Tue, Nov 21 2023, 3:26 PM
The bond market that underlies mortgage rates has had several decent days in a row with trading levels in excellent territory relative to the past two...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 3:23 PM
Modest, Decent Gains, But Not Many Surprises
The bond market continues mostly adhering to expectations for n...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 12:46 PM
Existing home sales achieved their lowest annual level in ten years in September, and now appear to have doubled down. The National Association of Rea...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 12:41 PM
There's a reason we haven't been mentioning this week's release of the Fed Minutes as we lament the absence of significant scheduled market movers. S...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 10:30 AM
“This commentary is only available while supplies last!” In the fall of 1621, the Pilgrims, working hard in Plymouth Colony after coming to North Amer...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 3:39 PM
Uneventful Start. Decent Gains After 20yr Bond Auction
The holiday-shortened trading week is off to exactly ...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates moved down to the lowest levels in roughly 2 months last week. To be fair, they had already hit similar levels earlier in the month af...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 11:01 AM
After last week's big CPI-driven rally, yields settled into an increasingly calm, sideways trend marked by resistance at the post-CPI lows. It would ...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 10:30 AM
When you own your own home, you don’t have to deal with unreasonable landlords. (Warning: uncensored.) And then there are those who own their own home...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 4:30 PM
Solid End to a Solid Week
With essentially nothing meaningful on the economic or event calendar, the bond ma...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 4:09 PM
The average mortgage lender was fairly close to their lowest levels of the past 2 months by yesterday afternoon and today saw almost no change. That'...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 1:27 PM
Both of the key metrics for residential construction, housing permits, and housing starts, beat analysts’ expectations in October. The U.S. Census Bur...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 11:42 AM
Our recent analytical thesis runs the risk of being all dressed up with nowhere to go between now and the first full week of December. As such, thing...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 11:13 AM
Talk can be humorous. "That lowdown scoundrel deserves to be kicked to death by a jackass, and I'm just the one to do it." (Attributed to a congressio...
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 3:27 PM
After a fantastic day on Tuesday and frustrating little bounce after yesterday's Retail Sales data, mortgage rates have fully recovered back to the re...
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 3:26 PM
Yesterday's Losses Easily Erased By Data
Wednesday's bond market losses rained on Tuesday's post-CPI parade....
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 2:24 PM
The National Association of Homebuilders and Wells Fargo releases the results of a survey of NAHB members each month regarding the health of the homeb...
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 12:04 PM
With yesterday's Retail Sales data in the rearview, the base case between now and the first week of December is for more moderate volatility in a rela...
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 11:02 AM
“Every disaster movie starts with the government ignoring a scientist.” Vendors and lenders can’t ignore red ink. Here in Kansas City, one of the disc...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 4:17 PM
Happy Thanksgiving From The Bond Market. See You in December
After Tuesday's big CPI reaction, Wednesday bro...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 4:06 PM
The story of the week for mortgage rates continues to be the substantial drop seen on Tuesday in response to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). But that ...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 12:10 PM
If you had to script out the most likely course of events after Tuesday's big post-CPI bond rally, the safest expectation would be for a token pull-ba...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 10:36 AM
Besides Janet Yellen’s In-N-Out foray, it is a rough environment out there: Hope you don’t want a Wells Fargo HELOC. Or just ask Citizens who is exiti...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 8:25 AM
Even though mortgage interest rates changed only slightly, the volume of mortgage applications moved higher for the second time in as many weeks. The ...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 4:05 PM
Another Big November Rally After CPI
There's something about CPI releases in November. Last year's example ...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 3:45 PM
November 3rd's jobs report brought an outstanding week for Treasuries and mortgage rates to an outstanding conclusion. From there, the following week...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 11:06 AM
Ever since the jobs report on November 3rd, today's CPI report was in focus as the next major fundamental focal point for the bond market. As 10yr yi...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 10:32 AM
This morning I head to Kansas, greeted by the news that Southwest is raising drink fees for the holidays. Has the “Let’s circle back after the holiday...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 4:51 PM
MBS Outperform Ahead of CPI
Monday had very little to offer in terms of calendar events or meaningful headl...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 4:43 PM
Mortgage rates began the day at the highest levels in nearly 2 weeks. The underlying bond market had been losing ground steadily since last Thursday ...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 12:31 PM
Last week ended up being a sideways dud in terms of the bond market's willingness to do anything new after the previous week's big rally. That said, ...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 11:52 AM
Whether it is an obscure band or an eatery in San Diego, a well-known palindrome is “tacocat.” Huh? Yes, it’s the same spelled backward or forward. Yo...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 4:21 PM
While it's possible to accuse mortgage rates of experiencing volatility over the past few days, this week was exceptionally calm compared to last week...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 4:20 PM
All Eyes on CPI
After last Friday's jobs report, there wasn't anything on the event calendar that demanded o...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 1:59 PM
Coming off of last week's big rally, the present week looked like a long shot to offer any exciting developments. Now in the rearview, the lack of exc...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 11:47 AM
My cat Myrtle is enthralled with Artificial Intelligence (AI). Okay, I made that up. She’s only interested to the extent that it impacts the supply of...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 4:48 PM
It was a great run for mortgage rates over the last 2 weeks with a sharp decline last week followed by very respectable ground-holding in the present ...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 4:44 PM
30yr Auction Draws a Line Under The Range
The day began with nominal, inconsequential weakness in bonds. 10...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 12:13 PM
There's a tendency, among bond watching loan originators, to focus a bit too much on whatever is happening on the present day in the bond market. Hig...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 10:21 AM
Originators: Want to add value for your potential current or previous clients who are veterans? Send them a link to Veteran’s Day discounts and free m...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 4:50 PM
There have been more than a few days in the recent past with absolutely massive day-over-day swings in mortgage rates. In fact, on each of the first ...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 4:38 PM
Well-Received 10yr Auction Helps Validate New Range
With the present week lacking in terms of scheduled data...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 11:08 AM
Bonds surged lower in yield last week on a combination of economic data, Fed comments, and the Treasury issuance update. While the move definitely dr...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 9:54 AM
You should know that caffeine increases the power of aspirin and other painkillers, which is why it is found in some medicines. You should also know t...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 8:11 AM
A quarter-point decline in 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) interest pushed mortgage application activity higher across the board during the week end...
Tue, Nov 7 2023, 5:17 PM
After one of the best 3-day winning streaks in decades last week, mortgage rates jumped a bit to start the new week. That jump turned out to be a tem...
Tue, Nov 7 2023, 5:16 PM
Back to Breaking Even on The Week
Bonds rallied overnight thanks to weaker econ data in Europe and managed t...
Tue, Nov 7 2023, 12:45 PM
Every now and then European markets do favors for the US bond market narrative. They can also detract, but today is not one of those days. Weaker ov...
Tue, Nov 7 2023, 10:22 AM
Yes, WeWork has filed for bankruptcy, but if you look at GDP and employment, our economy is doing pretty well. Did you know that the Dallas metro area...
Mon, Nov 6 2023, 4:52 PM
In and of itself, today would rank among the handful of "worst days" of any given year in term of mortgage rate movement. In other words, comparing t...
