How about those junk emails that start off with, “I’m not going to waste your time.” It already wasted my time. Is it a waste of time paying attention to what government officials say, or schedules that they give? Trelix’s Brett Parker noted, “Last year some in the industry were saying, ‘Stay alive until ‘25’ but now it could be ‘Stay in the mix until ‘26’.” Last week, no sooner did FHFA Director Bill Pulte say that 2026 could very well be the year that serious strides are made toward privatizing Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (i.e., removing them from their 2008 conservatorship status) than a day or two later Donald Trump said that plans are underway. The “Oh, that’s just Trump being Trump” doesn’t quite fly in this case, given the Agencies role in the U.S. housing market and trillions of dollars of outstanding mortgage-backed securities. (More below.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Calque. Calque provides a binding backup offer on your borrower’s departing residence to clear the existing mortgage balance and closing costs in 48 business hours or less. And it costs less than other buy before you sell solutions. Hear an interview with Closed Title’s Kaylin Edwards on being a young person in the industry, what it's like working on the escrow side of things, and the latest in the title space.)

Software, Products, and Services for Lenders and Brokers

Join ICE today for its monthly Mortgage Monitor webinar where you’ll gain critical insights into U.S. housing and mortgage market trends. The information presented in this preeminent, widely attended monthly webinar is based on the most current data available from ICE's vast mortgage, housing, and property data assets, including the largest servicer-contributed loan-level database in the industry. Learn how borrower demand, housing affordability, interest rates, available equity, and other factors may impact your lending strategies. Register for the complimentary webinar which will be hosted today from 2 – 3 p.m. ET.

Retirement looks different these days… think pickleball, side hustles, and passport stamps. By the end of 2025, 60% of Boomers will be eligible for Social Security, but nearly half plan to keep working and 35% aren’t sure they can retire. Enter HomeSafe Second: a second-lien solution that lets them access home equity in a lump sum, with no new monthly mortgage payments and no need to refi their low-rate mortgage. Contact ss@financeofamerica.com to learn how Finance of America can become your partner in reverse mortgage success. The borrower must meet all loan obligations, including meeting all loan obligations under the first lien mortgage, living in the property as the principal residence and paying property charges, including property taxes, fees, hazard insurance. The borrower must maintain the home. If the homeowner does not meet these loan obligations, then the loan will need to be repaid. Finance of America | NMLS #2285

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Are U.S. Securities Still Risk-Free?

Once seen as the ultimate safe haven, U.S. Treasury bonds are now under an unusual kind of scrutiny. In "The New Risk in Risk-Free Assets: Treasury Bonds Under Pressure," Robbie Chrisman explores how mounting national debt, policy unpredictability, and shaken investor confidence are challenging the long-held perception of Treasuries as risk-free assets. As global markets react to shifting political and economic tides, Robbie warns that the implications could be far-reaching. Read the full article to understand why even the safest bets in finance may no longer be risk-free.

Mergers and Acquisitions

There is no reason that mergers and acquisitions will stop. For example, a few weeks ago builder lenders took note that New Home Co. will take Landsea Homes private in a deal that values the publicly traded builder at $1.2 billion.

Yesterday, unfortunately, brought us another example of “loose lips sink ships” in the M&A world. Every deal involves confidentiality, personnel, lives, and often great sums of money, of course. So, when details are released prior to the planned announcement in an effort to have “a scoop,” or vendors spread the word when others have agreed to the plan, it’s plain wrong. And publicizing incorrect information is even more disrespectful. Fortunately, neither company was publicly held, but months of work can be blown out of the water.

That said, Supreme Lending is acquiring the MiMutual Mortgage team (both retail and wholesale) in a strategic move toward national growth. Supreme originates over $5B a year and will be on pace for above $6B after the acquisition. The transition is already underway, with onboarding events taking place in Michigan this week. The M&A team at the STRATMOR Group represented Supreme in the transaction.

Founded in 1992, MiMutual Mortgage has long been known for its retail presence across Michigan and beyond, as well as its boutique wholesale division. The group now joins Supreme Lending with access to a full national platform, expanded product offerings, and enterprise-level marketing and operations support, while continuing to serve their communities with the same personal, local focus they’re known for.

“This isn’t just a transaction. It’s a turning point,” said Sarah Middleton, Chief Growth Officer at Supreme Lending (which has licensed operations in all 50 states). “What drew us to this group wasn’t volume or market share. It was their heart. Their leadership. Their grit. You can’t fake alignment like this… And when you find it, you move. We’re not just welcoming incredible professionals. We’re gaining family. And we’re just getting started.”

