Wed, Sep 21 2022, 6:01 PM
Stunningly Sideways After an Important Fed Day
By the time the Fed announcement rolled around, the financ...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators of point to modest growth in spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, job production. Job gains have been robust in...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 12:42 PM
Seven straight months of slowing sales has reduced existing home transactions by nearly 20 percent from the same point in 2021. The National Associat...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 9:59 AM
The following is a copy and paste from a previous piece that always bears repeating on Fed day. If you've seen it before, there's nothing new here. ...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 9:42 AM
It’s Fed decision day today and another 75-basis point rate hike is expected. Mortgage rates have surged to 14-year highs, deterring both buyers and b...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 9:29 AM
Mortgage application activity increased for the first time in six weeks during the period ended September 16 although the prior week had been shortene...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 8:57 AM
There continue to be headlines regarding some sort of "mobilization" of troops with the most recent seeing Putin claim that the West is threatening Ru...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 4:02 PM
Since last week's inflation data, mortgage rates have pushed up to new 14 year highs every single day--not even "almost" every day, but every last one...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 3:45 PM
Here's What Matters on Fed Day
Bonds sold off some more today because why not?! 10yr yields were more invol...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 10:23 AM
The overnight session was frustrating exercise in "position-squaring," which is a term we often use as a sort of generic, hifalutin way of saying "tha...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 10:19 AM
One issue currently facing the mortgage industry is a lack of supply, or as rapper Cardi B said over the weekend in her analysis of high home prices a...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 10:15 AM
Residential construction numbers were mixed in August. Home builders apparently worked on drawing down their backlogs of permits rather than seeking ...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 5:29 PM
Mortgage rates had another moderately bad day to start the new week. The unfortunate thing about moderately bad days that occur when rates were alrea...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 4:22 PM
Bond Buyers on Strike Until They Hear From The Fed
There were a few way the run up to this week's Fed announ...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 1:32 PM
The National Association of Home Builder’s (NAHB’s) index measuring the confidence of builders in the new home market has fallen for the ninth straigh...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 11:20 AM
It's an understatement to say that "all eyes are on the Fed" this Wednesday as the committee meets to decide whether to hike 75 vs 100bps, among other...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 10:02 AM
In the words of former Vice President Dan Quayle, “We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur.” Around the world, soaring borrowi...
Fri, Sep 16 2022, 5:08 PM
Traders Hit Snooze Button, With Next Alarm Set For Fed Day
Nothing really happened in the bond market today ...
Fri, Sep 16 2022, 5:07 PM
By this time next week, we will have heard from the Fed as they announce the next rate hike on September 21st. It will be big too. Just how big is a...
Fri, Sep 16 2022, 11:39 AM
Whereas an investor knows the rate of return on something like a Treasury note, MBS require a bit of guesswork because borrowers can opt to sell or re...
Fri, Sep 16 2022, 10:10 AM
With most mortgage related headlines focused on rates being back above 6 percent for the first time since 2008, it makes sense that 67 percent of mill...
Thu, Sep 15 2022, 4:49 PM
The internet, TV, and even public radio stations were buzzing all day with groundbreaking news on mortgage rates. Apparently, for the first time in 1...
Thu, Sep 15 2022, 4:25 PM
Have Bonds Lost Enough Ground to Imply Some Relief?
Rates are as high as they've been in 14 years and have m...
Thu, Sep 15 2022, 11:29 AM
Bonds traded an almost perfectly straight, gradually-sloped line toward higher yields overnight and were even able to mostly ignore moderate volatilit...
Thu, Sep 15 2022, 9:59 AM
It really is the hope that kills you. That phrase, which was coined by English football fans and is probably more well known in America among Ted Lass...
Wed, Sep 14 2022, 5:25 PM
The mortgage market is no stranger to excitement in 2022. Unfortunately, it hasn't been the good kind of excitement. That's especially true of the p...
Wed, Sep 14 2022, 4:53 PM
Slow and Sideways as Markets Wait For Bigger News
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory but ral...
