Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:38 PM
Bonds Surprisingly Willing to Rally on Fed Comments
The only notable market mover for bonds was a rather bas...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:24 PM
The tedium that is the 2nd half of November continues to underwhelm. Specifically, we're in a lull between CPI 2 weeks ago and Nonfarm Payrolls next w...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 12:45 PM
If you're just here for the conforming loan limit news, $766,550 is the number for 2024. Does this mean no one can get a mortgage for more than $...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 12:02 PM
Today brings the release of the two main home price indices (HPIs) for the month of September (yeah, there's a bit of a lag). The S&P Case Shiller ...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 10:09 AM
While we await the release of the changes in the official conforming loan limits later today (many lenders and MI companies went to $750k in October, ...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 3:23 PM
Thanksgiving week is always an interesting (and frequently frustrating) time for the bond market that underlies day to day interest rate changes. Mar...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 3:20 PM
Back Near Best Levels After Solid Auction Results
For those who'd been watching bond markets on Friday's hal...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 2:48 PM
The Census Bureau released the monthly New Home Sales report today, showing a decrease from 719k in September (revised down from 759k initially report...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 11:16 AM
The mortgage industry does not move in unison, unlike some groups. (You’ll need sound.) But consistency is important. For example, Starbucks fans can ...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 9:35 AM
The end of November has been true to form with several examples of directional movement despite an absence of motivation. Last Friday was perhaps the...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 3:45 PM
"Lower volatility and more sideways momentum" have been the themes as we've moved away from last week's more consequential economic data. The underly...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 3:35 PM
Inconsequentially Weaker After Data; We'll Be Back on Monday
While Friday will technically be a half day for...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 1:06 PM
Thinking of purchasing a house for a disabled adult child or parent? Are you unable to qualify for a mortgage due to a disability? While this progra...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 12:06 PM
Up until yesterday, we would have placed the lower boundary of the prevailing range somewhere between the 4.40% lows from last Friday and the 4.43% pi...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 9:42 AM
“I threw my phone from the roof, and it broke. I guess airplane mode wasn’t working.” Plenty of folks will be traveling soon. Here’s some trivia for t...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 8:47 AM
An improved (albeit slightly) mortgage interest rate environment helped push the volume of mortgage applications higher during the week ending Novembe...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 3:26 PM
The bond market that underlies mortgage rates has had several decent days in a row with trading levels in excellent territory relative to the past two...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 3:23 PM
Modest, Decent Gains, But Not Many Surprises
The bond market continues mostly adhering to expectations for n...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 12:46 PM
Existing home sales achieved their lowest annual level in ten years in September, and now appear to have doubled down. The National Association of Rea...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 12:41 PM
There's a reason we haven't been mentioning this week's release of the Fed Minutes as we lament the absence of significant scheduled market movers. S...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 10:30 AM
“This commentary is only available while supplies last!” In the fall of 1621, the Pilgrims, working hard in Plymouth Colony after coming to North Amer...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 3:39 PM
Uneventful Start. Decent Gains After 20yr Bond Auction
The holiday-shortened trading week is off to exactly ...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates moved down to the lowest levels in roughly 2 months last week. To be fair, they had already hit similar levels earlier in the month af...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 11:01 AM
After last week's big CPI-driven rally, yields settled into an increasingly calm, sideways trend marked by resistance at the post-CPI lows. It would ...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 10:30 AM
When you own your own home, you don’t have to deal with unreasonable landlords. (Warning: uncensored.) And then there are those who own their own home...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 4:30 PM
Solid End to a Solid Week
With essentially nothing meaningful on the economic or event calendar, the bond ma...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 4:09 PM
The average mortgage lender was fairly close to their lowest levels of the past 2 months by yesterday afternoon and today saw almost no change. That'...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 1:27 PM
Both of the key metrics for residential construction, housing permits, and housing starts, beat analysts’ expectations in October. The U.S. Census Bur...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 11:42 AM
Our recent analytical thesis runs the risk of being all dressed up with nowhere to go between now and the first full week of December. As such, thing...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 11:13 AM
Talk can be humorous. "That lowdown scoundrel deserves to be kicked to death by a jackass, and I'm just the one to do it." (Attributed to a congressio...
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 3:27 PM
After a fantastic day on Tuesday and frustrating little bounce after yesterday's Retail Sales data, mortgage rates have fully recovered back to the re...
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 3:26 PM
Yesterday's Losses Easily Erased By Data
Wednesday's bond market losses rained on Tuesday's post-CPI parade....
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 2:24 PM
The National Association of Homebuilders and Wells Fargo releases the results of a survey of NAHB members each month regarding the health of the homeb...
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 12:04 PM
With yesterday's Retail Sales data in the rearview, the base case between now and the first week of December is for more moderate volatility in a rela...
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 11:02 AM
“Every disaster movie starts with the government ignoring a scientist.” Vendors and lenders can’t ignore red ink. Here in Kansas City, one of the disc...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 4:17 PM
Happy Thanksgiving From The Bond Market. See You in December
After Tuesday's big CPI reaction, Wednesday bro...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 4:06 PM
The story of the week for mortgage rates continues to be the substantial drop seen on Tuesday in response to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). But that ...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 12:10 PM
If you had to script out the most likely course of events after Tuesday's big post-CPI bond rally, the safest expectation would be for a token pull-ba...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 10:36 AM
Besides Janet Yellen’s In-N-Out foray, it is a rough environment out there: Hope you don’t want a Wells Fargo HELOC. Or just ask Citizens who is exiti...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 8:25 AM
Even though mortgage interest rates changed only slightly, the volume of mortgage applications moved higher for the second time in as many weeks. The ...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 4:05 PM
Another Big November Rally After CPI
There's something about CPI releases in November. Last year's example ...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 3:45 PM
November 3rd's jobs report brought an outstanding week for Treasuries and mortgage rates to an outstanding conclusion. From there, the following week...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 11:06 AM
Ever since the jobs report on November 3rd, today's CPI report was in focus as the next major fundamental focal point for the bond market. As 10yr yi...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 10:32 AM
This morning I head to Kansas, greeted by the news that Southwest is raising drink fees for the holidays. Has the “Let’s circle back after the holiday...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 4:51 PM
MBS Outperform Ahead of CPI
Monday had very little to offer in terms of calendar events or meaningful headl...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 4:43 PM
Mortgage rates began the day at the highest levels in nearly 2 weeks. The underlying bond market had been losing ground steadily since last Thursday ...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 12:31 PM
Last week ended up being a sideways dud in terms of the bond market's willingness to do anything new after the previous week's big rally. That said, ...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 11:52 AM
Whether it is an obscure band or an eatery in San Diego, a well-known palindrome is “tacocat.” Huh? Yes, it’s the same spelled backward or forward. Yo...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 4:21 PM
While it's possible to accuse mortgage rates of experiencing volatility over the past few days, this week was exceptionally calm compared to last week...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 4:20 PM
All Eyes on CPI
After last Friday's jobs report, there wasn't anything on the event calendar that demanded o...
