Best Levels in More Than a Month Ahead of Jobs Report

At one point this morning, 10yr yields were close to breaking into new 6-month lows.  By the 3pm CME close, we had to settle for the lowest yields since December 28th.  The gains arrived rapidly just this week with concerns over the regional banking sector causing a semblance of the drama seen in March 2023. This has arguably been a bigger consideration for rates than the week's economic data.  If we include Treasury supply updates, we could argue that data has played a small supporting role at best.  As such, Friday's jobs report is now the first, last, and only huge potential market mover of the week.

Econ Data / Events
    • Jobless Claims
      • 224k vs 212k f'cast, 215k prev
    • ISM Manufacturing 
      • 49.1 vs 47.0 f'cast, 47.1 prev
    • ISM Prices Paid
      • 52.9 vs 46.9 f'cast, 45.2 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:34 AM

A hair weaker overnight with a modest bounce after data.  MBS unchanged.  10yr down 1bp at 3.907.

10:18 AM

Modest selling after ISM Data.  10yr still down 1.6bps at 3.823. MBS down 1 tick on the day

11:39 AM

Sharp rally starting after 10:30am on regional bank volatility.  10yr down 7.5bps at 3.841.  MBS up 2 ticks (0.06), but possibly as much as 4 ticks (.125) after adjusting for liquidity.

03:47 PM

A bit of a give-back into 2pm, but leveling off now.  10yr down 5.5bps at 3.861.  MBS up 1 tick (.03).

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