Thu, Aug 18 2022, 4:36 PM
It was a very boring day for mortgage rates. There was no meaningful change versus yesterday's latest levels and there were almost no instances of mi...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 4:02 PM
Consolidation Continues as Yields Avoid Both Floors and Ceilings
Whereas 10yr yields were willing to tempora...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 3:16 PM
Homes are still selling in record time, but affordability and low inventories are driving sales lower. The National Association of Realtor® (NAR) says...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 11:53 AM
The 2.91% technical level in 10yr yields held firm as a ceiling overnight and domestic traders began pushing a lower-yield agenda in the 7am hour. At...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 10:45 AM
Today is World Breast Cancer Research Day, a global recognition of the life-changing research (past, present, and future) to end breast cancer. That w...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 4:34 PM
Citing "surprising reasons" in a headline is only a few steps above "one weird trick" on the click-bait scale, but in today's case, it's warranted. ...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 4:19 PM
UK Inflation Data Steals Show From Domestic Market Movers
Today's Retail Sales report and Fed Minutes were s...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 11:03 AM
This morning's Retail Sales data is already out and it was close enough to forecast to avoid having a big impact on bonds. Unfortunately, overnight t...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 10:09 AM
In Florida there are approximately 3,000 lakes, not enough to make it onto the leader board of states with the most named lakes (Minnesota, Wisconsin,...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 8:57 AM
Mortgage application volume declined again last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 4:22 PM
Saying "ahead of Fed Minutes" in a headline about rates is a fairly cheap trick for a few reasons, or at least it can be. In today's case, it probabl...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 3:57 PM
Inconsequentially Weaker and Increasingly Range-Bound
The word "range" appears in both the opening and closi...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 12:10 PM
Residential construction numbers fell again in July, giving credence to Monday’s National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB’s) report detailing a ne...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 10:56 AM
Tuesday is getting off to a similar start to Monday when it comes to the level of movement, but this time around, it's in the opposite direction. Dep...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 10:03 AM
“Common sense is not a gift. It's a punishment because you have to deal with everyone who doesn't have it.” This is a tough market, and common sense u...
Mon, Aug 15 2022, 5:11 PM
After rising above 6% in June and falling briefly below 5% by August 1st, mortgage rates have been calming down and staying slightly flatter in the bi...
Mon, Aug 15 2022, 5:01 PM
Super Sideways Summertime Monday
Oddly enough, we find ourselves more likely to be discussing summertime tra...
Mon, Aug 15 2022, 10:51 AM
What a difference 4 months make! In April, the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) recorded a Housing Market Index (aka "builder confidence")...
Mon, Aug 15 2022, 10:43 AM
Florida is the source of a sizeable percentage of home loans and fine lenders, as well as plenty of “Florida Man” stories. (Don’t read if easily offen...
Mon, Aug 15 2022, 10:07 AM
The previous week ended with bonds on the run and yields threatening to break up and over the 2.85% technical level. That breakout was somewhat incon...
Fri, Aug 12 2022, 5:28 PM
Stable and Sideways Now That Rates Are Back in The Range
The past two days had seen more volatility in rates...
Fri, Aug 12 2022, 5:05 PM
Fri, Aug 12 2022, 11:45 AM
Summertime trading is detectably different from the rest of the year. Volume and liquidity are a bit lighter. Counterintuitive moves are more common...
Fri, Aug 12 2022, 10:43 AM
Loan officers who’d like to learn a thing or two about the current prospecting environment are invited to listen in today at 2PM CT/noon PT as Steve R...
Thu, Aug 11 2022, 5:56 PM
When it comes to mortgage rates, Thursdays frequently lend themselves to a discussion about fact versus fiction (or "delayed fact" as it may be) in ne...
Thu, Aug 11 2022, 5:21 PM
Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling
Let's refresh our memories regarding 2022's bond trading...
