Tue, Apr 17 2018, 10:16 AM
Much of the analysis of the past few days has focused on the downwardly sloped trend channel seen in today's first chart. This can be thought of as t...
Mon, Apr 16 2018, 5:20 PM
Bonds were quite a bit weaker in the overnight session. According to the average media report, this was in response to Syria-related developments. T...
Mon, Apr 16 2018, 10:10 AM
Another week, another change to savor the scent of red herring in the air. Have you ever smelled a herring--let alone a red one? They're oily little...
Fri, Apr 13 2018, 8:33 PM
Bonds were technically stronger today. There is green on the screen right now for everything but 2yr Treasuries. It's not huge, but at least it's ...
Fri, Apr 13 2018, 9:56 AM
I started using some more serious words to talk about bond market weakness yesterday, but I'll make them simple and keep the assessment short this mor...
Thu, Apr 12 2018, 7:49 PM
At first glance, today was all about a de-escalation of yesterday's Syria rhetoric from Trump (re: "missiles"). Given that we were able to credit yes...
Thu, Apr 12 2018, 9:32 AM
On a week where the calendar of events had every right to push bond yields more decisively away from their most important recent technical level (2.79...
Wed, Apr 11 2018, 6:37 PM
Bonds were set to begin the day in fairly unchanged territory when Trump tweeted about launching missiles at Syria and forcing Russia to try to shoot ...
Wed, Apr 11 2018, 8:30 AM
Bonds were flat yet again in the overnight session, but began to improve after Trump tweeted "get ready Russia," missiles "will be coming" in respon...
Tue, Apr 10 2018, 6:17 PM
For bonds (and almost for S&P futures as well), today was spent in roughly the same range as yesterday and well-within the range boundaries set by Fri...
Tue, Apr 10 2018, 9:19 AM
Although today's 8:30am data has the trigger phrase "price index," it's not the price index you're looking for. That will come tomorrow in the form o...
Mon, Apr 9 2018, 5:04 PM
Without any major events or data on the econ calendar, it was a calm and relatively inconsequential day for bond markets. Yields stayed (mostly) in...
Mon, Apr 9 2018, 9:34 AM
If you're a 10yr Treasury yield in 2018, you don't simply have free reign to enjoy yourself at yields under 2.80%. That's a right and a privilege for...
Fri, Apr 6 2018, 5:16 PM
It would be hard to have any discussion about important technical levels in 10yr Treasury yields recently without 2.79-2.80% coming up early and often...
Fri, Apr 6 2018, 9:34 AM
NFP came out much weaker this morning (102k vs 190k forecast). That's a fairly weak reading, and a bigger "miss" than we normally see. Importantly t...
Thu, Apr 5 2018, 4:42 PM
I'm running out of ways to talk about trade-war-related headlines driving risk-on vs risk-off movement in stocks and bonds. In case you've missed i...
Thu, Apr 5 2018, 9:07 AM
The month of March was characterized by 10yr yields repeatedly bouncing at a floor of 2.80% in terms of 10yr yields. At the time, I argued that--whil...
Wed, Apr 4 2018, 4:18 PM
On a few occasions during the past few weeks, I've brought MBS underperformance to your attention. Specifically, MBS and mortgage rates hadn't been...
Wed, Apr 4 2018, 9:57 AM
Although preliminary news was out yesterday about China potentially announcing retaliatory tariffs on the US, that announcement was officially made ov...
Tue, Apr 3 2018, 4:18 PM
Granted, it's an on-again, off-again relationship between stock prices and rates, but it's been "on" for the past few days. Today was no exception....
Tue, Apr 3 2018, 9:05 AM
Yesterday's recap focused on the on-again, off-again relationship between stocks and bonds. Specifically, bonds don't always follow stocks or vice ve...
Mon, Apr 2 2018, 5:20 PM
One of my favorite recurring observations about financial markets is that the classic concept of "stocks vs bonds" doesn't always work. That's the on...
Mon, Apr 2 2018, 9:20 AM
Last week saw a potentially significant development for bond markets with the break below key technical levels in 10yr yields and the yield curve. Fo...
Thu, Mar 29 2018, 2:46 PM
Bond markets closed early today and will be fully closed tomorrow for the Good Friday holiday. It was also "month-end," which can bring in additional...