Wed, Sep 14 2022, 11:47 AM
While it continues to be the case that upcoming economic data and next week's Fed announcement are more than capable of taking bonds into new high yie...
Wed, Sep 14 2022, 10:31 AM
With inflation likely causing the Fed to keep hiking rates aggressively (more on that in the Capital Markets section at the bottom), many people in ou...
Wed, Sep 14 2022, 10:26 AM
Only a slight uptick in purchase mortgage applications kept all last week’s volume indicators from falling for the fifth straight time. The Mortgage B...
Tue, Sep 13 2022, 3:31 PM
Unfortunate, But Logical Reaction to Much Hotter Core Inflation
Markets had been waiting on today's CPI repo...
Tue, Sep 13 2022, 3:29 PM
Mortgage rates were already in the vicinity of the highest levels in 14 years. With large day-to-day swings being extremely common these days, we wer...
Tue, Sep 13 2022, 1:08 PM
Mortgage credit access tightened again in August, a trend that has been nearly continuous since the onset of the pandemic more than two years ago. The...
Tue, Sep 13 2022, 9:57 AM
We knew there was a lot riding on today's CPI data and that it was highly likely to inspire a big move higher or lower for bonds if it came in much hi...
Tue, Sep 13 2022, 9:54 AM
With the Fed set to end its MBS purchases tomorrow, removing free money from the MBS market, where do you think home affordability will go from here? ...
Mon, Sep 12 2022, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today, but only after moving slightly lower earlier this morning. "Higher" and "lower" are more informative if...
Mon, Sep 12 2022, 3:53 PM
Potentially Decent Day Turns Sour After 10yr Treasury Auction
The first day of the new week began innocently...
Mon, Sep 12 2022, 10:45 AM
Does evolution lead to success? Major League Baseball is banking that instituting a pitch clock and banning defensive shifts starting next year will l...
Mon, Sep 12 2022, 10:02 AM
There are times when a particular event garners too much attention as the most important consideration for bond market momentum. If any event were to...
Fri, Sep 9 2022, 8:12 PM
It's certainly already been an interesting year for financial markets--especially for housing and interest rates. But most of what's happened over the...
Fri, Sep 9 2022, 8:12 PM
Fairly Inconsequential Friday Ahead of a Very Consequential Week Ahead
Despite feeling like a bumpy ride at times, the bond market actually didn...
Fri, Sep 9 2022, 12:21 PM
Bonds had a respectable overnight session with steady gains seen mostly during European hours. Then in the early part of the domestic session, it was...
Fri, Sep 9 2022, 9:48 AM
Whether it is independent mortgage banks or companies with the largest market caps in the world, new products are being developed and rolled out to he...
Thu, Sep 8 2022, 5:15 PM
It was an interesting day for mortgage rates due to the timing of movement in the underlying bond market. Bond prices/yields are the primary ingredie...
Thu, Sep 8 2022, 4:43 PM
Bonds Close Weaker After Early Volatility and Late-Day Illiquidity
As has been the case for so many afternoo...
Thu, Sep 8 2022, 11:36 AM
Fairly simple morning so far: the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked its policy rate by the expected 75bps. There wasn't much of a reaction to that. ...
Thu, Sep 8 2022, 9:57 AM
California is currently going through a heat wave (Sacramento set a temperature record on Tuesday at 116°), taxing the state's power grid as energy de...
Wed, Sep 7 2022, 5:32 PM
Mortgage rates spiked quickly to open the holiday-shortened week with the average 30yr fixed rate coming very close to the 14-year high seen on June 1...
Wed, Sep 7 2022, 4:49 PM
Nice Push Back Against Tuesday's Weakness. ECB On Deck
Tuesday was brutal and the only real explanation for...
Wed, Sep 7 2022, 11:56 AM
Corporate bond issuance is one of those slightly esoteric concepts to the average rate watcher and usually a completely foreign concept to the average...
