Sleepy Bonds Rudely Roused by Surprisingly Strong Econ Data

Perhaps fate was tempted by our persistent focus on this week's absence of big ticket market movers.  Or perhaps this is simply the biggest possible reaction to one of the week's only potential market movers coming in MUCH higher than expected.  After all, the mantra has been that nothing that happens inside a range of 4.34 to 4.50 in 10yr Treasury yields is interesting.  While that remains true in the bigger picture, today's reaction to the S&P Global Services PMI data was about as interesting as an uninteresting thing can be, causing an immediate spike from 4.42+ to 4.49+.  While the size of the beat is certainly surprising (54.8 vs 51.3 f'cast), the market reaction to such an event is logical.

Econ Data / Events
    • Jobless Claims
      • 215k vs 220k f'cast, 223k prev
    • Chi Fed Activity Index
      • -0.23 vs +0.125 f'cast, 0.15 prev
    • S&P Services Global PMI
      • 54.8 vs 51.3 f'cast, 51.3 prev
    • New Home Sales
      • 634k vs 680k f'cast, 665k prev
Market Movement Recap
08:35 AM

Mostly flat overnight and little-changed after data.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.8bps at 4.415

10:33 AM

Sharply weaker after PMI data.  MBS down just over a quarter point.  10yr up 7.1bps at 4.496

02:35 PM

continuing modest recovery after AM weakness with MBS down 7 ticks (.23) and 10yr up 0.5 bps at 4.474

03:28 PM

Unchanged From the previous update at the 3pm CME close.

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