Tue, Apr 10 2018, 9:19 AM
Although today's 8:30am data has the trigger phrase "price index," it's not the price index you're looking for. That will come tomorrow in the form o...
Mon, Apr 9 2018, 5:04 PM
Without any major events or data on the econ calendar, it was a calm and relatively inconsequential day for bond markets. Yields stayed (mostly) in...
Mon, Apr 9 2018, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly higher to begin the new week, depending on the lender. Even in cases where rates rose, the increase was modest ...
Mon, Apr 9 2018, 9:34 AM
If you're a 10yr Treasury yield in 2018, you don't simply have free reign to enjoy yourself at yields under 2.80%. That's a right and a privilege for...
Fri, Apr 6 2018, 5:16 PM
It would be hard to have any discussion about important technical levels in 10yr Treasury yields recently without 2.79-2.80% coming up early and often...
Fri, Apr 6 2018, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates moved back down to yesterday's levels after a much weaker read on job creation from the Labor Department. In general, weak economic dat...
Fri, Apr 6 2018, 9:34 AM
NFP came out much weaker this morning (102k vs 190k forecast). That's a fairly weak reading, and a bigger "miss" than we normally see. Importantly t...
Thu, Apr 5 2018, 4:42 PM
I'm running out of ways to talk about trade-war-related headlines driving risk-on vs risk-off movement in stocks and bonds. In case you've missed i...
Thu, Apr 5 2018, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today as trade war fears waned for financial markets. There's not a direct connection between trade issues and mo...
Thu, Apr 5 2018, 9:07 AM
The month of March was characterized by 10yr yields repeatedly bouncing at a floor of 2.80% in terms of 10yr yields. At the time, I argued that--whil...
Wed, Apr 4 2018, 4:18 PM
On a few occasions during the past few weeks, I've brought MBS underperformance to your attention. Specifically, MBS and mortgage rates hadn't been...
Wed, Apr 4 2018, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly lower today, depending on the lender. That presents something of an opportunity because underlying bond marke...
Wed, Apr 4 2018, 9:57 AM
Although preliminary news was out yesterday about China potentially announcing retaliatory tariffs on the US, that announcement was officially made ov...
Tue, Apr 3 2018, 4:18 PM
Granted, it's an on-again, off-again relationship between stock prices and rates, but it's been "on" for the past few days. Today was no exception....
Tue, Apr 3 2018, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, on average, even though underlying bond markets suggested a move higher. We talked about the stock/bond relatio...
Tue, Apr 3 2018, 9:05 AM
Yesterday's recap focused on the on-again, off-again relationship between stocks and bonds. Specifically, bonds don't always follow stocks or vice ve...
Mon, Apr 2 2018, 5:20 PM
One of my favorite recurring observations about financial markets is that the classic concept of "stocks vs bonds" doesn't always work. That's the on...
Mon, Apr 2 2018, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today as underlying bond markets generally followed a much bigger move in stocks. It's a common misconception that stocks a...
Mon, Apr 2 2018, 9:20 AM
Last week saw a potentially significant development for bond markets with the break below key technical levels in 10yr yields and the yield curve. Fo...
Thu, Mar 29 2018, 2:46 PM
Bond markets closed early today and will be fully closed tomorrow for the Good Friday holiday. It was also "month-end," which can bring in additional...
Thu, Mar 29 2018, 2:28 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, although a few lenders offered slight improvements. This stands in contrast to the noticeable improveme...
Thu, Mar 29 2018, 8:55 AM
10yr yields had 3 big bounces at 2.80% in March, making it the only obvious candidate for the lower boundary of the recently sideways range. It was f...
Wed, Mar 28 2018, 5:13 PM
US bond markets improved in the overnight session as European markets drove yields lower around 3am. US 10yr yields fell below 2.75% as a result, an...
Wed, Mar 28 2018, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly lower today, keeping/bringing them in line with the lowest levels in roughly 2 weeks (depending on the lender...
Wed, Mar 28 2018, 9:18 AM
Without a discussion on important technical levels and without looking at one of several pieces of technical analysis, yesterday looks like any other ...
