Wed, Oct 5 2022, 9:58 AM
As feared, the recent rally in the bond market is quickly proving that it was fueled by a correction from panicked levels surrounding the UK drama in ...
Tue, Oct 4 2022, 4:36 PM
Bonds Might Have Lost Ground Today if Not For Big Data Surprise
Bonds ended up scratching out modest gains t...
Tue, Oct 4 2022, 1:01 PM
Bonds got off to a decent start in the overnight session with help from a lower-than-expected rate hike from the RBA (Australia's central bank) and on...
Mon, Oct 3 2022, 3:28 PM
Nice Rally, But Not Out of The Woods Yet
Bonds rallied in two distinct waves on Monday. The first came in ...
Mon, Oct 3 2022, 11:12 AM
Bond yields trickled sideways to slightly stronger to start the overnight session, but experienced better gains as the big news out of the UK made the...
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 4:25 PM
Month-End Selling Keeps Rates Range-Bound
You've perhaps heard of month-end bond buying? How about month-en...
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 12:04 PM
Today's calendar may have contained what the Fed refers to as its preferred inflation metric (Core PCE price index), but it was never likely to be a b...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 4:26 PM
Data Dependent Reality Keeps Bonds in Check
Wednesday's emergency bond buying announcement from the BOE serv...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 9:51 AM
Wednesday's rally offered hope after the BOE stepped in with emergency bond buying. The overnight session that followed painted a slightly less hopef...
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 4:57 PM
Is Wednesday's Rally Enough to Turn The Tide?
10yr yields began the day with overnight levels easily over 4....
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 1:21 PM
Bond biggest recent issues were caused by a fiscal announcement in the UK that would drastically increase debt and decrease revenue (read: inflationar...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 4:19 PM
Beware The False Hope in MBS Today
MBS ended up with a nice little rally after 2pm that brought prices 3/8th...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 12:19 PM
While there's no way to know exactly when it will happen, there's always some point at the end of an epic sell-off where prices have dropped enough to...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 4:23 PM
Why do US Rates Suddenly Care About The UK?
If you're just getting caught up, UK fiscal policy is probably a...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 11:36 AM
After a glimmer of hope at the end of last week, bonds are back to their old tricks. Actually, they only have one trick recently: selling-off at a fa...
Fri, Sep 23 2022, 4:44 PM
Let's Talk About Whether It's Time To Talk About Some Resilience
A large, rapid rate spike is frequently one...
Fri, Sep 23 2022, 12:40 PM
The positive close on a volatile Fed day offered false hope for rates--a fact that was laid bare with Thursday's massive sell-off. Now on Friday, mor...
Thu, Sep 22 2022, 3:30 PM
Why So Much Selling Today Instead of Yesterday?
Today is one of those interesting and massive selling sprees...
Thu, Sep 22 2022, 11:47 AM
The market made it through yesterday's Fed announcement in deceptively sideways fashion as far as bonds were concerned. 7-10yr Treasuries managed mod...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 6:01 PM
Stunningly Sideways After an Important Fed Day
By the time the Fed announcement rolled around, the financ...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators of point to modest growth in spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, job production. Job gains have been robust in...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 8:57 AM
There continue to be headlines regarding some sort of "mobilization" of troops with the most recent seeing Putin claim that the West is threatening Ru...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 3:45 PM
Here's What Matters on Fed Day
Bonds sold off some more today because why not?! 10yr yields were more invol...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 10:23 AM
The overnight session was frustrating exercise in "position-squaring," which is a term we often use as a sort of generic, hifalutin way of saying "tha...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 4:22 PM
Bond Buyers on Strike Until They Hear From The Fed
There were a few way the run up to this week's Fed announ...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 11:20 AM
It's an understatement to say that "all eyes are on the Fed" this Wednesday as the committee meets to decide whether to hike 75 vs 100bps, among other...
Fri, Sep 16 2022, 5:08 PM
Traders Hit Snooze Button, With Next Alarm Set For Fed Day
Nothing really happened in the bond market today ...
