Today, 9:57 AM
Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged ...
Fri, Jun 5 2026, 4:42 PM
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout
If you had to find something reassuring to say abou...
Fri, Jun 5 2026, 10:08 AM
Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job ma...
Thu, Jun 4 2026, 4:12 PM
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage
Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them ...
Thu, Jun 4 2026, 9:14 AM
The following newswire hit about an hour before the open: TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR. Bond yields and oil prices h...
Wed, Jun 3 2026, 3:47 PM
Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility
War headlines struck back in the overnight session. Specifically, ...
Wed, Jun 3 2026, 9:13 AM
Iran launched missiles at several U.S. allies yesterday afternoon and oil prices responded accordingly with a move back up to May 22nd levels. Treasur...
Tue, Jun 2 2026, 4:59 PM
Uncommonly Uneventful Day
No one will accuse us of clickbait titles today, or even clickbait analysis. There...
Tue, Jun 2 2026, 10:49 AM
We saw big ticket econ data move the needle a bit last week and have thus been prepared for this week's big ticket reports to have a similar chance to...
Mon, Jun 1 2026, 3:57 PM
Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace
As has been almost constantly the case for the past few months...
Mon, Jun 1 2026, 9:35 AM
Last week's focus for war-related headlines involved various attempts to hone in on just how close we were to a confirmed preliminary peace deal. The ...
Fri, May 29 2026, 4:02 PM
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct
A few hours into the trading ...
Fri, May 29 2026, 10:03 AM
Bonds were flat overnight for a change, with just a bit of 2-way volatility but no notable directional movement. Without any new or interesting war-re...
Thu, May 28 2026, 3:46 PM
Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines
Need a way to explain overnight weakness in the bond market? War he...
Thu, May 28 2026, 9:31 AM
There's a supertanker load of data this morning with some apparently interesting results, but the market remains focused primarily on supertankers bei...
Wed, May 27 2026, 4:03 PM
In a Shocking Twist, Bonds Relive Another Groundhog Day
The present week began on a stronger note thanks to ...
Wed, May 27 2026, 8:50 AM
It seems that we've seen slight variations on the same peace deal news for the past several days. That's probably because there is an actual peace dea...
Tue, May 26 2026, 3:32 PM
Good Reminder That The Market Gets to Decide What Matters
If oil, Treasuries, stocks, and the rest of the ma...
Tue, May 26 2026, 9:35 AM
On Sunday evening, the NYT ran a story that the U.S. and Iran had agreed in principle to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The key distinct...
Fri, May 22 2026, 3:05 PM
Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines
Bonds remain surprisingly willing to react to the most seemin...
Fri, May 22 2026, 8:59 AM
Bonds are starting the session at the best levels of the week with modest overnight gains getting a small boost from news that Pakistan's army chief (...
Thu, May 21 2026, 4:05 PM
Peace Deal Rumors Make For Mid-Day Reversal
Bonds started the day in fairly forgettable and slightly weaker ...
Thu, May 21 2026, 9:19 AM
Bonds spent most of the overnight session moving sideways to slightly stronger, but everything changed at 6:20am. That's when news broke regarding a s...
Wed, May 20 2026, 4:19 PM
Full Reversal And Then Some
Bonds more than made up from Tuesday's rout with a massive rally on Wednesday. U...
Wed, May 20 2026, 10:24 AM
Tuesday's massive wave of bond-specific weakness still has the analytical community scratching its collective head. Our contacts are either saying not...
Tue, May 19 2026, 4:57 PM
Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures
Nerd alert: there's no way to discuss what happened in the bond mark...
Tue, May 19 2026, 9:40 AM
Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalat...
Mon, May 18 2026, 4:18 PM
Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed
Monday's trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-w...
Mon, May 18 2026, 10:36 AM
Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading bega...
Fri, May 15 2026, 5:12 PM
Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day
Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of ...
Fri, May 15 2026, 9:19 AM
Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit...
Thu, May 14 2026, 4:22 PM
Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon
The day began with promise, but devolved into yet anot...
Thu, May 14 2026, 9:46 AM
A recovery toward lower oil prices paved the way for the bond market to recover yesterday morning's weakness and the same theme continued in the overn...
Wed, May 13 2026, 3:38 PM
MBS Fully Recover After Initial Reaction to Inflation Data
There's no question that this morning's PPI data ...
Wed, May 13 2026, 10:21 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is much more volatile and, on average, much less of a market mover than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but occasionall...
Tue, May 12 2026, 4:06 PM
Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions
Because CPI came out slightly higher to...
Tue, May 12 2026, 9:29 AM
This morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall ...
Mon, May 11 2026, 3:50 PM
Over Before it Began
Monday proved to be a boring trading day despite the moderately big sell-off. Yields ac...
Mon, May 11 2026, 11:28 AM
Bonds are starting the day moderately weaker. The reasons are straightforward. Chief among them, Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war,...
Fri, May 8 2026, 3:34 PM
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to p...
Fri, May 8 2026, 9:00 AM
Everyone's been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bo...
Thu, May 7 2026, 3:24 PM
Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines
The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-def...
Thu, May 7 2026, 9:08 AM
Bonds and oil rallied again in the overnight session, though not as swiftly as they did yesterday. News was thinner, but there was still an obvious ca...
Wed, May 6 2026, 4:15 PM
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day
The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to...
Wed, May 6 2026, 8:49 AM
There was one, big, obvious market mover overnight. At 4:50am ET, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a one page memo of unders...
Tue, May 5 2026, 3:20 PM
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Today's headline is somewhat misleading. I...
Tue, May 5 2026, 9:37 AM
After hitting the highest yields in more than a month yesterday, bonds have managed to pick up a few bps. The bulk of the recovery was already in plac...
Mon, May 4 2026, 4:08 PM
Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines
Monday's trading session ended up being as simple as it was unpl...
Mon, May 4 2026, 10:09 AM
The overnight and early domestic trading hours have brought a mix of familiar and unfamiliar patterns. Up until roughly 8:30am, we saw a very familiar...
Fri, May 1 2026, 3:27 PM
Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change
Bonds began the day roughly flat before losing gr...
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