Mon, Apr 29 2024, 4:02 PM
Decent Resilience in Spite of a Few Headwinds
Considering the volatility that may lie ahead, Monday ended up...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 11:17 AM
Monday is one of the quietest days of the week although there will be a potentially important update at 3pm when Treasury releases borrowing estimates...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 5:21 PM
Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers
Thursday's quarterly PCE numbers ...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 12:25 PM
WARNING: once you get past the 1st paragraph here, things start to get a bit "mathy" and esoteric. The takeaway is that there's an actual way to reco...
Thu, Apr 25 2024, 4:01 PM
Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data
Today's big surprise was the PCE price index compone...
Thu, Apr 25 2024, 11:37 AM
It's a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement. At face value the headlines make a ...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 4:43 PM
Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data
Bonds were weaker in the overnight session on a combina...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 10:31 AM
The bond market has been decidedly more sideways after hitting longer-term yield highs last Tuesday. 10yr Treasuries have been a relatively narrow ra...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Straightforward Gains After PMI Data
Tuesday's session was infinitely more interesting than Monday's with th...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 11:56 AM
Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase "data dependent" has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to u...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 4:19 PM
Boring Monday Keeps The Focus on Next Week
Monday may as well have been a 3rd weekend day as far as the bond...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 8:47 AM
It's no secret that a vast majority of bond market movement these days occurs in response to a small handful of economic reports and the Fed's quarter...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 4:32 PM
Sometimes Sideways is The Best Case Scenario
Granted, there was a possibility that today could have been a r...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 10:06 AM
The overnight session began with a very clear flight to safety in stocks (sell) and bonds (buy) on headlines regarding increased hostilities between I...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 3:55 PM
Good News and Bad News About Today's Selling
The bad news is that bonds resumed their weaker tendencies toda...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 12:09 PM
After the best day in a month and a half on Wednesday, the bond market is back to its recent habit of selling off and moving toward higher yields. It...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 4:32 PM
Too Soon to Say Higher Yields Are Bringing Buyers?
Bonds enjoyed their best day in more than a month and a h...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 11:16 AM
The bond market is getting off to a stronger start today despite an absence of any new motivations in the news or economic calendar. In fact, the cal...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 4:54 PM
Powell Confirms What The Bond Market Already Knew
Morning hours were frustrating for the bond market as we w...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 11:25 AM
Yesterday's commentary pulled an occasionally used phrase off the shelf by referring to recent weakness as a "repricing" in the broader bond market. ...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 3:52 PM
Data-Driven Repricing Continues
There are two kinds of "repricing" to consider when you're a mortgage market...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 11:28 AM
The bond market sold off steadily and gradually overnight session despite news of escalation between Iran and Israel. Ever since the start of the war...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 5:04 PM
Time to Hurry Up and Wait Again
Friday ended up being reasonably pleasant, but mostly uneventful. Gains wer...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 10:22 AM
Bonds began the overnight session in modestly stronger territory but the gains started adding up in earnest after European markets opened for the day....
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 4:39 PM
About as Uneventful as it Could Have Been
Any time we have a huge day of movement, regardless of the reason,...
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 12:10 PM
After a day like Wednesday (one of the top 20 weakest bond market days of the past few decades), one of the top concerns is that the following day wil...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 4:16 PM
A Really Bad Day For The Bond Market
To reiterate the point made in today's morning commentary, there was a ...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 11:38 AM
When it comes to big ticket economic events, the average anticipatory headline tends to be a bit more dramatic than the actual outcome. It's our way ...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 4:27 PM
Nice Tuesday For Bonds, But It's All About Wednesday
Tuesday turned out to be great for bonds with MBS up ne...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 9:36 AM
The overnight session was generally a mirror image of yesterday's with 10yr yields moving several bps lower in a linear, steady trend. Unlike yesterd...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 4:42 PM
Uneventful, Sideways Day After Initial Losses
Today had the dubious distinction of seeing the highest yields...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 11:49 AM
Bonds began the new week with follow-through selling overseas. Losses were steady and linear in both Asia and Europe. It's tempting to chalk up some...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 3:37 PM
Bond Market Resilience Suggests More Focus on CPI
Up until the 3pm CME close, the bond market was having a s...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 11:23 AM
The jobs number came in at 303k this morning versus a median forecast of 200k. Previous month revisions added a minimal 22k to the 3 month total and ...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 4:33 PM
Mysterious Afternoon Gains Bring Yields Back Into The Range Just Before Jobs Report
It was a surprisingly an...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 12:02 PM
Thursday is shaping up to be a calmer and less eventful trading day than the two most recent examples. It's similar in the sense that there was some ...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 4:06 PM
Carbon Copy Day For MBS
The date and underlying events may have changed, but the price action in MBS was str...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 11:38 AM
Bonds remain under pressure this week, but the pressure is turning out to be slightly lower than it was earlier this morning. Overnight weakness was ...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 4:00 PM
Technical Breakout in Treasuries. Does it Matter?
Bonds began the day in much weaker territory as Treasuries...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 11:12 AM
Bonds came into the domestic trading day with additional losses. This wasn't a foregone conclusion, but it was a distinct possibility based on past e...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 3:54 PM
Positioning and Data Deliver Double Whammy For Bonds
There were no whammies last week as bonds drifted sidew...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 9:00 AM
There are two times of morning that could be considered "the open" for the bond market. As far as the futures market is concerned, it's 8:20am as tha...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 3:22 PM
Some Month-End Volatility Late in The Day
Yields were near 2 week lows 2 hours before the final trades of th...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 12:24 PM
While the future can't ever be known, this week's base case was for lower volatility, and a general sideways drift heading into the long weekend and b...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 3:55 PM
Treasury Auction Relief Rally and Month-End Support
With Thursday being a half day before a 3.5 day weekend,...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 11:35 AM
There are no significant economic data on tap today. The only notable event is the 7yr Treasury auction (the last of the week) and it's a bit of a st...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 4:14 PM
Mixed Performance. Data Hurt. Auction Helped. Little Changed
In the bigger picture, bonds found resistance b...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 12:16 PM
Welcome to day 4 of our unofficial 9 day weekend with limited data and volatility ahead of an actual 3.5 day weekend. Is data truly limited if we hav...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 4:18 PM
Weaker Start, But MBS Outperform
The week got off to a weaker start with most of the losses seen during the ...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 11:01 AM
Monday marks the start of a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday) and the beginning of a week that will conclude...
MBS Market Alerts
