Mon, Dec 15 2025, 3:20 PM
Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck
Monday ended up being a forgettable December trading day with modest...
Mon, Dec 15 2025, 10:00 AM
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for the two most important economic reports to the bond market: The Employment Situation (aka jobs...
Fri, Dec 12 2025, 9:41 AM
There's a noticeable divergence between long and short term bonds since the Fed announcement, and it's becoming more pronounced today. We can conside...
Thu, Dec 11 2025, 4:11 PM
Two-Way Trading But Not Much Day-Over-Day Movement
Bonds had a solid morning, adding moderately to yesterday...
Thu, Dec 11 2025, 10:22 AM
Bonds are adding moderate to yesterday's post-Fed gains. Most of today's rally has followed this morning's jobless claims data, but we wouldn't necess...
Wed, Dec 10 2025, 4:41 PM
Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved
Today's gains ended up being all about Po...
Wed, Dec 10 2025, 2:00 PM
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate ...
Wed, Dec 10 2025, 10:14 AM
Bonds were modestly weaker overnight, but have moved back into positive territory after this morning's Employment Cost Index and NYSE. This means 10yr...
Tue, Dec 9 2025, 4:18 PM
Wednesday is All About Dot Plot and Powell
Bonds lost ground moderately and logically on Tuesday in response...
Tue, Dec 9 2025, 11:36 AM
Tuesday is a fairly straightforward session for the bond market. By now, we assume most of the pre-Fed positioning would be out of the way, and we kn...
Mon, Dec 8 2025, 4:26 PM
Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly
Both stocks and bonds began to swoon moments after this morning's 9:30am NYSE o...
Mon, Dec 8 2025, 10:07 AM
Bonds are under pressure yet again at the start of the new week--insult added to injury coming off of the worst week of selling since the late October...
Fri, Dec 5 2025, 4:40 PM
Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure
In the realm of market commentary, technicals are a vastly overus...
Fri, Dec 5 2025, 10:33 AM
If there's one resounding theme in the bond market this week, it's that trading momentum marched to its own beat with almost zero regard for the avail...
Thu, Dec 4 2025, 4:21 PM
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data
On multiple recent occasions, we've seen bonds make a moderate move on...
Thu, Dec 4 2025, 8:53 AM
Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won't be any help. Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest t...
Wed, Dec 3 2025, 4:33 PM
Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally
Who knows how today would have ended up if the relevant econ data...
Wed, Dec 3 2025, 8:37 AM
10yr yields are almost 4bps lower in early trading and the ADP employment report came in at -32k vs a +10k forecast. The logical conclusion would be t...
Tue, Dec 2 2025, 4:02 PM
Steady Gains Throughout The Day
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory although MBS were fairly qu...
Tue, Dec 2 2025, 10:49 AM
The early days of a new trading month and the positioning ahead of next week's Fed announcement have resulted in clear curve trading biases. In Engli...
Mon, Dec 1 2025, 4:04 PM
Complete Silence After AM Volatility
Bonds were mostly flat overnight before a sharp sell-off from 8am throu...
Mon, Dec 1 2025, 10:13 AM
Bonds are sharply weaker to begin the new week and the new month. This is the first (and probably best) clue as to the nature of this morning's market...
Fri, Nov 28 2025, 12:53 PM
Open But Not Really Open
This is just a reminder that the Friday after Thanksgiving is the most useless and ...
Wed, Nov 26 2025, 2:55 PM
Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence
Although there was a brief negative reaction to this morning's...
Wed, Nov 26 2025, 8:55 AM
Bonds were just slightly weaker overnight but are losing more ground in early trading. The culprit: both of this morning's 8:30am ET economic release...
Tue, Nov 25 2025, 5:08 PM
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month
Bonds improved only moderately on Tuesday in a move that's just as eas...
Tue, Nov 25 2025, 8:53 AM
ADP's weekly employment report showed another contraction at -13.5k, but unlike last week, no one seems to care. We also got the delayed release of Re...
Mon, Nov 24 2025, 4:39 PM
Lowest Yields in Almost 4 Weeks Despite Ongoing Stock Market Recovery
There's no question that stock prices ...
Mon, Nov 24 2025, 10:04 AM
It's a data-free Monday on a holiday-shortened week and there aren't any high-impact headlines or massive stock swings to spark any serious bond marke...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 3:04 PM
Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks
The stock market factored into the bond market's perform...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 9:31 AM
It was a pretty straightforward overnight session with a very high degree of correlation between bond yields and stock prices. The final leg of the ra...
Thu, Nov 20 2025, 4:21 PM
Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card
The rescheduled release of the Septembe...
Thu, Nov 20 2025, 9:19 AM
It's shaping up to be a "no whammies" sort of morning for the bond market. There's no denying that the jobs report was a highly tradeable event. The ...
Wed, Nov 19 2025, 4:23 PM
Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher
As expected, the recent raft of hawkish Fed speakers foreshadowed (whether in...
Wed, Nov 19 2025, 10:11 AM
Correlation between stocks and bonds is hit and miss depending on other factors. Before the age of more aggressive Fed intervention, it was more commo...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 4:46 PM
Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility
With only a few exceptions, bonds have been a rudderless ship during t...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 10:22 AM
We've seen a clumsy, confused return of various economic reports this morning (several reports were no previously announced with rescheduled release d...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 4:07 PM
Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform
In the bigger picture, bonds were flat on Monday without any major volat...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 9:30 AM
The jobs report (for September) will be released on Thursday. It is the first major econ data to re-appear after the shutdown. Notably, that's because...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 4:58 PM
Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable
Viewed in a vacuum, this mornings 7-8am rally remains ...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 9:24 AM
Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight session. 4am to 7am was exceptionally flat and narrow. This is notable because stocks had don...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 4:02 PM
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
The government reopened on Thursday. Both stocks and bon...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 8:06 AM
First off, the market expected a shutdown resolution by mid November and especially since this past weekend. That's the reason today's news means ess...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 4:10 PM
Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs
While there were no big ticket economic reports on to...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 10:21 AM
ADP has been in the monthly data game for a long time when it comes to payroll counts, but their weekly report is the new kid on the econ data block. ...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 4:27 PM
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure
Bonds were weaker in the overnight sess...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 11:18 AM
If members of the House can make it back to D.C. in sufficient numbers, there's a real possibility that the shutdown will end this week. Some marketpl...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 10:51 AM
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as st...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 5:14 PM
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend sinc...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 10:49 AM
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One ...
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