Thu, Aug 11 2022, 12:57 PM
Up is down, old is new, green is red, etc. Here we are with a second straight day with inflation data coming in significantly lower than forecast and...
Thu, Aug 11 2022, 10:33 AM
We began 2022 thinking that this might be the “Year of Non-QM.” The product certainly has its advantages for some borrowers, and lenders & investors. ...
Wed, Aug 10 2022, 5:37 PM
First thing's first: we deal in extremely granular terms when it comes to mortgage rate movement here. If you're just looking for an idea of how toda...
Wed, Aug 10 2022, 5:02 PM
How In The World Did Bonds Lose Ground After a Big Drop in Inflation?
This morning's hotly anticipated CPI d...
Wed, Aug 10 2022, 12:24 PM
Reliably predicting the future in terms of directional market movement is tricky if not wholly impossible, but predicting higher odds of volatility is...
Wed, Aug 10 2022, 10:40 AM
Big and small, they aren’t the first and won’t be the last. Residential lenders everywhere are ruminating on Notarize laying off 75 percent of its leg...
Wed, Aug 10 2022, 9:01 AM
Mortgage applications rose slightly for the second week, driven by an increase in refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market ...
Tue, Aug 9 2022, 5:03 PM
Mortgage rates had a bad day last Friday, rising at a very fast pace and ultimately making it almost all the way back to the previous week's highs. T...
Tue, Aug 9 2022, 4:24 PM
Tuesday Was Tame, But Wednesday Probably Won't Be
Tuesday's trading session was boring, with rates hitting d...
Tue, Aug 9 2022, 11:16 AM
Last week offered up decent bookends for a narrow, short-term range. A series of downbeat economic reports set the low yields last Monday. Then Fed ...
Tue, Aug 9 2022, 10:46 AM
Singer/actress Olivia Newton John AND author David McCullough, both dying to start the week? (I just finished “Mornings on Horseback.”) After I die, I...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 4:13 PM
Bonds Remain Resilient Despite Supply-Related Headwinds
Supply and Demand 101 tells us that higher supply me...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 3:45 PM
It will be a few weeks before we get the next installment of the bellwether home price indices (Case Shiller and FHFA), but today's Mortgage Monitor f...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 10:21 AM
How much would you pay for a company responsible for a funny video? How ‘bout $1.7 billion bones? Amazon, catching the eye of the FTC, has made an off...
Mon, Aug 8 2022, 9:41 AM
Although Friday's post-payrolls sell-off was unpleasant for the bond market in the context of a single trading day, it was arguably a resilient showin...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 6:55 PM
The big monthly jobs report from the Labor Department (officially "The Employment Situation) is one of the most reliable sources of volatility for int...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 3:57 PM
Strong Data Redefining The Rate Outlook
Between Wednesday's ISM Services data and Friday's jobs report, the ...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 1:29 PM
This morning's jobs report showed payroll creation at 528k for July compared to a median forecast of 250k and a previous reading of 398k. Perhaps equ...
Fri, Aug 5 2022, 10:48 AM
Please answer the short questionnaire at the end of the Commentary. Okay, just kidding. I have grown to really dislike a survey request after I stay a...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 4:31 PM
Refreshingly Resilient Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds began the day with a slight boost from Europe's reaction t...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 12:26 PM
This morning's announcement from the Bank of England (BOE) led to a bond rally that helped 10yr yields hit 2.656% and MBS gain more than an eighth of ...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 11:01 AM
Regular readers are all too familiar with my fairly regular habit of explaining discrepancies between reality and the typical mortgage rate headlines ...
Thu, Aug 4 2022, 10:43 AM
“Senility has been a smooth transition for me.” So quipped an attendee here at the Michigan Mortgage Lenders Association conference in Grand Rapids. T...
Wed, Aug 3 2022, 3:16 PM
Surprisingly Resilient After Stronger ISM Data
Wednesday's key data point was the ISM Non-Manufacturing inde...
