No Major Reaction to Data Means More Focus on Next Week
Thursday morning's economic data provided one of only two major opportunities for this week's scheduled events to ruffle the bond market's feathers. Despite a trifecta of stronger numbers (Claims, GDP, Durable Goods), bonds were right back to pre-data levels in less than an hour. Granted, we closed slightly weaker, but most of that weakness was in place at the open. This places all the more focus on next week's events which include both ISM reports, NFP, and central bank announcements from the Fed, Bank of England, and the ECB.
- 2.9 vs 2.6 f'cast, 3.2 prev
- Jobless Claims
- 186 vs 205 f'cast, 192 prev
- Durable Goods
- 5.6 vs 2.5 f'cast, -1.7 prev
- Core Durable Goods
- -0.2 vs -0.2 f'cast, 0.0 prev
Moderately weaker overnight. Additional losses after 8:30am data, but a modest recovery since then. 10yr up 2.5bps at 3.476. MBS down only 1 tick (-0.03).
Choppy morning giving way to better gains now after a strong 7yr Treasury auction. 10yr yield still up 2.2bps on the day at 3.473. MBS down only 2 ticks (.06).
MBS losing some ground over the past 90 minutes with 5.0 coupons down an eighth on the day (also down about an eighth from the highs seen at 2pm). 10yr yields up 4.2bps at 3.493.