A recent STRATMOR piece is titled, “Mergers and Acquisitions Aren’t Going Away, and In Fact…” STRATMOR’s Garth Graham stated, “Of the last dozen deals we have done, the timing has ranged from two months from start to finish, to over one year to get the deal done. Asset sales are faster, while stock sales take longer, so it depends on the needs of the buyers and sellers and what works best. But I warn potential sellers not to WAIT too long to engage in the process, even if you hold to pull the trigger. For example, we have deals in process where the parties have worked together for months (getting to know each other, share financials) and now are finalizing terms.”

Freddie and Fannie in the News

One topic facing lenders, and investors, for the last 17 years is the proposed privatization of the GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises, aka Freddie and Fannie) and what would happen if they indeed left conservatorship under the government. Yesterday Trump said the U.S. government would in fact retain guarantees and an oversight role over Fannie and Freddie even if they went back public. Questions of “free enterprise” and “lack of capitalism” aside, the statement from Trump reduces the risk that the government would leave Fannie and Freddie without a financial backstop, which could likely lead to higher rates (baking in risk).

So, President Trump said that the U.S. will retain oversight and guarantees in any Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac spinoff. This led to another round of suggestions by some that Trump is either bowing down to the interests of major stockholders of Freddie and Fannie, or information about his statements is released ahead of time to some.

Recall that the United States Treasury owns preferred shares in the firms and warrants to purchase about 80 percent of their common stock. The combined market value of the two companies was $17 billion as of the last closing price, having shot up more than five-fold in value over the past year, with most gains made around Trump's 2024 U.S. election win. Trump supporter Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management is the biggest holder of Fannie's public OTC shares with about 10 percent, and Capital Research Global Investors, a unit of the Capital Group, is among the top investors in Freddie and Fannie.

“I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING COMPANIES PUBLIC, but I want to be clear, the U.S. Government will keep its implicit GUARANTEES, and I will stay strong in my position on overseeing them as President,” Trump posted.

One wonders if these GSEs really can operate as normal business entities. There are of course the underlying repercussions which could result in millions of borrowers paying higher rates and increase the costs toward home loans based on the balance sheet requirements to maintain solvency. Let’s not forget that both F&F effectively owe a large sum of money to the government.

At a Fannie Mae news conference, Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) that regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said Trump is talking about "potentially figuring out how these businesses can continue to be worth more and more money over time."

"These businesses, in my view are worth, eventually, will be worth, trillions of dollars’ worth of value to the American taxpayers," he said.

Asked about details of the plan on taking the companies public, Pulte said it's up to Trump, and he would "eventually make whatever decision that he wants to make, on his own timeline."

If F&F don’t have some type of government backstop, investors will demand a higher yield from their investment, and U.S. homeowner’s rates would go up. Bloomberg’s Matt Levine reminds us that, “For many years, Fannie and Freddie had what everyone referred to as ‘implicit guarantees’ from the U.S. government. Everyone, that is, except Fannie, Freddie, and the government. Because … I just … because if you say it’s a guarantee it’s not implicit? Like that’s what ‘implicit’ means? And so, every Fannie and Freddie mortgage-backed security offering said, right on the cover, that the securities were “not guaranteed by the United States and do not constitute a debt or obligation of the United States or any agency or instrumentality thereof.”

And then they collapsed in 2008, and the government did in fact step in to guarantee their liabilities. That’s what an implicit guarantee is: You say there’s no guarantee, but there is.

“If they leave government control, then one of three things has to happen. #1: They won’t have a government guarantee. They’ll guarantee mortgages themselves, with their own balance sheet, like ordinary (but giant) insurance companies; they’ll need to have fortress balance sheets and AAA ratings to make that guarantee credible. That will require a lot of capital and might also lead to higher mortgage rates if the market doesn’t trust their guarantees entirely as much as it trusts the government.

“#2: They will have a government guarantee: They will take a first-loss risk with their capital, but it will be made explicit that, in the worst case, the government will back the mortgages that they guarantee. U.S. conforming mortgages will continue to be credit-risk-free. There is an economic problem with this: The government will be guaranteeing the debts of regular shareholder-owned companies, so one could worry about moral hazard and about favoritism; the government would presumably charge a fee for that guarantee, but there would be debate about the fair level of the fee. There is also a possible accounting problem: The reason that the government historically avoided (explicitly) guaranteeing Fannie and Freddie’s debts was that doing so would make them government debt, adding trillions of dollars to the US national debt and running into problems with the debt ceiling.

