Fri, Aug 27 2021, 10:00 AM
Much has been made of the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium in 2021 and in a general sense throughout the years. On some years, the anticipation has prove...
Thu, Aug 26 2021, 3:43 PM
Bonds Leveling Off But Not Out of The Woods
Bonds began the day with a test of the important technical ceili...
Thu, Aug 26 2021, 2:36 PM
Mortgage rates stabilized today after moving higher at a moderately quick pace over the past 2 days. To be sure, today's rates are definitely higher t...
Thu, Aug 26 2021, 11:24 AM
What parent hasn’t heard, “Are we there yet?” from the back seat during a road trip? The same could be said about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Gove...
Thu, Aug 26 2021, 10:51 AM
Bonds are either on the doorstep of critical line in the sand, or they soon will be. These lines are drawn on the technical ceilings at 1.37% and 1.4...
Wed, Aug 25 2021, 4:09 PM
Yields Searching For a Pre-Fed Ceiling
Although the week began in forgettable fashion, Tuesday saw yields mo...
Wed, Aug 25 2021, 2:32 PM
Early in the pandemic (Version I) there were a lot of theories advanced about its lasting effects on housing. Some of the theories were fanciful. Thes...
Wed, Aug 25 2021, 10:50 AM
In the various originator-centric conferences I’ve attended, I’ve never seen a session on, “How to beat up your capital markets group on pricing & ext...
Wed, Aug 25 2021, 10:45 AM
Both refinance and purchase applications increased slightly last week , and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a ...
Wed, Aug 25 2021, 10:25 AM
The profits of independent mortgage banks and bank mortgage subsidiaries took their third straight tumble in the second quarter of this year. Those pr...
Wed, Aug 25 2021, 8:06 AM
Although the week began in forgettable fashion, Tuesday saw yields move up at a moderate pace with no overt provocation. Indeed a quick glance at the ...
Tue, Aug 24 2021, 4:32 PM
Increasingly Defensive Ahead of Jackson Hole
Bonds sold off moderately and steadily all day without any clea...
Tue, Aug 24 2021, 2:36 PM
After a sharp increase to start the year and significant improvements between April and mid July, mortgage rates have been fairly flat for more than a...
Tue, Aug 24 2021, 11:00 AM
New home sales recovered slightly in July after two months which saw the annual rate of sales dip by an aggregate of more than 100,000 units. The U.S....
Tue, Aug 24 2021, 10:57 AM
Worried about your privacy? You should be. Illinois’ Lemonade, an AI-enabled provider of homeowners and renters insurance, was hit with a privacy clas...
Tue, Aug 24 2021, 10:37 AM
MBS and Treasuries do such a good job traveling together that it's especially notable when they diverge. That's doubly true on days like today where ...
Mon, Aug 23 2021, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates are only adjusted once per day by default. From there, the underlying bond market would need to improve or deteriorate by a certain amo...
Mon, Aug 23 2021, 4:40 PM
Treasuries Slide Sideways as MBS Outperform
The most notable development today was the outperformance on the...
Mon, Aug 23 2021, 2:11 PM
Existing homes sales posted the second consecutive increase in July after breaking out of a slump in June that had endured for four months. The Nation...
Mon, Aug 23 2021, 11:36 AM
The Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium has often served as a venue for the Fed Chair to offer a sneak preview of impending policy changes or simply t...
Mon, Aug 23 2021, 10:49 AM
Fires in California, floods in Tennessee, hurricanes in New York, COVID hospitalizations seemingly everywhere written up by the press. The “fun” never...
Fri, Aug 20 2021, 5:35 PM
Rates are on hold until the next chapter is written in the complex saga of covid versus the market. This isn't to say rates perfectly flat--simply tha...
Fri, Aug 20 2021, 4:07 PM
Moderate Weakness For Uneventful Reasons
Bonds lost some ground today with 10yr yields up roughly 2bps headi...
