Yesterday brought a nice little rally in response to a surprisingly rate-friendly press conference with Fed Chair Powell.  The counterpoint to that conclusion is seen in the chart I posted in yesterday's recap.  Specifically, bonds began the day rallying and were in the midst of a linear trend toward lower yields when Powell's press conference briefly took yields below that trend.  They ultimately returned to the trend by the end of the day.

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My efforts to de-emphasize the significance of the Fed (and NFP before that) are not without a solid reason.  Yes, these events can and will cause reactions on the day of their release--especially when they surprise markets.  But unlike the average past example (especially before mid 2019), they haven't been up to the task of creating lasting momentum or meaningfully changing the overall trend. 

Simply put, the current range is extremely narrow.  it's only been trade-related developments that have challenged the boundaries of the range.  NFP and the Fed both created movement inside the range this week, but came nowhere close to challenging a boundary (OK, well, maybe NFP came close when it pushed yields precisely to the upper boundary at 1.86%).  Either way, yields are back to the middle of this micro range, and apparently waiting for a stronger cue from trade-related news.

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