Fri, Jul 17 2026, 4:35 PM
Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness
Bonds ended the day roughly unchanged despite this morning's strong...
Fri, Jul 17 2026, 9:35 AM
In a month where bonds have made a visible reconnection with fuel prices thanks to the Iran war resurgence, there have been several notable departures...
Thu, Jul 16 2026, 4:46 PM
Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness
Bonds lost ground modestly today with the ultimate damage bein...
Thu, Jul 16 2026, 11:26 AM
The term "crack spread" is quickly becoming mainstream--especially over the past few weeks. It's more of a concept than a specific metric, but it most...
Wed, Jul 15 2026, 3:43 PM
Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's
Both Tuesday's CPI and Wednesday's PPI came in much ...
Wed, Jul 15 2026, 9:20 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is not normally a huge market mover, but it has its moments of moderate impact. Today is such a moment as PPI did its b...
Tue, Jul 14 2026, 4:42 PM
Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today?
If you missed this morning's commentary, the gist is that i...
Tue, Jul 14 2026, 8:56 AM
The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI w...
Mon, Jul 13 2026, 9:21 AM
Bonds are weaker to start the new week and the catalyst is simple. The U.S. ramped up air strikes in Iran, both in terms of number and distance inland...
Fri, Jul 10 2026, 3:50 PM
Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon
Oil and Treasury yields were almost perfectly correlated for al...
Fri, Jul 10 2026, 10:05 AM
The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest ...
Thu, Jul 9 2026, 4:11 PM
Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch
Bonds had a decent day with MBS up more than a quarter point and 10yr ...
Thu, Jul 9 2026, 9:49 AM
Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is ...
Wed, Jul 8 2026, 3:50 PM
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in mor...
Wed, Jul 8 2026, 9:27 AM
Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. ...
Tue, Jul 7 2026, 3:18 PM
Hormuz Back in The News
Iran has attacked a few cargo ships recently and there are repercussions. The peace ...
Tue, Jul 7 2026, 9:46 AM
From summertime Monday to summertime Tuesday... Yesterday's modest strength is now erased by today's modest weakness. In both cases, the movement is t...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 4:03 PM
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the s...
Mon, Jul 6 2026, 10:19 AM
Bonds weathered the 3-day weekend without issue. We started the day modestly stronger, but have moved back closer to unchanged levels in the first 2 h...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 2:17 PM
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal
Bonds rallied quickly in response to this morning's jobs report ...
Thu, Jul 2 2026, 9:05 AM
Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today's big jobs report (the on...
Wed, Jul 1 2026, 3:46 PM
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
The past 2 days have been rough for the bond mark...
Wed, Jul 1 2026, 9:28 AM
Bonds have added modestly to Tuesday's big quarter-end sell-off (a phenomenon that has nothing to do with the sorts of fundamental developments that d...
Tue, Jun 30 2026, 3:59 PM
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day
We expected volatility would pick up on Tuesday for one reason or another ...
Tue, Jun 30 2026, 9:21 AM
Before looking at trading screens this morning, the first order of business would have been to mention the ramp up in economic calendar activity. Whil...
Mon, Jun 29 2026, 3:25 PM
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here
Monday made it clear that traders are playing by the typical summertime, ...
Mon, Jun 29 2026, 10:24 AM
At the risk of jinxing it, Monday is pretty much already in the back as an uneventful start to a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and f...
Fri, Jun 26 2026, 4:51 PM
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform
Friday ended up offering a boring conclusion to a week that ha...
Fri, Jun 26 2026, 10:01 AM
Q2 has been one of the best quarters for stocks going all the way back to the dot com boom, even after the 4-5% pullback in June. This has created a m...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 3:27 PM
Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory, but not weak enough t...
Thu, Jun 25 2026, 8:59 AM
The PCE price index may be a less timely report than CPI/PPI when it comes to measuring inflation in the U.S., but it's more thorough and has stronger...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 3:52 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing)
Stocks went on a tear in Q2 with ...
Wed, Jun 24 2026, 9:34 AM
Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that's the reason that 10...
Tue, Jun 23 2026, 4:17 PM
Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration
Tuesday may as well have been a holiday. Volumes were among the lowe...
Tue, Jun 23 2026, 9:58 AM
Yesterday's most interesting development was the visible decoupling of bond yields with oil prices. To a lesser extent, one could also lament that mid...
Mon, Jun 22 2026, 4:49 PM
What's Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.?
On the average trading day in the past few months, if oil pr...
Mon, Jun 22 2026, 9:59 AM
European bond yields surged higher on Friday in response to political uncertainty in the U.K., among other things (ongoing global reaction to Fed day ...
Thu, Jun 18 2026, 3:19 PM
Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week
With markets closed for the Juneteenth holida...
Thu, Jun 18 2026, 10:04 AM
Trump officially signed the Iran MOU last night , which helped oil prices and bond yields move a bit lower. Overseas markets also did a decent job dig...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 5:00 PM
Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes
Ironically, one of Warsh's comments in today's press confere...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 9:40 AM
So far today, we've seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn't final and ...
Tue, Jun 16 2026, 4:24 PM
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance
Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and mad...
Tue, Jun 16 2026, 11:55 AM
European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets. Why bring this ...
Mon, Jun 15 2026, 4:15 PM
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.
With both sides signing the peace memo, the market w...
Mon, Jun 15 2026, 10:07 AM
Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for...
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 3:34 PM
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different
Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the not...
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 9:34 AM
Bonds were sideways at first in the overnight session. Then they improved moderately after newswires from Iran's Mehr news agency detailing some speci...
Thu, Jun 11 2026, 4:40 PM
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement
This morning's commentary noted Trump comments regardi...
Thu, Jun 11 2026, 9:44 AM
Bonds were reasonably stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields down roughly 4bps from 4.56 to 4.52. About 8 minutes before the PPI data came...
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