Yesterday was good for bonds with 10yr yields covering more ground toward lower yields during domestic trading hours than any other day since February. Nonetheless, when faced with an opportunity to break below the 1.62% resistance level, they ran the only play in the playbook (they bounced higher).
To be perfectly fair to the bond market, this type of behavior is pretty normal, even when yields are getting ready to break toward lower levels. To be clear, the pattern we're seeing now doesn't necessarily imply a higher than average likelihood of a breakout. Rather, the point is that 1.62% resistance doesn't have a bearing on what will happen in the future. We'll break lower if we're going to break lower and there's nothing about the bouncy behavior that necessarily suggests otherwise. Consider the past several weeks of 1.62% resistance in the context of FIVE MONTHS of resistance in this historical example.
Today's calendar is light, with no major econ reports on tap. Fed Chair Powell will take part in a Q&A with the Economic Club of Washington at noon ET, but it's hard to imagine what he might say that hasn't already been said on numerous recent occasions. Still, a Fed Chair appearance is always worth the market's attention, even if only to be vigilant about unexpected comments.