Mon, Nov 28 2022, 12:20 PM
Bonds were effectively closed for a 4-day weekend starting with Thanksgiving last Thursday. True, Friday was technically open for half a day, but vol...
Fri, Nov 25 2022, 9:11 AM
MBS live will be operating in "holiday light" mode today. The weekly newsletter is on holiday but will be back next week. Commentary and alerts will...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 3:26 PM
Rates Recover Nicely After Fed Minutes
Today was the only day of the holiday-shortened week with any meaning...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 11:04 AM
We'd be the first to advocate taking Thanksgiving week trading momentum with a grain of salt, so this morning's discussion is less about drawing conne...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 3:25 PM
Light Participation Limits MBS Gains as Treasuries Shrug Off Weak Auction
Today's 7yr Treasury auction was o...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 10:38 AM
Welcome to the bond market on Thanksgiving week in a year with the fastest rate spike in 4 decades, driven by inflation. This year, it just so happen...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 3:41 PM
Random, Inconsequential Volatility Driven by Holiday Week Trading Conditions
No sooner did we finish reading...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 9:51 AM
Whereas humans might feel sleepy after a big holiday meal, the bond market often feels that way for the entire holiday week. Thanksgiving week is one...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 3:59 PM
Modest Losses But Uneventful in The Bigger Picture
'Tis the season for the bond market to enter holiday trad...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 11:37 AM
One unfortunate side effect of the general hyperfocus on inflation as the biggest issue facing markets is that bonds have been able to bounce from one...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 4:10 PM
Weaker Today, But Still in Solid Territory Despite Fed Push-Back
Bonds lost a bit of ground overnight and th...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 10:15 AM
After spending the first 3 days of the week attempting to moderately extend the gains, bonds are finding some resistance today. Comments from St. Lou...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 3:43 PM
Decent Rally Despite Strong Retail Sales and Hawkish Fed Speakers
It was an interesting day for the bond mar...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 11:43 AM
The day is getting off to an interesting start as stronger Retail Sales data initially pushed yields higher. That weakness lasted for less than half ...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:57 PM
1 Step Back and 1 Step Forward So Far This Week
Bonds made solid gains overnight, largely following a rally ...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 11:06 AM
Today kicks off with the Producer Price Index painting a similar picture to last week's CPI data. Specifically, monthly wholesale inflation dropped 0...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 4:14 PM
The Best Half Point MBS Sell-Off
On probably any other day, a half point sell-off in MBS would be bad new...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 12:02 PM
In case you missed Thursday's trading session last week, it was epic--one of the biggest single-day rallies on record and the biggest drop in mortgage...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 5:19 PM
Biggest Rally in Over a Decade After CPI Overdelivers
You may have been tired of hearing just how important ...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 10:58 AM
This morning's trading action offers resounding validation of the market's hyperfocus on this particular CPI report. In a month where the average pri...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 11:41 AM
Heading into the week, the absence of tradable data on 3 out of the 4 days was readily apparent. Bonds were left at the mercy of tradeflows (all the ...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 4:19 PM
Super Sideways After Solid Gains, But Nothing Matters Until Thursday
Today's news cycle was dominated by pol...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 12:10 PM
To be sure, the bond market absolutely CAN experience significant volatility in response to election outcomes, but the extent of that volatility depen...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 4:29 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Fret Over Issuance
As Thursday's CPI looms on the horizon as this week's defini...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 11:47 AM
With essentially nothing on the economic calendar on Monday, the most notable headline for the bond market has been the announcement of at least 13 ne...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 4:13 PM
Ho Hum NFP Friday; MBS Outperform; 50 is The New 75
After being steadily crushed to the most inverted levels...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 11:28 AM
This morning's centerpiece was the nonfarm payrolls number coming in at 260 versus a median forecast of 200k. Additionally, the previous month was re...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 4:30 PM
Post Fed Weakness Keeping Markets on Edge
Wednesday's Fed reaction reverberated through overseas markets ove...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 12:33 PM
Powell did as was expected yesterday by acknowledging an eventual conversation about slowing the pace of rate hikes while at the same time reminding m...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 5:34 PM
Powell Sticks To Same Script (The One That Bonds Don't Really Like)
Today's much-anticipated Fed announcemen...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 11:57 AM
The Fed has 8 scheduled meetings per year. 4 of them include a dot plot with each member's rate hike outlook. Those announcement days tend to produc...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 4:52 PM
Both Sides of The Market Eagerly Trading Fed Cues
Stocks and bonds both began the day in stronger territory ...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 12:43 PM
November kicked off with a strong showing from buyers after October's month-end session saw a fair amount of selling. But the gains didn't last long....
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 4:29 PM
Late Day Volatility Surrounding Month-End and Corporate Issuance
The day got off to a slow start with bonds ...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 11:24 AM
Bonds are contending with a modest amount of weakness overnight, but not enough to derail our conclusion that bonds have leveled off after an overdone...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 4:10 PM
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important
Heading into the current week, it wasn't...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 10:03 AM
Throughout the week, we've been of the mind that last week's losses were overdone and this week's gains represented a correction to that unjustified w...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 3:34 PM
Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide
Bonds may have moved into stronger territory tod...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 11:37 AM
Today began with bonds in moderately weaker territory after token defensive positioning following a solid rally and ahead of the week's more consequen...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 5:06 PM
Another Solid Day; Detailed Discussion on 5.0 Coupons vs 7% Rates
Bonds are trading better than they have at...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 12:31 PM
A bit of housekeeping before we get to the UMBS question...
Bonds have have been rallying very well since yesterday morning. At the same time, the ...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 4:34 PM
Strong Showing For Bonds. So Have Things Changed?
Bonds rallied overnight of their own volition and in conce...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 12:13 PM
Bonds rallied at a solid pace overnight with gains in both Asian and European sessions. More impressive, however, have been the domestic session gain...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 4:50 PM
US Bonds Try (And Fail) To Follow The EU Rally
The average day over the past few weeks/months has seen a hig...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 12:00 PM
The end of last week was a wild little emotional roller coaster for the bond market. Thursday brought a sharp sell-off that spilled into the overnigh...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 4:47 PM
Crazy, Scary Morning Gives Way to Moderate Gains
The bond market gamed the Fed today, and won (i.e. the long...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 12:34 PM
The bond market began the day by doing its best impression of lover scorned, threatening self harm unless it gets some sort of validation from its for...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 5:27 PM
Important Day For Bonds and an Important Conversation About MBS Coupons
The important conversation about MBS...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 11:59 AM
Everyone is tired of the persistent sell-off in the bond market, but weariness is no match for the negative momentum. We've long since run out of ways...
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