Tue, Dec 7 2021, 9:41 AM
Last week's story was simple: unknowns and risks surrounding omicron prompted traders to shed risk by selling stocks and buying bonds. Unfortunately ...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 4:26 PM
Bonds Sell-Off, But MBS Outperform
The week began decently enough with bonds holding most of last week's gai...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow , sideways range since October. During that time, the average 30yr fixed rate hasn't moved by more than an e...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 11:41 AM
Although MBS have been underperforming, the broader trend in the bond market remains in good shape--especially in light of current headwinds. The mos...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 11:19 AM
Do you smoke weed? Have you been vaccinated against COVID? Too early in the workweek for those questions? (Is it okay to ask if someone’s been vaccina...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 4:25 PM
A new report from ATTOM says that the number of mortgage originations dropped sharply in the third quarter. The company says there were 3.59 million r...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 4:19 PM
Several developments are converging on the global economy and financial markets at the moment. Each brings its own causes for concern. Together, they ...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 4:19 PM
Big Reversal in Bonds After Stocks Sell Off
Bonds paradoxically sold off after this morning's weaker jobs nu...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 10:56 AM
Huh? Someone told me that “reality” shows are all scripted out ahead of time and there’s a standard recipe! What the heck?! There are some things wher...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 10:55 AM
It's NFP day for the bond market although we have to ask ourselves what that really means in a world where the Fed has explicitly stated that it's see...
Thu, Dec 2 2021, 4:18 PM
MBS Give Up Yesterday's Gains Despite Decent Start
MBS have a bit of a problem. In the past week, they've g...
Thu, Dec 2 2021, 3:43 PM
Mortgage rates started weaker and ended stronger yesterday. Unfortunately , today delivered exactly the opposite scenario. The underlying bond market ...
Thu, Dec 2 2021, 11:26 AM
Like a rising tide, rising prices are pushing a lot of other financial elements higher. Earlier this week surging home prices drove a near $100K incre...
Thu, Dec 2 2021, 11:23 AM
Today, 20211202 (2nd December 2021), is a palindrome in the YYYYMMDD format. That aside, sorry the commentary is a little late this morning: I went ou...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 4:55 PM
National spending on construction spending rose slightly in October, but for the second month in a row, the increase wasn't driven by the residential ...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 4:33 PM
Mortgage rates were much lower at the start of business yesterday , but began rising in the afternoon as the bond market lost ground. That same moment...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 4:32 PM
Weaker Start, Stronger Finish
Volatility has been elevated for the bond market in the past 4 weeks and espec...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 11:09 AM
It's an interesting, confusing, and tumultuous moment for financial markets as traders digest an unprecedented confluence of relevant events. Two eve...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 11:05 AM
Thanksgiving week, a three-day business week for many, saw the usual sharp decline in mortgage activity although purchase applications remained season...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 11:01 AM
Lenders are focused on December, and 2022, and along those lines the MBA’s Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni will be presenting a forecast today for nex...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 4:19 PM
Big Swings as Covid Squares Off Against The Fed
It was omicron vs the Fed today and bonds had a front row se...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates ended the previous week with a hopeful outlook due to the omicron variant. In general, rates benefit from news and events that cause in...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 12:55 PM
While the profits were nowhere near 2020 levels, independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks reported their third quarter ...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 12:52 PM
The new conforming loans limits for mortgages that can be acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were announced this morning by the Federal Housing Fi...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 11:29 AM
The old adage about waiting for the kettle to boil could be applied to the widely predicted deceleration of home price appreciation. It seems to be ha...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 10:49 AM
Brian C. writes, “I was surprised when I got my new Tesla, instead of the new car smell, it had an Elon Musk.” Tesla was founded 18 years ago. Time fl...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 10:25 AM
Today's reaction function for the market is very simple and very obvious. Shortly after midnight, Moderna's CEO made some discouraging comments about...
Mon, Nov 29 2021, 3:27 PM
Bonds Find Footing After Shaky Start
This morning we found ourselves in the uncomfortable position of watchi...
Mon, Nov 29 2021, 11:12 AM
Bonds are starting out the new week retaining a majority of last Friday's mega rally. The omicron-inspired gains were big enough that 10yr yields ar...
Mon, Nov 29 2021, 11:05 AM
The number of signed contracts for the purchase of existing homes made another significant about face in October. The National Association of Realtors...
Mon, Nov 29 2021, 11:02 AM
While headlines move interest rates and countries are shutting their borders again, our industry awaits the official 2022 conforming loan limits after...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 2:51 PM
Just when it looked like the current week would fizzle out on a negative note for rates, our least favorite market mover is back in the news. B.1.1.52...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 2:50 PM
Covid Variant Causes Massive Market Reaction
This morning it was B.1.1.529. By the afternoon, the WHO label...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 11:34 AM
Remember July? Covid was a fading memory and the light was clearly visible at the end of the pandemic tunnel. Then came Delta. It served as a painf...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 10:39 AM
As millions of Americans convince themselves that loading and unloading the dishwasher counts as exercise, while we are reminded that rates are imposs...
Wed, Nov 24 2021, 4:18 PM
Fed Minutes Largely As Expected; No Major Drama For Bonds
After weathering the storm of this morning's data,...
Wed, Nov 24 2021, 1:51 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports that the volume of loan applications submitted during the week ended November 19 increased slightly, co...
Wed, Nov 24 2021, 11:38 AM
One of the side effects of holiday-shortened weeks is a condensed data schedule. That's especially true of Thanksgiving week as it essentially remove...
Wed, Nov 24 2021, 10:47 AM
New home sales improved slightly on the unexpected, reported surge in September and still managed to disappoint. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Depart...
Wed, Nov 24 2021, 10:44 AM
Ready to play Iowa's Thanksgiving dinner bingo ? Coffee prices are at a 10-year high, but drinkers will figure out what to do to afford it. All day lo...
Tue, Nov 23 2021, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today as the bond market remained in a defensive stance for a variety of reasons. The week's scheduled Treasury auctio...
Tue, Nov 23 2021, 4:41 PM
Strong Auction No Match For Bond Bears
Today's 7yr auction was the biggest potential source of volatility fo...
Tue, Nov 23 2021, 11:06 AM
The price of plenty of things, not just mortgages, is set by supply and demand. Forget the price of turkey… how ‘bout Christmas trees?! I don’t know h...
Tue, Nov 23 2021, 10:46 AM
As of last Friday, the bond market looked keen on rejecting any attempt to revisit the recent ceiling in late October (10yr yields were just over 1.70...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates began the new week on a bad note with the average lender full erasing the improvement seen on Friday. This leaves many lenders at their...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 4:41 PM
Abrupt Sell-Off To Begin Holiday-Shortened Week
The day began with confirmation that Fed Chair Powell would ...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 11:33 AM
There was some speculation that Biden would nominate Fed governor Lael Brainard to take over as Fed chair. It an outside possibility, but one that le...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 11:11 AM
Existing home sales moved higher in October, the second consecutive month of growth . The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales of pre-ow...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 11:02 AM
Time flies. For example, Thanksgiving week is here already. Debbie Harry, of Blondie fame, is 76 years old. Better.com has already been around five ye...
Fri, Nov 19 2021, 3:13 PM
Strong Showing Overall Despite Late Day Weakness
As noted in this morning's commentary, the key source of in...
