Wed, Apr 20 2022, 3:07 PM
The brutal interest rate spike of 2022 has been all over the news for more than a month, but the strong pace of home sales (or purchase mortgage appli...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 12:57 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest weekly mortgage application data shows an ongoing and unsurprising decline in refinance applications. ...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 11:35 AM
Happy 420 Day. (Tomorrow, by the way, is Happy Surprise Drug Test Day.) Another day, another layoff story from Better.com. The human tragedy in Ukrain...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 11:27 AM
We could certainly discuss the fact that bonds are improving so far today amid a strong curve flattening trade, but recent experience suggests we wait...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 9:58 AM
Despite the oft-cited hurdles, housing production continued to strengthen in March. Permits for residential construction were issued at seasonally adj...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 6:03 PM
Where do we even begin the conversation about mortgage rates on any given day in the spring of 2022? The news has frequently fallen into the category...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 5:25 PM
Fed Speakers and Corporate Bonds Keep Negative Momentum Intact
Bonds came into the domestic session moderate...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 11:20 AM
Another day, another brutal sell-off with little by way of compelling justification. This one may actually be more simple than it seems at first glan...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 10:18 AM
As the nation ruminates on the court ruling on the mandatory mask mandate, remember, “You do not need a parachute to skydive. You only need a parachut...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 4:50 PM
The average mortgage lender was quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 5.25% last Monday for top tier scenarios--the highest since late 2018. Rat...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 4:36 PM
Flat Day For MBS as Markets Wait For More Activity
With most of Europe out of the office, volume got off to ...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 2:44 PM
Mortgage rates may be at the highest levels in more than 3 years, but the housing market has yet to show visible signs of distress. April's release o...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 12:14 PM
With it being the Monday after a 3.5 day weekend, with London closed, and no significant data on the econ calendar, today's marching orders are to act...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 10:58 AM
Notes to start off the week?! First off, there are some darned clever people around, and this ditty (thank you to John H. for sending) sung to “Americ...
Thu, Apr 14 2022, 2:49 PM
Here's a happy but unhappy coincidence: weekly rate surveys (which often lag reality) and actual daily mortgage rates are actually on the same page to...
Thu, Apr 14 2022, 2:35 PM
Another False Alarm Turns Into Bond Market Beat-Down
If today's bond market behavior wasn't making us cry, w...
Thu, Apr 14 2022, 10:34 AM
It’s Thursday. What should we talk about today? Elon Musk’s bid for Twitter? How about the jump in adjustable-rate locks as evidenced by the MBA’s fig...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 4:47 PM
When it comes to financial markets and mortgage rates, things rarely happen in straight lines. Each time rates spiked to new multi-year highs in rece...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 4:01 PM
How About Now (For A Ceiling in Rates) ?
Producer prices surged much higher than expected in this morning's ...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 12:09 PM
The bond market is running out of potential market movers on this holiday-shortened week with this afternoon's 30yr bond auction and tomorrow's ECB an...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 11:33 AM
I happen to be visiting Manhattan this week. Besides the news about the subway shooting, the overall “hum” of this place being unmistakable and I ment...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 11:27 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported double digit increases in the interest rates of most mortgage products again last week, and refinancin...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 5:03 PM
There's no question that today was one of the few recent examples of a "good day" for most of the bond market and, consequently, mortgage rates. The ...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 4:30 PM
Nice Data-Driven Rally, But Keep Recent False Starts in Mind
Incessant trends toward higher rates bring the ...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 3:05 PM
Two full years after the COVID-19 virus upended life the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA’s) Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) remains some...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 2:37 PM
While still healthy, mortgage lenders’ 2021 profits took a deep dive from the record returns recorded in 2020. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 12:11 PM
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) is arguably the most important data point for interest rates in a world where inflation is at the highest levels since ...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 11:44 AM
I knew it was going to be a rough morning today when my alarm went off and I found my cat Myrtle staring at the computer screen watching Social D’s “D...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 4:01 PM
The last few days of March offered some hope that 2022's massive rate spike might be slowing down. The first few days of April crushed those hopes a...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 3:51 PM
Running Out of Ways to Say "Higher Rates"
Market watchers are at risk of major desensitization when it comes...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 3:18 PM
Overall volumes of mortgage loan rate locks appear, as yet, largely unaffected by the recent increases in mortgage interest rates, but have definitely...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 11:30 AM
Bonds lost ground early in the overnight session before buyers stepped in to defend the new multi-year highs in yields across the curve. Japanese inve...
Fri, Apr 8 2022, 4:20 PM
Rates Keep Playing Defense Ahead of Volatile, Holiday-Shortened Week
Wednesday's Fed Minutes might have serv...
Fri, Apr 8 2022, 11:42 AM
Hopeful consolidation... Crushing defeat... Hopeful consolidation... Crushing defeat. We've hesitated time and again to endorse too much hope for a t...
Fri, Apr 8 2022, 11:27 AM
The risk-free 2-year Treasury began 2022 yielding .73 and is now at 2.52 percent! Does your company offer 2-1 buydown loans? Do your LOs even know wha...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 4:34 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on the price of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are basically bonds that allow investors to lend money to m...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 3:54 PM
Bad Day For The 10yr But Not For MBS
The spread between 2 and 10yr yields has widened more than 27bps in 2 d...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 11:53 AM
Following the second shallow inversion of the 2yr vs 10yr yield curve on Tuesday, 10yr yields have been surging higher while 2s recover. The curve is...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 10:12 AM
Today is National Beer Day (beer humor below), which made last night Beer Day’s Eve. Here at the CMLA event the talk is not about all of the craft bre...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates jumped significantly higher this morning with the average conventional conforming 30yr fixed rate moving well over 5%. The most recent...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 4:24 PM
Bonds Doing Admirable Job of Digesting Harsh New Reality
Yesterday's comments from Fed Vice Chair Brainard e...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 2:04 PM
You can't spend too much time reading/watching the news recently without being well aware of the relatively unprecedented surge in mortgage rates seen...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 12:17 PM
Grammar is important. What’s the difference between a kleptomaniac and a literalist? A literalist takes things literally. A kleptomaniac takes things,...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 11:51 AM
There is a highly reliable track record of the bond market moving quickly to get in position for the Fed's expected course of action. When those expe...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 5:07 PM
Rates have been rising rapidly in 2022 in general as the market quickly repositions for a big shift in Fed policy. The Fed sets short term rates and b...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 4:43 PM
Market's Fear is Bigger Than The Fed's Appetite For Destruction
The Fed is on a mission to destroy demand fo...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 12:19 PM
Sorry... I couldn't think of any "B" words for "weakest levels."
Our big project of the past week and a half has been to assess the possibility of a...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 11:05 AM
My friend David had his id stolen and now he’s just Dav. Having anything stolen is not a laughing matter, and since we’re in the money business, lende...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 4:01 PM
Curve Steepening Helps MBS, but Keeps Broader Indecision Intact
We're looking to the first few days of April...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates are fresh off their best week since early March in terms of outright improvement. The catch is that they were at the highest levels ...
