Mon, Mar 20 2017, 7:14 PM
Much like Friday, today was uneventful and moderately positive for bond markets. At some point, we have to consider the combined effects of these sor...
Fri, Mar 17 2017, 8:53 AM
Happy St. Patrick's Day.
Now that you're thinking about a country in Europe, let's talk about European bonds for a moment. US and European bonds...
Fri, Mar 17 2017, 5:28 PM
If wearing some green is all it takes, bonds would have escaped today pinch-free. Treasuries and MBS began the day with just a token amount of green ...
Thu, Mar 16 2017, 8:29 AM
After the overnight session led bonds to open in modestly weaker territory, we're left with the sense that further gains aren't necessarily a given. ...
Thu, Mar 16 2017, 5:47 PM
The big takeaway from yesterday's Fed reaction was that the rally was finite--not motivated by a new development, but rather by a correction to an o...
Wed, Mar 15 2017, 8:27 AM
If you've caught essentially any post in the last few weeks, there's nothing left to say about today. If, however, this is your first time reading ...
Wed, Mar 15 2017, 6:42 PM
Yesterday's recap said that bonds were dreaming about the Fed's dot plot (the economic projections released with today's Fed announcement). In spite ...
Wed, Mar 15 2017, 2:05 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December February indicates ...
Tue, Mar 14 2017, 8:32 AM
The entire week is clearly focused on Wednesday afternoon's Fed events (chiefly, the Fed' economic projections, which will give us an idea of how th...
Tue, Mar 14 2017, 5:51 PM
We know the Fed will hike tomorrow and we know the "dots" (a reference to the dot-plot the Fed uses to convey it's rate hike expectations) will be the...
Mon, Mar 13 2017, 9:17 AM
In 2011-2012, the notion that the Fed would " never " be able to extricate itself from an endless cycle of quantitative easing was not entirely uncomm...
Mon, Mar 13 2017, 5:37 PM
Bonds got back to their weaker ways after a very brief, shallow correction last Friday. We had increasingly expected that "green day," and were und...
Fri, Mar 10 2017, 8:15 AM
Bonds are right on the edge of the relative abyss. If 10yr yields break much higher today, we'll be operating in territory not seen since early 2014....
Fri, Mar 10 2017, 4:43 PM
ADP provided a cruel gift on Wednesday. It isn't the most trusted advance indicator of the infinitely more important NFP data, but when it beats th...
Thu, Mar 9 2017, 8:33 AM
After confirming a breakout from the "consolidation range" (the converging lines tracing the lower highs and higher lows over the past 3 months) yes...
Thu, Mar 9 2017, 6:34 PM
The title sums it up. Bonds are having a bad time . Fed rate hike expectations started this unpleasant party last week and economic data added to t...
Wed, Mar 8 2017, 8:18 AM
Not that we didn't already know this, but bond markets have been on the back foot ever since last week's rapid shift in Fed rate hike expectations. T...
Wed, Mar 8 2017, 5:42 PM
Over the past 3 days (the white circled area in the chart below), rates have broken out of their post-election consolidation range (the outermost ye...
Tue, Mar 7 2017, 9:06 AM
We've been tracking several iterations of a sideways or consolidative range since the initial post-election sell-off bounced back in mid January. We...
Tue, Mar 7 2017, 5:29 PM
It's not incredibly common for bonds to improve in the week leading up to an almost certain Fed hike. That said, we only have 2 recent examples in th...
Mon, Mar 6 2017, 8:58 AM
Last week saw economic data take a definitive back seat to Fed speeches --particularly Tuesday's comments from NY Fed President Dudley. It wasn't th...
Mon, Mar 6 2017, 5:47 PM
Monday's without significant economic data or overseas geopolitical developments tend to be quite lifeless for bond markets. Today was no exception...
Fri, Mar 3 2017, 8:43 AM
As you're likely aware, rates have been in a very well-behaved consolidation range since mid-November. The trendlines connecting the "lower highs" an...
Fri, Mar 3 2017, 4:34 PM
Economic data was stronger this morning with the best ISM Manufacturing "business activity" reading since 2011. Along with comments from Fed's Powell...
Thu, Mar 2 2017, 8:55 AM
In addition to ISM Non-Manufacturing, tomorrow brings multiple Fed speeches, including Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer in the early afternoon. It's exc...