Thu, Mar 29 2018, 8:55 AM
10yr yields had 3 big bounces at 2.80% in March, making it the only obvious candidate for the lower boundary of the recently sideways range. It was f...
Wed, Mar 28 2018, 5:13 PM
US bond markets improved in the overnight session as European markets drove yields lower around 3am. US 10yr yields fell below 2.75% as a result, an...
Wed, Mar 28 2018, 9:18 AM
Without a discussion on important technical levels and without looking at one of several pieces of technical analysis, yesterday looks like any other ...
Tue, Mar 27 2018, 5:23 PM
I'm not sure I've heard anyone genuinely say "oh my!" by way of exclamatory response in quite a while. But the odds increased today with a rather sur...
Tue, Mar 27 2018, 9:02 AM
Whether we're looking at shorter-term or longer-term charts, we're left with the sense that bonds aren't very interested in following any other market...
Mon, Mar 26 2018, 5:16 PM
With last Thursday's rally, bonds had a chance to challenge the prevailing sideways range (from 2.80-2.91 in 10yr yields). Friday's weakness was set ...
Mon, Mar 26 2018, 9:12 AM
If bond yields can manage to hold inside their recent range through the end of this week, they'll have gone an entire month with the lowest volatility...
Fri, Mar 23 2018, 5:25 PM
Bonds showed both their hands early today. The first was seen in the overnight session when decent overseas buying demand pushed yields below the in...
Fri, Mar 23 2018, 8:31 AM
The past 2 days represented a nice little run for bonds, but unfortunately it may end up looking like one of those fool's errands that was destined ...
Thu, Mar 22 2018, 5:38 PM
Today was simple and straightforward in one sense. Stocks and bond yields (rates) were both moving lower, and that's something the two have been kn...
Thu, Mar 22 2018, 9:15 AM
One of my favorite things to do is to push back on news media bandwagons with indignation and incredulity. Today provides a great opportunity for tha...
Wed, Mar 21 2018, 6:08 PM
If you're not up to speed on a few of the funniest scenes from Monty Python and The Holy Grail, this analogy is going to be tough to follow. In the i...
Wed, Mar 21 2018, 2:04 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December January indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen an...
Wed, Mar 21 2018, 9:28 AM
This is a quick guide designed to help you approach this afternoon's Fed events in a logical and useful way.
What's Happening Today and When?
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Tue, Mar 20 2018, 5:04 PM
Imagine you manage a baseball team. Let's say it's little league , because what follows probably wouldn't happen in the bigs. You're working with y...
Tue, Mar 20 2018, 9:50 AM
While there have been a few pockets of decent gains in the past week (Thursday afternoon and yesterday morning), the general trend has been toward wea...
Mon, Mar 19 2018, 4:44 PM
Bonds entered the domestic session feeling a bit down on their luck. There was some general weakness early in the overnight session, but just before ...
Mon, Mar 19 2018, 9:15 AM
If it weren't for the Fed Announcement on Wednesday, this would look like a prime vacation week for market participants as there is a distinct lack ...
Fri, Mar 16 2018, 5:36 PM
There were quite a few economic reports on tap today, and that made for some entertaining market watching! Reason being, every time a report came out...
Fri, Mar 16 2018, 9:45 AM
I was pretty happy to have made it through yesterday without seeing or writing any "Ides of March" headlines. I can't ever quite remember what the wo...
Thu, Mar 15 2018, 4:42 PM
Today is most easily discussed based on what it wasn't.
Today wasn't a big selling day. That's nice to see-- especially in 2018, and especi...
Thu, Mar 15 2018, 9:41 AM
You may have noticed that, as of February 22nd, bonds haven't been experiencing the same sort of pain that characterized the first month and a half of...
Wed, Mar 14 2018, 4:41 PM
We've seen plenty of instances of bond markets shrugging off clear suggestions in the economic data, but today wasn't one of them! Retail Sales and...
Wed, Mar 14 2018, 9:52 AM
The first month and a half of 2018 was fairly brutal for bond markets. Metaphorically speaking, it was like retreating from their home across a field...
Tue, Mar 13 2018, 4:56 PM
Bond markets moved to their best levels in more than a week on a combination of tame inflation data and Trump's unexpected announcement of Rex Till...
Tue, Mar 13 2018, 8:30 AM
Since at least the middle of 2017, the Consumer Price Index has been in the driver's seat as far as economic data that matters to bonds. This likely ...
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