Day
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory, mostly...
Tue, Sep 19 2023, 10:42 AM
Arrr, me hearties! Last week, there be a mighty surge towards them long-term highs in the Treasury yields. But alas! With no bounty of econ data to st...
Mon, Sep 18 2023, 4:08 PM
Uneventful Monday Fits Fed Week Narrative
After last week's economic data ebbed and bonds sold-off with Euro...
Mon, Sep 18 2023, 12:49 PM
With limited data of any particular relevance ahead of this week's Fed announcement, the path of least resistance in the bond market would be for a br...
Fri, Sep 15 2023, 5:18 PM
Ceiling Defense!
There are two ways to look at today's weakness in the bond market. On one hand, yields did ...
Fri, Sep 15 2023, 9:56 AM
Yesterday's natural impulse for the domestic bond market would simply have been to move toward higher rates due to a raft of upbeat economic data in t...
Thu, Sep 14 2023, 4:26 PM
Europe Helps US Bonds Avoid a Bigger Data-Driven Sell-Off
In a vacuum of "data dependency," today should hav...
Thu, Sep 14 2023, 12:13 PM
If you had to guess at what this morning's economic data would have done to the bond market ahead of time, current trading levels would almost certain...
Wed, Sep 13 2023, 4:32 PM
What's Up With The Paradoxical Post-CPI Rally?
The bond market stared down today's month-over-month core CPI...
Wed, Sep 13 2023, 12:31 PM
Core month-over-month CPI came in at 0.3% versus a 0.2% forecast. This would be bad for bonds at first glance, and indeed it was--at least initially....
Tue, Sep 12 2023, 4:59 PM
Calm Waters Again, But Tomorrow Could Rock The Boat
Much like yesterday (which saw the narrowest 10yr yield ...
Tue, Sep 12 2023, 10:39 AM
Bonds may be up a bit and down a bit between now and yesterday's close, but none of it is super consequential in the bigger picture. Of course there ...
Mon, Sep 11 2023, 3:49 PM
Flattest Trading Day in 2 Years
Bonds began the overnight session in slightly weaker territory and held almo...
Mon, Sep 11 2023, 12:33 PM
At times over the past 2 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been the most important economic report on any given month and has had a bigger imp...
Fri, Sep 8 2023, 4:08 PM
Uneventful Friday. Thoughts Turning to CPI
Apart from the fact that 10yr Treasury yields are about 25bps hig...
Fri, Sep 8 2023, 11:16 AM
There weren't any huge, obvious market movers in the overnight session. The average analyst is chalking up bond gains to good old "global growth conc...
Thu, Sep 7 2023, 3:36 PM
Stronger Bonds Despite Stronger Data
In this very "data dependent" environment, it was no surprise to see bo...
Thu, Sep 7 2023, 10:02 AM
Bonds have been waiting in line for a shift in the economic data and the rally that might result, but the ill-tempered econ data continues the refrain...
Wed, Sep 6 2023, 4:21 PM
Straightforward sell-off
Bonds managed to begin the day sideways to slightly stronger, although the strength...
Wed, Sep 6 2023, 10:59 AM
It's not as if the bond market magically knew that today's non-manufacturing PMIs would come in hotter than expected, but they were clearly trading de...
Tue, Sep 5 2023, 4:48 PM
Issuance and Holiday Hangover Hitting Bonds
Bonds were decently weaker on the first day back after Labor Day...
Tue, Sep 5 2023, 12:24 PM
After a frustrating selling spree last Friday, bonds are starting the new week with a bit more selling. Much like Friday, justifications are not as s...
Fri, Sep 1 2023, 3:47 PM
What's Up With Friday's Sell-Off?
Bonds lost ground today and it definitely wasn't as simple as traders havi...
Fri, Sep 1 2023, 11:50 AM
Bonds rallied out of the gate after the jobs report came out this morning. Perhaps it was the fact that 187k isn't much higher than the 170k forecast...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 4:35 PM
Pssst. Some People Think NFP Could be Even Weaker Than Forecast
This morning's economic data came out slight...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 11:20 AM
Another morning, another set of economic reports with the power to move markets. Today's examples included jobless claims coming in at 228 vs 235k, c...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 4:38 PM
Bond Rally a Victim of Its Own Success
This morning's economic data was bond-friendly, but not as unequivoca...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 12:25 PM
On a week fraught with important economic data, the results continue coming in on the weaker side of forecasts and bonds continue to like it. While y...
Tue, Aug 29 2023, 4:20 PM
Is The Top In?
No one had much to say or think about JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) over...
Tue, Aug 29 2023, 11:07 AM
While bonds may have started the day drifting into slightly weaker territory, losses have quickly shifted to gains in the wake of this morning's big t...
Mon, Aug 28 2023, 3:35 PM
Fairly Uneventful But Perhaps Not For Long
The week began with a perfectly normal example of a summertime Mo...
Mon, Aug 28 2023, 11:25 AM
The "data dependent" waiting game is nothing new, even if there have been some changes in how the market has interpreted data. Specifically, the days...
Fri, Aug 25 2023, 3:11 PM
Absolutely No Surprises From Powell
What a letdown, but also what an unsurprising speech from Fed Chair Powe...
Fri, Aug 25 2023, 1:13 PM
With the mortgage industry in the throes of its worst era since the GFC (Great Financial Crisis), comparisons are inevitable. If you didn't live thr...
Thu, Aug 24 2023, 4:16 PM
Bonds Opt to Avoid Exuberance Ahead of Powell
After Wednesday's big rally ended with bonds near their best l...
Thu, Aug 24 2023, 11:55 AM
With the morning economic data having come and gone with little fanfare, the most significant role today can fill is as a placeholder. It offers the ...
Wed, Aug 23 2023, 4:51 PM
Snowball Rally, But Does it Change Anything?
After more than 2 weeks of relentless selling that took yields ...
Wed, Aug 23 2023, 11:35 AM
Any time bonds are as oversold as they were yesterday, there's a better chance of a bigger corrective rally when a reason to rally finally presents it...
Tue, Aug 22 2023, 4:36 PM
Absence of Additional Weakness
Today's trading session doesn't really qualify as a strong one for the bond m...
Tue, Aug 22 2023, 12:33 PM
Recall the title of last Friday's recap: "This is How They Get Ya." There is no "they," and no one is really trying to deceive you. Rather, the inte...
Mon, Aug 21 2023, 3:25 PM
Another Day in The New, Higher Rate Reality
"Higher for longer," they said. And they weren't kidding. Afte...
Mon, Aug 21 2023, 12:13 PM
The new week begins with bond yields at the highest levels since 2007 in what has been a broadly linear uptrend since late July. Up until that point,...
Fri, Aug 18 2023, 4:49 PM
This is How They Get Ya
Bonds ended up rallying a bit to close out the week, sorta. 10yr yields were 3bps l...
Fri, Aug 18 2023, 10:51 AM
Like the crowd that cheers when their team scores late in a game that they have no hope of winning, it's hard not to feel some sense of relief or opti...
Thu, Aug 17 2023, 3:37 PM
Bonds Came Here to Chew Gum and Sell Off, And They're All Out of Gum
There comes a time in protracted bond m...
Thu, Aug 17 2023, 1:36 PM
The GFC (great financial crisis) shaped and reshaped the worldview of any market-watcher that lived through it. The 70s/80s were increasingly seen as...
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