Today, 9:46 AM
A recovery toward lower oil prices paved the way for the bond market to recover yesterday morning's weakness and the same theme continued in the overn...
Wed, May 13 2026, 3:38 PM
MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data
There's no question that this morning's PPI data ...
Wed, May 13 2026, 10:21 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is much more volatile and, on average, much less of a market mover than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but occasionall...
Tue, May 12 2026, 4:06 PM
Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions
Because CPI came out slightly higher to...
Tue, May 12 2026, 9:29 AM
This morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall ...
Mon, May 11 2026, 3:50 PM
Over Before it Began
Monday proved to be a boring trading day despite the moderately big sell-off. Yields ac...
Mon, May 11 2026, 11:28 AM
Bonds are starting the day moderately weaker. The reasons are straightforward. Chief among them, Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war,...
Fri, May 8 2026, 3:34 PM
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to p...
Fri, May 8 2026, 9:00 AM
Everyone's been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bo...
Thu, May 7 2026, 3:24 PM
Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines
The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-def...
Thu, May 7 2026, 9:08 AM
Bonds and oil rallied again in the overnight session, though not as swiftly as they did yesterday. News was thinner, but there was still an obvious ca...
Wed, May 6 2026, 4:15 PM
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day
The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to...
Wed, May 6 2026, 8:49 AM
There was one, big, obvious market mover overnight. At 4:50am ET, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a one page memo of unders...
Tue, May 5 2026, 3:20 PM
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Today's headline is somewhat misleading. I...
Tue, May 5 2026, 9:37 AM
After hitting the highest yields in more than a month yesterday, bonds have managed to pick up a few bps. The bulk of the recovery was already in plac...
Mon, May 4 2026, 4:08 PM
Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines
Monday's trading session ended up being as simple as it was unpl...
Mon, May 4 2026, 10:09 AM
The overnight and early domestic trading hours have brought a mix of familiar and unfamiliar patterns. Up until roughly 8:30am, we saw a very familiar...
Fri, May 1 2026, 3:27 PM
Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change
Bonds began the day roughly flat before losing gr...
Fri, May 1 2026, 10:35 AM
Bonds were almost perfectly flat during the overnight session along with oil and stock futures. Morning trading ushered in more volatility as the war-...
Thu, Apr 30 2026, 4:29 PM
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely
Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, b...
Thu, Apr 30 2026, 9:40 AM
From an analytical standpoint, it's hard to offer new and interesting insights when the order of any given day is simply to observe broad war-related ...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 4:42 PM
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
Because today was was a "Fed day" and because ...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 2:00 PM
Available Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the un...
Wed, Apr 29 2026, 9:31 AM
Last night's key news on the war involved reports of Trump telling aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The free flow of oil through Hor...
Tue, Apr 28 2026, 4:15 PM
Modest Gains After Opening Weaker
Tuesday ended up being a uneventful trading session despite 10yr yields hi...
Tue, Apr 28 2026, 10:27 AM
Bonds sold off slowly and steadily overnight, largely tracing a similarly steady rise in oil prices. The latter is most easily attributed to reports t...
Mon, Apr 27 2026, 3:51 PM
Modest Weakness, But Range Persists
Bonds lost ground today, but not for any particular reason. Most importa...
Mon, Apr 27 2026, 9:44 AM
The word of the day is "stalled." You can't get far reading top news stories over the weekend without seeing it in reference to the negotiations that ...
Fri, Apr 24 2026, 4:02 PM
Similar Volatility But in a Friendlier Direction
The bond market saw a roughly identical amount of volatilit...
Fri, Apr 24 2026, 9:18 AM
Markets were largely flat overnight but volatility picked up just after 7am ET after headlines suggested US/Iran negotiations could resume as early as...
Thu, Apr 23 2026, 4:43 PM
Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality
It's not exactly a new problem, but the issue of incorr...
Thu, Apr 23 2026, 9:14 AM
Bonds were almost perfectly flat in the overnight session with yields holding inside a 1.5bp range. Oil prices rose initially, but recovered before th...
Wed, Apr 22 2026, 4:09 PM
Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely
Heading into last night's ceasefire expiration, there was a sense that the...
Wed, Apr 22 2026, 10:11 AM
As a testament to just how confident the market is/was that neither side is overly interested in escalating the Iran war, Tuesday night's ceasefire de...
Tue, Apr 21 2026, 3:49 PM
Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses
Bonds were just a bit weaker this morning after the weekly ADP data. Ju...
Tue, Apr 21 2026, 9:03 AM
Heading into the day, the 8:30am Retail Sales data was the obvious pick among the available economic reports to be a potential market mover. Reality h...
Mon, Apr 20 2026, 4:24 PM
Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend
Bonds/oil/stocks saw a small corrective bou...
Mon, Apr 20 2026, 9:34 AM
Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was re...
Fri, Apr 17 2026, 4:29 PM
AM Gains Mostly Stick Around
Everything interesting about today occurred before 9am ET (several war-related ...
Fri, Apr 17 2026, 9:20 AM
Bonds were modestly and inconsequentially stronger in the overnight session. By 8am, this brought 10yr yields just under 4.30%. Less than an hour lat...
Thu, Apr 16 2026, 4:26 PM
Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start
This morning, more than halfway through the international trading da...
Thu, Apr 16 2026, 9:33 AM
Thursday has thus far been the slowest and most sideways day since February 24th, before the start of the Iran war. A lull in war-related developments...
Wed, Apr 15 2026, 3:59 PM
Very Small Token Pull-Back
Nothing really happened on Wednesday as far as the bond market was concerned. Yie...
Wed, Apr 15 2026, 10:34 AM
Markets have plenty of war-related headlines to digest at any given moment these days. And while some of those headlines have been the biggest market ...
Tue, Apr 14 2026, 4:27 PM
Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower War-Related Optimism
While there were no incredibly memora...
Tue, Apr 14 2026, 10:29 AM
Bonds were fairly flat overnight and haven't moved much so far in the domestic session. More importantly, until 7am, bonds were slightly weaker even a...
Mon, Apr 13 2026, 4:08 PM
Weekend Selling Reverses After Another Round of De-Escalation Headlines
Another day, another chance to sort ...
Mon, Apr 13 2026, 10:22 AM
Heading into the weekend, the big news was that the U.S. and Iran would meet in Pakistan to negotiate a peace deal. But by Sunday morning, the talks h...
Fri, Apr 10 2026, 4:22 PM
Bonds Drift Weaker Despite Lower Oil Prices
Although they still technically made positive progress versus th...
Fri, Apr 10 2026, 9:06 AM
The median forecast for monthly core CPI was 0.28% (0.3 after rounding up for most econ calendars). Today's actual number was 0.196--obviously quite a...
MBS Market Alerts
