Tue, Aug 9 2022, 10:46 AM
Singer/actress Olivia Newton John AND author David McCullough, both dying to start the week? (I just finished “Mornings on Horseback.”) After I die, I...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 4:13 PM
Bonds Remain Resilient Despite Supply-Related Headwinds
Supply and Demand 101 tells us that higher supply me...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 3:45 PM
It will be a few weeks before we get the next installment of the bellwether home price indices (Case Shiller and FHFA), but today's Mortgage Monitor f...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 10:21 AM
How much would you pay for a company responsible for a funny video? How ‘bout $1.7 billion bones? Amazon, catching the eye of the FTC, has made an off...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 9:41 AM
Although Friday's post-payrolls sell-off was unpleasant for the bond market in the context of a single trading day, it was arguably a resilient showin...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 6:55 PM
The big monthly jobs report from the Labor Department (officially "The Employment Situation) is one of the most reliable sources of volatility for int...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 3:57 PM
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook
Between Wednesday's ISM Services data and Friday's jobs report, the ...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 1:29 PM
This morning's jobs report showed payroll creation at 528k for July compared to a median forecast of 250k and a previous reading of 398k. Perhaps equ...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 10:48 AM
Please answer the short questionnaire at the end of the Commentary. Okay, just kidding. I have grown to really dislike a survey request after I stay a...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 4:31 PM
Refreshingly Resilient Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds began the day with a slight boost from Europe's reaction t...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 12:26 PM
This morning's announcement from the Bank of England (BOE) led to a bond rally that helped 10yr yields hit 2.656% and MBS gain more than an eighth of ...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 11:01 AM
Regular readers are all too familiar with my fairly regular habit of explaining discrepancies between reality and the typical mortgage rate headlines ...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 10:43 AM
“Senility has been a smooth transition for me.” So quipped an attendee here at the Michigan Mortgage Lenders Association conference in Grand Rapids. T...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 3:16 PM
Surprisingly Resilient After Stronger ISM Data
Wednesday's key data point was the ISM Non-Manufacturing inde...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 2:10 PM
We've devoted lots of time and space recently to discussing the uncommon mortgage rate environment recently. The abbreviated thesis can be reduced to...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 11:11 AM
As rumors of correspondent, wholesale, and retail company cutbacks or closings continue to bounce around our biz, how about this non-mortgage tidbit. ...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 10:49 AM
Written before today's ISM data: As of Monday afternoon, 10yr yields had spent 3 days breaking below a floor that had been intact for more than 3 mon...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 9:02 AM
Mortgage application activity rose last week, reversing a series of declines that started in late June. The increase was modest; the Mortgage Bankers ...
Tue, Aug 2 2022, 4:53 PM
Mortgage rates leapt higher at a record pace today--a statement that sounds a bit scarier than it really is by the time we consider the context. The ...
Tue, Aug 2 2022, 4:13 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Nasty Sell-Off?
After a stretch of 3 days where bonds could seemingly do no wrong...
Tue, Aug 2 2022, 1:46 PM
While annual price increases are still wildly aggressive, monthly gains indicate that the brakes may be on. CoreLogic says nationwide, home prices wer...
Tue, Aug 2 2022, 11:16 AM
No one wants to be Chicken Little when bonds are in the midst of a nice rally, but there's been no change to the recent thesis: Rates likely peaked in...
Tue, Aug 2 2022, 11:14 AM
“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts?” Lenders, and their underwriters, work with income, value...
Mon, Aug 1 2022, 4:10 PM
August Starts Strong Thanks to Weaker Econ Data
During the Fed's press conference last week, Powell reiterat...
Mon, Aug 1 2022, 11:02 AM
After several attempts to break through the low 2.7s in the past 4 months, 10yr yields finally made it into the 2.6s last Thursday and managed to hold...
Mon, Aug 1 2022, 10:16 AM
Both basketball player Bill Russell and Nichelle Nichols, Lt. Uhura on Star Trek,” passing away!? Meanwhile, today I head to Chicago, the #1 city for ...
Fri, Jul 29 2022, 6:09 PM
Fri, Jul 29 2022, 6:03 PM
Modest Gains, But Huge Moves in Rate Sheets
By the end of the week, the power of MBS coupon stack compressio...
Fri, Jul 29 2022, 10:37 AM
Both the June PCE inflation data and the Employment Cost Index came in hotter than expected this morning. Bonds certainly thought about selling in re...
Fri, Jul 29 2022, 10:16 AM
It’s a zany world we live in, and forecasts and predictions mean little (as seen by interest rates this week). Where should we start? Rumors of mortga...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 5:23 PM
Mortgage rates have been all over the map recently, both in terms of their movement and in their variation between lenders. It's not altogether uncom...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 3:54 PM
Big Rally After Big GDP Miss
We don't often think much of GDP as a major consideration for the bond market, ...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 12:23 PM
Feel free to debate recession vs no recession amongst yourselves. The economy is more complex than a single word, but today's GDP number says the eco...
Thu, Jul 28 2022, 11:10 AM
My cat Myrtle has some publicity once in a while, although she doesn’t want people knowing she can only hear out of one ear. Freddie Mac had some publ...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 5:59 PM
The Federal Reserve concluded one of its 8 regularly scheduled meetings in 2022 today. As expected, they announced a rate hike of 0.75%. But if you s...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 4:56 PM
MBS Outperform After Powell Discusses The Fed's Outlook
The Fed stuck closely to the script in today's annou...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 2:01 PM
Overall economic activity appears to Recent indicators of spending and production have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job softe...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 1:47 PM
Pending home sales broke out of a seven-month slump in May, gaining 0.7 percent. If this were baseball, we might now call it a “balk.” The National As...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 12:36 PM
A few weeks ago, expectations ramped up for the Fed to hike rates by 100bps at the conclusion of today's meeting. That sentiment lasted only a few da...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 12:01 PM
“Common sense is not a gift. It's a punishment because you have to deal with everyone who doesn't have it.” Common sense tells us that what goes up, m...
Wed, Jul 27 2022, 8:55 AM
The number of applications for residential mortgages retreated for the fourth consecutive period during the week ended July 22 according to the Weekly...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 4:23 PM
Some quick housekeeping before we dig into the headline: mortgage rates are slightly higher so far this week. The increases were in place on Monday. ...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 3:56 PM
Leading-Off And Pulling-Back Ahead of Fed
Bonds began the day in stronger territory thanks to another overni...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 12:42 PM
The pace of home price increases slowed slightly from April to May, but the change in each of the three S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices and the Fed...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 11:33 AM
New home sales fell again in June, more than wiping out the increase posted for May. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban De...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 10:55 AM
July has been a month with a decidedly European flair for the US bond market. Sure, there's been plenty of inspiration from domestic inflation data a...
Tue, Jul 26 2022, 10:37 AM
What in blazes?! The Choco Taco has met its demise?! Food is something we all have in common. Last week’s, “Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit. ...
Mon, Jul 25 2022, 4:17 PM
Slow Start With Some Resilience After AM Weakness
Volume was "summertime low," which is par for the course o...
Mon, Jul 25 2022, 10:52 AM
Bonds rallied fairly sharply at the end of last week, largely in response to weaker economic data at home and abroad. In Friday's recap, we discussed...
Mon, Jul 25 2022, 10:08 AM
Here at the California MBA’s Western Secondary in Orange County, besides talk of Utah’s Pie and Beer Day yesterday, or maybe it is Pioneer Day, most o...