Tue, Mar 27 2018, 5:23 PM
I'm not sure I've heard anyone genuinely say "oh my!" by way of exclamatory response in quite a while. But the odds increased today with a rather sur...
Tue, Mar 27 2018, 4:51 PM
As of yesterday, it looked like mortgage rates would be more interested in staying in a narrow, sideways range for the holiday-shortened Spring Break/...
Tue, Mar 27 2018, 9:02 AM
Whether we're looking at shorter-term or longer-term charts, we're left with the sense that bonds aren't very interested in following any other market...
Mon, Mar 26 2018, 5:16 PM
With last Thursday's rally, bonds had a chance to challenge the prevailing sideways range (from 2.80-2.91 in 10yr yields). Friday's weakness was set ...
Mon, Mar 26 2018, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates moved sideways to slightly higher today, keeping them in an exceptionally narrow range that's persisted for the entire month of March. ...
Mon, Mar 26 2018, 9:12 AM
If bond yields can manage to hold inside their recent range through the end of this week, they'll have gone an entire month with the lowest volatility...
Fri, Mar 23 2018, 5:25 PM
Bonds showed both their hands early today. The first was seen in the overnight session when decent overseas buying demand pushed yields below the in...
Fri, Mar 23 2018, 4:57 PM
Mortgage rates were just barely higher in many cases today, although underlying bond markets recovered enough ground by the afternoon to suggest Monda...
Fri, Mar 23 2018, 8:31 AM
The past 2 days represented a nice little run for bonds, but unfortunately it may end up looking like one of those fool's errands that was destined ...
Thu, Mar 22 2018, 5:38 PM
Today was simple and straightforward in one sense. Stocks and bond yields (rates) were both moving lower, and that's something the two have been kn...
Thu, Mar 22 2018, 5:04 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower today on a combination of global reaction to yesterday's Fed Announcement and apprehension over new tariffs on China. T...
Thu, Mar 22 2018, 9:15 AM
One of my favorite things to do is to push back on news media bandwagons with indignation and incredulity. Today provides a great opportunity for tha...
Wed, Mar 21 2018, 6:08 PM
If you're not up to speed on a few of the funniest scenes from Monty Python and The Holy Grail, this analogy is going to be tough to follow. In the i...
Wed, Mar 21 2018, 5:22 PM
Mortgage rates rose to new 4-year highs this morning as lenders took a defensive stance ahead of the afternoon's Fed Announcement. The caution proved ...
Wed, Mar 21 2018, 2:04 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December January indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen an...
Wed, Mar 21 2018, 9:28 AM
This is a quick guide designed to help you approach this afternoon's Fed events in a logical and useful way.
What's Happening Today and When?
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Tue, Mar 20 2018, 5:04 PM
Imagine you manage a baseball team. Let's say it's little league , because what follows probably wouldn't happen in the bigs. You're working with y...
Tue, Mar 20 2018, 3:30 PM
Mortgage rates rose to the highest levels in more than a week today, but that's the most dramatic way to put it. In terms of outright movement, today ...
Tue, Mar 20 2018, 9:50 AM
While there have been a few pockets of decent gains in the past week (Thursday afternoon and yesterday morning), the general trend has been toward wea...
Mon, Mar 19 2018, 4:44 PM
Bonds entered the domestic session feeling a bit down on their luck. There was some general weakness early in the overnight session, but just before ...
Mon, Mar 19 2018, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates have been on a tear recently , moving sideways with reckless abandon. Since the middle of February, the "effective rate" (based on actu...
Mon, Mar 19 2018, 9:15 AM
If it weren't for the Fed Announcement on Wednesday, this would look like a prime vacation week for market participants as there is a distinct lack ...
Fri, Mar 16 2018, 5:36 PM
There were quite a few economic reports on tap today, and that made for some entertaining market watching! Reason being, every time a report came out...
Fri, Mar 16 2018, 5:12 PM
Mortgage rates rose modestly today, but many lenders were essentially unchanged compared to yesterday's latest offerings. Moreover, rates ended the we...
Fri, Mar 16 2018, 9:45 AM
I was pretty happy to have made it through yesterday without seeing or writing any "Ides of March" headlines. I can't ever quite remember what the wo...