“#3: They will go back to what they were like in 2007… not explicitly guaranteed by the government (so not adding to government debt) but, you know, wink wink. An implicit guarantee. This third option seems bad and untidy, but also perhaps the most practical outcome. No government backstop of the multitrillion-dollar mortgage market seems, at this point, a little optimistic: the re-privatized Fannie and Freddie will be the definition of “too big to fail,” and it would be hard to set up a structure to absolutely prevent future bailouts.

“The explicit government guarantee is optically difficult due to the accounting and moral-hazard problems. But ‘there’s no government guarantee, Fannie and Freddie will be very well capitalized and carefully regulated to make sure that they don’t fail, but wink wink’ might get most of the benefits of a pure private-capital solution, but with the financial stability and low mortgage rates of a government backstop.

“How do you communicate ‘wink wink,’ though? At this point, after Fannie and Freddie have failed and been bailed out once and are now perhaps being returned to profit-seeking private hands, when any sort of further backstop will be controversial? It’s possible that a random Truth Social post from Trump is a pretty effective approach. Then you go re-privatize Fannie and Freddie, they raise a lot of capital, they’re carefully regulated, etc., and the prospectuses all say, “not guaranteed by the United States.” But everyone has read the Truth Social post and thinks “ehh Trump doesn’t mean that.” And then they come roaring back and become too-big-to-fail and the guarantee, expressed only in this one post, becomes an entrenched expectation and every future president knows that doing anything to walk it back would cause the mortgage market to seize up.

“Meanwhile if Fannie and Freddie collapse and the government doesn’t bail them out, could a creditor sue the government on the basis of this Truth Social post? Is it … is it … is it securities fraud? If Fannie and Freddie issue debt that says, “not guaranteed by the United States,” but Donald Trump has posted on Truth Social that the debt is “implicitly guaranteed by the United States,” can’t investors reasonably rely on that? You sue and go to court and the government says “well the securities say on the front page that they’re not guaranteed, I don’t see how you could have been confused,” and you say “but they were implicitly guaranteed, and I know because President Trump said so explicitly.” Thank you Matt & Bloomberg!

Capital Markets

Atlas, MCT’s generative AI advisor, has taken a major step forward in capital markets innovation. During the MBA Secondary Conference, Pike Creek Mortgage Services used Atlas to evaluate their current pipeline coverage and get a hedge recommendation. Atlas recommended selling $2MM UM30 6’s and $250K G2SF 5.5’s. After a thorough review, Pike Creek executed both trades through a competitive auction on MCTlive! “It’s one thing to summarize a pipeline, it’s another to help manage it,” said Steve Pruitt, CFO at Pike Creek Mortgage Services. This video documenting the milestone shows how Atlas goes beyond surface-level summaries by engaging directly with live pipeline data and delivering actionable recommendations, while keeping lenders fully in control of execution. It’s a glimpse into how AI is already enhancing confidence, speed, and precision in secondary marketing. Watch the video to see how AI is powering faster decisions for MCT clients.

A U.S. trade court ruled that most of President Trump’s global tariffs were illegal and ordered them to be lifted within 10 days, though the White House plans to appeal. The decision is unlikely to significantly affect most trading partners, as the administration may seek alternative routes to impose tariffs. This legal development seems to be calming investor concerns, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s approach. Fed officials of late have signaled a cautious stance, advocating for policy patience until more clarity on trade policy emerges. Meanwhile, markets are pricing in fewer than two rate cuts by year-end, and yields are inching higher amid growing anxiety over the country’s fiscal trajectory.

Yes, things are looking a little shaky in the bond market, especially for long-term U.S. government debt. Yields on 30-year Treasury bonds are staying close to 5 percent, a level that makes investors nervous because it signals rising borrowing costs and falling demand. More traders are betting against these bonds than at any point since February, partly due to concerns about the U.S. adding trillions more to its already massive national debt and recent turbulence in Japan’s bond market. Simply put, investors aren’t eager to buy long-term debt right now, even as the government keeps issuing more of it, and that imbalance is driving yields higher not only for U.S. Treasuries, but around the world.

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with a second look at Q1 GDP (-.2 percent) and weekly jobless claims (240k, 2.919 million continuing). No material revisions were expected for either real GDP or the GDP Price Index. Later today brings the pending home sales index for April, and with it hopes that a housing market moving closer to balance should translate to flat-to-modest monthly increases in house price indexes in March, further easing annual house price inflation. There will also be a Treasury auction of $44 billion 7-year notes, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and remarks from several Fed speakers. After GDP and Jobless Claims, Agency MBS prices are a shade better than Wednesday’s close, the 2-year is yielding 3.98, and the 10-year is at 4.47 after closing yesterday at 4.48 percent.