Fri, Sep 16 2022, 11:39 AM
Whereas an investor knows the rate of return on something like a Treasury note, MBS require a bit of guesswork because borrowers can opt to sell or re...
Thu, Sep 15 2022, 4:25 PM
Have Bonds Lost Enough Ground to Imply Some Relief?
Rates are as high as they've been in 14 years and have m...
Thu, Sep 15 2022, 11:29 AM
Bonds traded an almost perfectly straight, gradually-sloped line toward higher yields overnight and were even able to mostly ignore moderate volatilit...
Wed, Sep 14 2022, 4:53 PM
Slow and Sideways as Markets Wait For Bigger News
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory but ral...
Wed, Sep 14 2022, 11:47 AM
While it continues to be the case that upcoming economic data and next week's Fed announcement are more than capable of taking bonds into new high yie...
Tue, Sep 13 2022, 3:31 PM
Unfortunate, But Logical Reaction to Much Hotter Core Inflation
Markets had been waiting on today's CPI repo...
Tue, Sep 13 2022, 9:57 AM
We knew there was a lot riding on today's CPI data and that it was highly likely to inspire a big move higher or lower for bonds if it came in much hi...
Mon, Sep 12 2022, 3:53 PM
Potentially Decent Day Turns Sour After 10yr Treasury Auction
The first day of the new week began innocently...
Mon, Sep 12 2022, 10:02 AM
There are times when a particular event garners too much attention as the most important consideration for bond market momentum. If any event were to...
Fri, Sep 9 2022, 8:12 PM
Fairly Inconsequential Friday Ahead of a Very Consequential Week Ahead
Despite feeling like a bumpy ride at times, the bond market actually didn...
Fri, Sep 9 2022, 12:21 PM
Bonds had a respectable overnight session with steady gains seen mostly during European hours. Then in the early part of the domestic session, it was...
Thu, Sep 8 2022, 4:43 PM
Bonds Close Weaker After Early Volatility and Late-Day Illiquidity
As has been the case for so many afternoo...
Thu, Sep 8 2022, 11:36 AM
Fairly simple morning so far: the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked its policy rate by the expected 75bps. There wasn't much of a reaction to that. ...
Wed, Sep 7 2022, 4:49 PM
Nice Push Back Against Tuesday's Weakness. ECB On Deck
Tuesday was brutal and the only real explanation for...
Wed, Sep 7 2022, 11:56 AM
Corporate bond issuance is one of those slightly esoteric concepts to the average rate watcher and usually a completely foreign concept to the average...
Tue, Sep 6 2022, 4:27 PM
Steady Afternoon Leaves Steep AM Losses Intact
Today's recap could just as easily be this morning's commenta...
Tue, Sep 6 2022, 10:53 AM
Summertime seasonality is one of the worst kept secrets among bond forecasters. Simply put, since 2010, this is only the 3rd year where yields haven'...
Fri, Sep 2 2022, 5:40 PM
Why Stronger Jobs Data Gave Way to a Rate Rally
Anything over 300k is big number for nonfarm payrolls. Toda...
Fri, Sep 2 2022, 11:05 AM
For weeks on end, it's been "sell first and ask questions later" for the bond market. Any econ data that's been at least halfway decent has been at r...
Thu, Sep 1 2022, 4:40 PM
Where We Are, Where We Might Be Going, And How We Might Get There
The first day of September found a way to ...
Thu, Sep 1 2022, 10:36 AM
Imagine hosting a cocktail party with guests arriving and departing at random times. A particularly rowdy and unpleasant guest--let's call them "Augu...
Wed, Aug 31 2022, 4:28 PM
So Long August. Don't Let The Door Hit Ya!
July! We miss you!
August, please leave!
Hopefully Septemb...
Wed, Aug 31 2022, 12:15 PM
If you've been surprised by the extent to which US bonds have been hit by European inflation reports in the past month, you're not alone. Granted, th...
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