There was some oil price volatility today that looked like it might line up with some of the intraday volatility in the bond market. This may have actually been relevant between 10:10 and 10:30am as various rumors circulated regarding a draft deal. But the general trading range of Treasuries/MBS has been facilitated by the ongoing focus on potential credit concerns for a few key tech names. Coreweave is front and center with today's corporate bond volatility lining up very well with the AM Treasury volatility. Specifically, the height of Coreweave's yield spike lined up perfectly with the best level in Treasuries. Bonds ultimately ended the day slightly stronger--keeping them comfortably in the lower range seen since last Thursday.
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- Building permits
- 1.400m vs 1.390m
- Housing Starts
- 1.221m vs 1.300m
- Building permits
Early gains and a subsequent bounce lined up with Coreweave's stock price bottoming out and and recovering. Oil prices were possibly a consideration, but we're cautious about expecting much correlation there based on the very disconnected trading of the past month.
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