Thu, Mar 2 2017, 5:25 PM
You couldn't swing a dead cat without hitting a news story about the Snapchat IPO or a friend/colleague asking if you were going to buy some. While i...
Wed, Mar 1 2017, 8:21 AM
There was a lot of build-up for last night's Trump speech. I won't tell you that it didn't turn out to be a market mover, but it wasn't nearly as p...
Wed, Mar 1 2017, 4:39 PM
The past 2 days have been almost exclusively about a rapid adjustment in Fed rate hike expectations (see the chart in the Day Ahead for a visual). ...
Tue, Feb 28 2017, 8:30 AM
Today is the last day of February. 'Month-end' is different than other days for bond markets because it serves as a deadline for money managers to ...
Tue, Feb 28 2017, 6:38 PM
Treasuries and MBS made it almost all the way through the day with very little drama. There were some ups and downs, but by 4pm, trading levels wer...
Mon, Feb 27 2017, 8:31 AM
The past 5 business days of bond market rallies brought yields right to the lower edge of 2017's range . We had been tracking these movements in ter...
Mon, Feb 27 2017, 5:34 PM
Several events helped get investors back in a riskier mood to begin the new week. Overnight reports of the "status quo" candidate polling better in...
Fri, Feb 24 2017, 8:50 AM
Bond markets are looking for their 6th straight victory today. Each of the past 5 days have seen yields end the day lower than they opened. While ...
Fri, Feb 24 2017, 5:33 PM
"For no apparent reason" is a bit of an overstatement. There are several plausible reasons that bonds could be rallying as well as they are at the mo...
Thu, Feb 23 2017, 8:32 AM
Rarely do we see such a well-behaved and long-lasting consolidation trend in bond markets. This refers to a series of higher lows and lower highs. ...
Thu, Feb 23 2017, 4:53 PM
More than any other day in recent memory, today's trend was remarkably narrow for bond markets. That's not to say it was "flat," though. Indeed, the...
Wed, Feb 22 2017, 8:45 AM
Today brings a calendar item that contains the letters "FOMC." That's typically a big deal. While it could also be a big deal today, the "FOMC Minut...
Wed, Feb 22 2017, 5:05 PM
Today's trading session was certainly more interesting than yesterday's--especially if we're counting overnight trading hours. European bond market...
Tue, Feb 21 2017, 8:38 AM
It's another slow week for bond markets in terms of pure "economic data." The only relevant reports are Existing Home Sales (Wed), New Home Sales (...
Tue, Feb 21 2017, 4:56 PM
Bonds came back from their 3-day weekend in weaker territory to start the overnight session. Losses were mild at first, and then became moderate ...
Fri, Feb 17 2017, 8:39 AM
It's a real dud of a day in terms of excitement on the event/econ calendar. There are no significant economic reports and no potentially market-mov...
Fri, Feb 17 2017, 4:17 PM
For all the sturm and drang seen in the middle of the week, trading levels somehow managed to hit today's 3pm close almost perfectly in line with Mo...
Thu, Feb 16 2017, 8:31 AM
Today begins with another glut of economic data at 8:30am, although it's fairly tame compared to yesterday's CPI/Retail Sales duo. Housing Starts are...
Thu, Feb 16 2017, 5:38 PM
As far as bond market rallies go, today's was one of the most mysterious in recent memory. Several conclusions will have to be jumped to in order to ...
Wed, Feb 15 2017, 8:33 AM
Fed Chair Yellen takes the hot-seat at Congress for a 2nd day today, but this time in front of the always-cheerful and relentlessly intelligent folks ...
Wed, Feb 15 2017, 5:19 PM
When it comes to the most simplistic charts of bond market trends, there are two "bad things" that rates could do in the current context. One of the...
Tue, Feb 14 2017, 8:29 AM
A series of "higher lows" and "lower highs" is the defining characteristic of a consolidation pattern . The following chart highlights the current c...
Tue, Feb 14 2017, 5:22 PM
Bond markets (and markets in general) periodically experience an interesting phenomenon whereby traders are determined to make one of two bets followi...
Mon, Feb 13 2017, 8:56 AM
The week ahead sees data and relevant events come out in concentrated gluts, almost exclusively in the middle of the week. Everyone's favorite headli...
Mon, Feb 13 2017, 5:23 PM
With essentially nothing on the calendar today, and quite a lot on the calendar over the next 2 days, it's not too surprising to see bonds continue th...
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