The first 2 days of the week marked the best 48 hour stint for mortgage rates since March 2020, and one of the best on record. Such victories require a rarely seen combination of factors, but at least one ingredient is the nearby presence of equally big moves in the other direction. Yesterday filled that role with rates jumping higher at the fastest pace of the year, more than fully erasing Tuesday's portion of the gains.
So to recap, if we assign numerical values to mortgage rate movement (were + is good for rates), it goes something like this:
- Monday +10
- Tuesday + 10
- Wednesday -12
How about Thursday? It started out as a -1 or a 0 depending on the lender, but average moved up to "0" or better by the end of the day. In other words, today's rates are a lot like yesterday's latest levels, and after living through yesterday, it's a relief not to be losing any additional ground.
Emotional, subjective characterizations aside, it actually is a good thing to see today's stability. It suggests that Wednesday's weakness had more to do with correcting the Mon/Tue exuberance than signifying a confirmed reversal of momentum. The next wave of momentum has yet to be decided, but geopolitical developments will continue to play a key role.
Additionally, Friday morning brings what is typically the most important scheduled economic report on any given month in the form of the Employment Situation. This time around, the market won't get much by way of new information from the payroll count, but traders could be interested in the report's other components which include things like wage growth and labor force participation statistics.