Mon, Mar 13 2023, 8:59 AM
Despite the announcement of a Fed/Treasury/FDIC backstop for SVB and Signature Bank, financial markets are trading as if current events imply a sea ch...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 3:20 PM
SVB > NFP = Supermassive Bond Rally
In a matter of 48 hours, Silicon Valley Bank has gone from being a compa...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 12:36 PM
The most notable development on jobs day has stunningly turned out to be the trading that came before the jobs report in the overnight session. Bonds...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 3:24 PM
Thursday Was Nice, But It's All About Friday
There wasn't much for the bond market to sink its teeth into on...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 9:11 AM
After a ho-hum and mostly sideways overnight session, bonds are starting the day with a surprisingly swift reaction to the Jobless Claims data. While...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 4:26 PM
Slightly Weaker, But It Could Have Been Worse
Bonds are heading out the door in only moderately weaker terri...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 11:20 AM
The world "resilient" has frequently been repeated in the commentary over the past two weeks, and today is already shaping up to be worth adding to th...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 3:53 PM
Rate Hike Expectations Ramp Up Post Powell
Even though Fed Chair Powell didn't say anything remarkably new o...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 9:25 AM
5 weeks ago, markets digested a very ho-hum Fed announcement and rate hike, eventually rallying to the prevailing range floor just under 3.40% in 10yr...
Mon, Mar 6 2023, 4:11 PM
Stronger Start Gives Way to Weaker Finish
Bonds improved in overnight trading with most of the gains seen du...
Mon, Mar 6 2023, 12:21 PM
Bonds are starting out the new week with an overnight rally offset by domestic selling pressure. Yields were as low as 3.90 right as US traders were ...
Fri, Mar 3 2023, 4:36 PM
Bonds Start Strong and Finish Stronger Despite Decent Data
Today's trading action flew in the face of the pr...
Fri, Mar 3 2023, 1:43 PM
Bonds rallied nicely in the overnight session and extended the gains in the first few hours of domestic trading. The ISM Services data came in just a...
Thu, Mar 2 2023, 3:26 PM
5 Minutes of Selling, Then Sideways All Day
Bonds were moderately weaker overnight with EU inflation data le...
Thu, Mar 2 2023, 12:14 PM
Rates are surging higher yet again. It wasn't necessarily destined to be the case. In fact, rates could just as easily be moving lower. the problem...
Wed, Mar 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Unfriendly Breakout Driven by Data
Bond yields had been pushing up against 3.98% (10yr Treasury) for the pas...
Wed, Mar 1 2023, 10:16 AM
"Resilience" has been the theme of the past several trading days as 10yr yields have held the ceiling at 3.98%. That ceiling is now facing its most l...
Tue, Feb 28 2023, 3:59 PM
More Signs of Resilience Amid Month-End Buying Spree
It was a generally resilient day for the bond market af...
Tue, Feb 28 2023, 9:54 AM
The message from today's overnight trading session is clear: European yields have broken well above their most recent ceiling after hotter inflation d...
Mon, Feb 27 2023, 4:08 PM
Bonds Hold Ground Despite Onslaught of Corporate Issuance
The day began with bonds rallying back into positi...
Mon, Feb 27 2023, 11:29 AM
Many times, we can't categorize a week of bond trading without seeing how the subsequent week begins. With that in mind, last week is increasingly lo...
Fri, Feb 24 2023, 5:08 PM
Weaker After PCE Data, But it Could Have Been Worse
PCE Inflation data has been relegated to an "occasional ...
Fri, Feb 24 2023, 12:31 PM
Both Wednesday and Thursday saw bonds hold their ground and make modest intraday improvements. Both days contributed to the possibility that Tuesday'...
Thu, Feb 23 2023, 3:52 PM
Ceiling Signs or Is It a Trap?
Bonds began the day in weaker territory with extra selling signals following ...
Thu, Feb 23 2023, 12:41 PM
At some point during the current selling spree, bonds will find a point of equilibrium where traders feel they've adequately protected themselves from...
Wed, Feb 22 2023, 3:55 PM
This Is How They Get Ya!
Bonds weathered the storm of a Treasury auction and the Fed meeting minutes today w...
Wed, Feb 22 2023, 12:05 PM
When you see the phrase "Fed Minutes" don't confuse it for the "Fed Announcement." Both events involve a Fed meeting, but one of these things is not ...
Tue, Feb 21 2023, 4:05 PM
Data Fuels Ongoing Scramble Toward Higher Rates
Almost the entire month of February has been a mad dash from...
Tue, Feb 21 2023, 11:49 AM
Heading into the 3 day weekend, we knew there was a risk that Friday's rally was driven by position squaring (i.e. traders buying bonds in order to co...
Fri, Feb 17 2023, 4:20 PM
Legit Buying Demand or Position Squaring?
"Position squaring" is fancy market jargon that refers to closing ...
Fri, Feb 17 2023, 9:42 AM
The current landscape is fairly simple. The bond market has been in the midst of a "repricing" event following the jobs report at the beginning of th...
Thu, Feb 16 2023, 3:31 PM
Another Day, Another Sell-Off
Bonds may not have sold off in an overly excessive manner today, but they sold...
Thu, Feb 16 2023, 9:27 AM
The bond market has specialized in playing defense for most of February as economic data and consistently hawkish Fed messaging paints a bleak pictur...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 3:40 PM
More Yield Curve Musings and Retail Sales Reaction
Retail Sales was today's big ticket data point and it cam...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 12:08 PM
Yesterday's CPI data validated the Fed's constant refrain regarding persistent inflation. This morning's Retail Sales data (for the month of January)...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 3:25 PM
More Data to Prove The Fed's Point; Rates Don't Like It
It will take one of two things for the current risin...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 9:53 AM
Given that today's bond trading volume has already eclipsed yesterday's, it's fair to say traders were every bit as anxious to trade this data as we e...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 4:14 PM
Which CPI Number Matters Most and How Wide is The Potential Range of Reactions?
Monday turned out to be an i...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 12:11 PM
Bonds got a good amount of selling out of the way last week as markets finally picked up what the Fed has been putting down for months. All it took w...
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 4:15 PM
Bonds Keep Fading; Cue The CPI Anxiety
This morning's commentary headline was "if bonds aren't rallying, the...
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 11:25 AM
At the risk of repeating a common thesis in recent days, bonds had a choice to make at the end of January. The decision was whether or not a rally of...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 3:11 PM
Gains Evaporate After Weaker Auction; Sideways Volatility Expected Ahead of CPI
CPI, NFP, CPI, Fed Day, NFP,...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 12:17 PM
The order of business this week has been fairly simple. The market had been telling itself that the Fed would end up cutting rates by the end of 2023...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 4:17 PM
Strong Auction Helps, But Not Enough to Get Rates Back Into The Recent Range
Without much economic data this...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 9:57 AM
One of the biggest uncertainties of the week was resolved on Tuesday with Fed Chair Powell answering questions about the policy outlook without any re...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 3:19 PM
Bonds Tried (And Failed) to Sustain Post-Powell Rally
After much anticipation and defensive positioning, the...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 9:11 AM
In the wake of last week's strong economic data on Friday and follow-through weakness in overseas markets, traders are gearing up for additional Fed r...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 3:23 PM
Suddenly Scared About Powell and Supply
Most of today's market movement was in the books within the first ha...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 9:47 AM
Friday's strong jobs report and ISM data caused obvious, immediate problems for rates, but bonds held their ground fairly well all things considered. ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:31 PM
Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact
Coming into the week, yields were near the top of a narrow ...
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