Our lone economic data release today was Retail Sales. This data reports on the monthly change in total sales receipts taken in at retail stores. The Census Bureau's Retail Sales release is the first report of the month on consumer spending, and since consumer spending accounts for a large majority of GDP, it's capable of affecting the sentiment of the broader marketplace.
The data released today covered consumer spending in August. Total Retail Sales rose 0.4%, which was slightly better than forecast. When excluding the auto sales compenent, the data was twice as good as economists expected, printing a month over month gain of 0.6%. The only negativity embedded in this report was a 0.1% downward revision to July data. READ MORE
Normally, when economic data is better than anticipated, you would expect to see stocks move higher and bonds move lower. That didn’t happen today. Following the release, stock market futures moved lower while bonds rallied. As bond prices move higher, yields(interest rates) fall.
Lender rates sheets are significantly better today. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage has fallen back to the 4.25% to 4.50% range for well qualified consumers. 4.125% is on the board at a few more lenders too. To secure a par interest rate on a conventional mortgage you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all the closing costs including an estimated one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. There are a few lenders offering 4.125%, but it will costs a little extra. If you are seeking a 15 year term, the par rate continues to hold in the 3.75% to 4.00% range.
If you've been floating, you've endured a bumpy ride over the past 5 days but it was worth your while...
MORTGAGE RATES HAVE RECOVERED FROM RECENT WEAKNESS
If you've been waiting for rates to recover, you are now in profit taking territory. Floating further is the equivalent of gambling with your monthly payment. The larger your loan amount, the more your payment will increase if mortgage rates rise. We are still on high alert, although risks are fading.