Fri, Aug 20 2021, 1:42 PM
Fannie Mae's economists provided a mixed forecast this month. The baseline view of the company's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group is for th...
Fri, Aug 20 2021, 1:39 PM
The federal foreclosure moratoria expired at the end of July and, with some 1.45 million borrowers seriously delinquent on their mortgages but not in ...
Fri, Aug 20 2021, 10:46 AM
Who wants to work on a Friday in summer? Not me! I was pleased to find the Type The Alphabet Game , which times you on how fast you type the alphabet....
Fri, Aug 20 2021, 10:33 AM
It's a good time to revisit the primer on illiquidity unless the term is 2nd nature for you (here it is). Illiquidity is definitely a factor today as ...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 5:25 PM
It seemed like a simple solution for expanding the credit profile of many first-time homebuyers, but Fannie Mae's new plan to utilize rent payment his...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 5:20 PM
The July report on residential construction from the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development shows that permits increased d...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 4:31 PM
Bonds Finally Have a Boring Day
10yr yields traded in a range of less than 3bps during the domestic session ...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly lower today as the bond market improved for the 2nd straight day. When bonds prices move higher, bond yields (or rates) m...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 11:23 AM
In late July, bonds rode a wave of momentum toward lower yields with many traders targeting the 1.25% zone in 10yr Treasuries. That floor was broken o...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 11:02 AM
So you say that you never learn anything by reading this Commentary? How about Wile E. Coyote's middle name? His first name is an obvious pun on the w...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 4:31 PM
Bonds Sell Rumor, Buy New on Inconsequential Fed Minutes
A lot has happened in the past 3 months--especially...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates haven't been skyrocketing, by any means, but they have been moving up in fits and starts over the past 2 weeks. Today was just another ...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 11:28 AM
Technology is nice (the latest bit being UWM’s goal of accepting bitcoin by year end; magnetic strips on credit cards are going away ), but our indust...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 10:28 AM
The Fed has increasingly been discussing its tapering strategy. They haven't been shy about saying so. In fact, at least 5 members have vocally supp...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 8:09 AM
Mortgage application volume was lower over the last week, continuing the up-one-week, down-the-next pattern it has displayed since late June. The Mort...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 3:51 PM
What's Up With MBS Underperformance Today?
As long as we're not dealing with big, obvious, unique market rea...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 3:34 PM
Mortgage applications for the purchase of newly built homes fell sharply in July, but the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said it expects new home ...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates experienced an uptick in volatility last week as the broader bond market was hit with a big dose of new supply. In other words, between...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 12:36 PM
Fears about construction costs, supply shortages, and concern over fast rising home prices acted to deflate builder confidence this month. The Nationa...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 12:32 PM
While home prices have been posting record increases for months, it appears that rents are trying to keep up. CoreLogic says the connection is clear. ...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 11:20 AM
The 10-year yield back down to 1.24 percent!? Watch those early pay off penalties. Along those lines, are you servicing loans? Mind your p’s and q’s, ...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 10:06 AM
The Retail Sales report is generally considered to be in the upper echelon of economic reports when it comes to bond market impact. As such, it's som...
Mon, Aug 16 2021, 4:46 PM
Drifty Day, Treasuries Hold Weekly Gains, MBS Underperform.
With a strong move last Friday, the bond market ...
Mon, Aug 16 2021, 11:04 AM
People ask me what I do when I finish the commentary and send it out. This will give you an inkling . I don’t know if folks at United Wholesale do the...
Mon, Aug 16 2021, 10:55 AM
Just when you thought rates were bouncing higher after hitting 6 month lows, the new week begins with bonds re-staking a claim to the recent, strong...
Fri, Aug 13 2021, 4:29 PM
Unexpected Snowball Rally After Consumer Sentiment Data
Snowball moves in markets, by their nature, tend to ...
Fri, Aug 13 2021, 11:16 AM
The number of loans in forbearance dropped by 83,000 over the last week. This is on top of a 71,000 loan reduction during the first few days of August...
