Thu, Apr 22 2010, 6:22 PM
The answer to the question I posed in the title of this blog: YES. Longer term bullish technicals still outweigh short term bearish arguments. If you ...
Thu, Apr 22 2010, 5:57 PM
The Department of Treasury announced the terms of next week’s debt offering. They will sell $44 billion 2 year notes, $42 billion 5 year notes, $32...
Thu, Apr 22 2010, 1:32 PM
f you already locked, you're good. If you haven't, and HAVE seen a reprice for the worse today, you can afford to wait and hope for a not-as-likely t...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 9:18 AM
* MBS opened up as high as 100-10 before 9am, trends still developing
* The 10yr took a nice "baby bounce" off yesterday's low yield as a MAJOR p...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 6:03 PM
Not sure and we really don't want to look too much into this market's "feelings" at the moment. The empty economics calendar, constant babble about Go...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 5:30 PM
Mortgage rates did improve today, but the Treasury Department will announce the terms of next week's government debt auctions at 11am tomorrow. The Tr...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 3:38 PM
The "rate sheet influential" FN 4.5 MBS coupon is just off its highest prices/lowest yields of the day and one major lender just repriced for the bett...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 1:48 PM
Best possibility remains reprices for the better. Take note of how aggressive the pricing is (or isn't). And if you're looking at something that's a...
Tue, Apr 20 2010, 10:38 AM
Activity seems subdued. If I were looking for a reason to believe that chopatility might trigger the above offered reprice targets, I might say a lack...
Tue, Apr 20 2010, 5:41 PM
Tue, Apr 20 2010, 4:02 PM
Despite mortgage rates bumping a few basis points higher, I continue to favor locking. Stocks seem like an unstoppable force moving higher plus we hav...
Tue, Apr 20 2010, 3:14 PM
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 10:13 AM
The obvious leading candidate for the market's strategic motivation will be CDO contagion and continued stories of misrepresentation and market manipu...
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 7:11 PM
The moral of the story is that we've been feeling the liklihood for slightly higher rates at some point this week and the mild movement today from 3.7...
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 3:54 PM
It was a very slow day on Wall Street as most market participants are still trying to figure out if the Goldman Sachs news is going to spread around t...
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 3:30 PM
Mortgages have hit a new intraday price low. Even as MBS and Treasuries have worsened further in recent minutes, they are not showing a clear disposit...
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 1:25 PM
Like big brother TSYs, trading of production MBS coupons has been slow to start the week. For the most part, we are playing "follow the leader" with b...
Fri, Apr 16 2010, 12:23 PM
The SEC caught us all off-guard this morning by announcing they were filing civil charges on Goldman Sachs for material misrepresentation.A knee jerk ...
Fri, Apr 16 2010, 9:31 AM
Fri, Apr 16 2010, 5:13 PM
We had a choppy start to the day. Mortgage rates opened up marginally better vs, yesterday but mostly the same. However, in the lunch hour, breaking n...
Fri, Apr 16 2010, 4:46 PM
You'll notice that AQ and I tend to ramp up our fervor with respect to locking your loans around market peaks. We could ponder why that is, but more ...
Thu, Apr 15 2010, 12:45 PM
Over the past two days we have been favoring a lock bias. This bias was based more on lender strategies than price action in the bond market. While we...
Thu, Apr 15 2010, 10:08 AM
Considering CPI data confirmed inflation is well contained and Ben Bernanke continues to provide low rate rhetoric..I have to say I am baffled by the...
Thu, Apr 15 2010, 4:29 PM
Benchmark Treasury yields rose and mortgage-backed security prices fell after the market received mostly positive economic data on the manufacturing s...
Thu, Apr 15 2010, 3:45 PM
It's a bit too soon to call that for today and likely of small significance compared to whatever tomorrow holds. From a bearish stance, we've caught ...
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 10:14 AM
Inflation is well-contained but consumer spending continues to improve. One is bond bullish the other is bond bearish. Looks like 830AM data was a was...
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 6:22 PM
I guess it would be that today's weakness isn't necessarily a sign of things to come, but there's plenty of potential for gains and losses ahead, eith...
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 4:51 PM
Mortgage rates yesterday ended a rally streak that brought consumer borrowing costs back down toward their best levels of 2010. Almost erasing all the...
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 3:45 PM
The FN 4.5 has fallen to its lowest price of the day. Reprices for the worse have been reported.
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 2:30 PM
I really didn't take anything new from today's hearing. My dovish stance was reconfirmed. There are still significant restraints on the economy, infla...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 11:12 AM
After hitting an early morning price high of 100-18, the FN 4.5 is currently trading -0-01 at 100-06, a new intraday price low.Lenders who published p...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 10:02 AM
THERE IS A CLEAR CUT LACK OF NEW LOAN SUPPLY IN THE AGENCY MBS MARKET. Combine that with a general slowdown in mortgage specific trading flows (+modes...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 7:36 PM
If you have been floating you should have seen your interest rate drop by 0.25% to 0.375% over the past week. We always say "Float at the Price Lows a...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 6:11 PM
Despite a few instances of volatility above, we see 10yr yields gradually "coasting" into a roughly 3.82 level ahead of tomorrow's CPI data and Bernan...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 2:36 PM
If Ben's tight rope walk is balanced and the short-end of the yield curve rallies as a result, it sure would make it a heck of a lot easier for the 10...
Mon, Apr 12 2010, 12:05 PM
Mon, Apr 12 2010, 10:13 AM
Mon, Apr 12 2010, 5:26 PM
Searching for the causality behind today's stellar performance in bonds has left even some smart folks guessing. Reasons offered include "end of the ...
Mon, Apr 12 2010, 2:41 PM
When the day began, lender rate sheets were very similar where they were set on Friday, however both benchmark Treasury yields and mortgage-backed sec...
Mon, Apr 12 2010, 2:18 PM
Though there are several ways to approach the strength in bonds this afternoon, leading candidates include upcoming Federal Reserve speakers who have ...
Fri, Apr 9 2010, 10:24 AM
This modest retracement is not out of the ordinary and definitely not unwelcome by MBS valuations. I hope I was able to provide enough justification t...
Fri, Apr 9 2010, 5:17 PM
Mortgage rates spent this week slowly recovering from a healthy losing streak. If you were floating two weeks ago, when mortgage rates started this lo...
Fri, Apr 9 2010, 1:33 PM
Couple significant technical events in the past hour... The charts make it look as if the market reacted to a specific news or econ item, but so far,...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 12:49 PM
The 10 yr note yield has risen to its highest yield of the day amidst position squaring. The 3.625% coupon bearing 10 year note is currently -0-03 at ...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 9:49 AM
You know the story. We forecast a test of 4.00% back in December. That test happened in extremely illiquid quarter-end conditions after a run of bett...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 4:46 PM
I continue to favor floating one day at a time. Lenders are being very slow to pass along the price gains we have enjoyed over the last couple days. ...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 4:21 PM
4.5's down 2 ticks on the day to 100-00. 10yr note up about 2.3bps at 3.886. Stocks back at 1187 in S&P. Bernanke speaks later this evening. Limited...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 1:56 PM
The Treasury has successfully auctioned $13 billion 30 year bonds. Four of the last five long bond auctions have been at this size, so the market is a...
Wed, Apr 7 2010, 12:36 PM
Things are either going to get really great, really quick for MBS, or insanely volatile. EXPECT THE VOLATILITY! THESE ARE BIG TIMES IN THE BOND MARK...
