Fri, Jul 8 2022, 12:54 PM
This morning's nonfarm payroll count came in at 372k versus a 268k consensus. Unemployment and wages held steady (with a small +0.1% revision to last...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 11:08 AM
Dang, is there any good news out there? Japanese ex-Prime Minister Abe was tragically assassinated. Rates stink, especially compare to 2020 and 2021, ...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 4:35 PM
Bond Bounce Continues Ahead of Jobs Report and Next Week's CPI
Apart from a brief breakout in mid-June, rate...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 3:46 PM
Without a shadow of a doubt, mortgage rates are noticeably higher today than they were yesterday. They were also noticeably higher yesterday compared...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 11:18 AM
Momentum indicators are staples of technical analysis for a reason. While the exact timing and magnitude of market movement will always defy accurate...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 10:42 AM
Many youngsters don’t know the “Shave and a haircut? Two bits!” knock, or musical notes. Some things are timeless, like British Prime Ministers coming...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving lower for the past 3 weeks after hitting the highest levels since 2008 in the middle of June. This was a larger-scale...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 4:31 PM
Sharp Losses Offer a Reminder About The Range
We first began to discuss the prevailing rate narrative on May...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 11:52 AM
The two-year explosion in home prices appears to be cooling a bit. Black Knight says annual appreciation was down in May for the second straight month...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 10:55 AM
“I'm a multitasker. I can listen, ignore, and forget all at the same time!” We won’t, however, soon forget this part of the business cycle. “Rob, than...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 10:48 AM
Mortgage application activities declined during the week ended July 1 after three straight weeks of improvement. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 10:41 AM
The 2nd half of the last 2 months has been good for the bond market, as long as you're willing to overlook the fact that both multi-week rallies requi...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates hit 5.5% last Friday for the top tier conforming 30yr fixed scenario at the average lender. That was the lowest since June 8th, just...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 3:36 PM
Strong Start Balanced by Potential Resistance
Bonds rallied early in the domestic session and again heading ...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 11:34 AM
“What do you get when you cross the Atlantic Ocean with the Titanic? Halfway.” We’ve crossed the halfway point of 2022, and where’s everyone’s attenti...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 9:47 AM
Inflation fear/optimism vs global growth concerns... that is the headline at the moment--not just for the domestic bond market, but for the entire glo...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:18 PM
Mortgage rates have been volatile in 2022. Most of that volatility has played out in the form of higher rates. The past 2 weeks have been a notable ex...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:17 PM
Big Gains Intact After Huge Intraday Swings
Bonds had 3 fewer hours to trade on Friday, but ended up coverin...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 11:54 AM
Bonds were tentatively ready to confirm a top in yields and runaway inflation in May, but hotter CPI in the Eurozone and the US caused one last revisi...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 9:58 AM
This morning, at the beginning of the third quarter of 2022, I learned about this morsel: The most common national holiday around the world is indepen...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:45 PM
Inflation is the enemy of low interest rates. As such, the mortgage market was waiting patiently for this week's key inflation report released this m...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:33 PM
Bonds Get The Rally They Deserved in Exchange for Cooler PCE Data
This week's data focus was all about today...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 11:54 AM
PCE inflation data painted a cooler picture than the most recent CPI report (the one that sent rates surging higher into mid-June). So far this morni...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 10:49 AM
“Looking out at the road rushing under my wheels… Looking back at the years gone by like so many summer fields.” Yes, at the end of today we’re halfwa...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds have been under tremendous pressure due to inflation. As such, when a major inflation report c...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 4:41 PM
Bonds Bolstered by Big Swings in Inflation Data and Expectations
US bonds found several sources of inspirati...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 12:13 PM
Sometimes bonds head into a trading day knowing that some key event(s) will hold the potential to push rates decisively higher or lower depending on t...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 10:41 AM
The volume of mortgage applications rose fractionally last week as rates edged down and applications for refinancing staged a small comeback. The Mort...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 10:39 AM
We’re all trying to save a few pennies. We have the increase in postal rates coming soon and perhaps pick up a roll, or ten, of Forever Stamps. It’s n...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 5:02 PM
After moving up sharply on Friday, mortgage rates weren't significantly higher yesterday. That represented a bit of a disconnect with underlying bond...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 4:50 PM
Surprisingly Resilient as Range-Finding Expedition Continues
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but qui...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 4:26 PM
It's one of the perennial "yeah buts" of the two largest and most widely-cited home price indices: there data is always about 2 months old by the time...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 10:59 AM
You can rest assured that no animals were harmed in the making of this commentary! But the harm felt by stockholders during the last several months ha...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:12 PM
Last week was significantly calmer than the previous week for rates (and many other things in the financial market, for that matter). After hitting t...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:03 PM
Bond Market Defensiveness Justified by Weak Auction
Coming into the domestic session, bonds were weaker with...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 3:43 PM
Pending Home Sales hit their most recent peak in October according to data reported in November, 2021 by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). ...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 12:31 PM
As rates moved up from the lows seen at the end of May, we viewed it as the confirmation of the broader sideways momentum that we hoped would replace ...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 10:56 AM
“I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not so sure.” Management teams at lenders and vendors can’t be indecisive in this environment. Who’s going to be rig...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 5:00 PM
In 2020 and 2021, housing boomed and rates plummeted at a pace that many considered to be unsustainable . 2022's role is to take things back in the o...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 4:28 PM
Bonds Lost Ground, But It Was Still Sort of a Victory
As the day began, bonds flirted with the idea of break...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 12:56 PM
Last month's New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau was a real downer. It showed sharp declines in sales and a puzzlingly abrupt jump in inventor...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 11:23 AM
Knocking on wood is an apotropaic (averting bad luck) tradition of literally touching, tapping, or knocking on wood, or merely stating that one is doi...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 10:36 AM
Granted, the bond market lost some ground yesterday afternoon, but the more important takeaway was the day-over-day gains that successfully confirmed...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 10:17 AM
Rates may be much higher in each of the past 3 months, but those with mortgages are making their payments with record-setting regularity. The overall...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 4:06 PM
Most of today's mortgage rate headlines suggest that rates are higher this week. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Well, a few things could b...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 3:53 PM
Big Intraday Weakness Against Backdrop of Bigger Picture Strength
MBS lost more than 3/8ths of a point betwe...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 12:27 PM
A slew of PMI reports (Purchasing Manager Indices, which are essentially more granular, more timely, and only slightly more focused versions of GDP) s...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 10:24 AM
Crypto and blockchain technologies have some valid applications but when it’s just for investment, there are tons of scams. (And what would we do for ...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM
Despite Onslaught of Fed Speakers, Bonds Hold Solid Gains
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM
When rates jump by some of the biggest amounts ever to the highest levels in more than a decade, it sets us up for some equally impressive corrections...
