Mon, Oct 5 2009, 3:33 PM
After getting pulled into a slightly higher range on late session stock strength, tsy's decided it would be best to go ahead and hold the line at prev...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 2:10 PM
Whether it's the fact that almost any trading session would seem anticlimactic after last week's tumult or whether it's a factor of relatively low vol...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 1:07 PM
As far as outright price levels are concerned, there is not a high degree of panic warranted by current price levels as MBS are still above 101-20 and...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 10:28 AM
The rally one would expect to occur after weak labor market data....took place yesterday. Now the bond market is giving some of it back. After hittin...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 8:30 AM
SEPT NONFARM PAYROLLS -263,000 vs. CONSENSUS -180,000 vs. AUG -201,000 (PREV -216,000). WORSE THAN EXPECTED. Yesterday's bond market rally has been c...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 5:45 PM
With a nod to any Monty Python fans in the audience, I feel compelled to let you know that this weekly wrap will not be providing any sort of dairy de...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 4:17 PM
For the sake of continuity, here's an exceedingly brief update in order to fill the "MBS AFTERNOON" spot. AQ and I got caught up writing, editing, di...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 2:51 PM
The immediate trader reaction to weak jobs data pushed the 10yr note yield from 3.18% all the way down to 3.10%. The precipitous fall in benchmark yi...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 11:51 AM
The FN 4.5 is trading +0-11 at 101-19 yielding 4.3043%. The FN 4.0 is +0-15 at 99-15 yielding 4.0586%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.1446%...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 8:45 AM
The 10yr TSY note yield has broken 3.27% resistance, leading "rate sheet influential" MBS prices higher.The FN 4.5 is +0-05 at 101-13 yielding 4.3275%...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 4:59 PM
Today has been unique. In recent weeks, rallies have taken us outside well-established trading ranges, but always with mitigating caveats or forthcom...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 3:36 PM
Given our recent admonitions about waiting for NFP as the most important data event of the week, the directionality of today's rally would lead us to ...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 11:53 AM
The recent bond market rally has led the yield curve and benchmark TSYs into numerous resistance levels that, if broken, might imply a general shift i...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 8:50 AM
The AM So Far...
* ADP worse than expected at -254k
* GDP Better than expected at -.7 vs. consensus of -1.2
# Bonds Initial reaction DOW...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 5:04 PM
Maybe the markets will find some sort of impetus to get directional tomorrow, but so far this week, Monday's extension of Friday's rally merely set us...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 3:32 PM
After hitting an intraday high of 101-16 this morning, an unfriendly trend channel developed and the FN 4.5 fell to an intraday low print of 101-04. ...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 1:03 PM
Plainly and simply, prices are at their lowest point of the day. And though this STILL leaves MBS over 101-00 on the 4.5 and the 10yr is still under ...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 11:36 AM
September Consumer Confidence Survey data registered a 53.1 read vs. the consensus estimate of 57.0 and the previous 54.5 (revised from 54.1). Followi...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 8:57 AM
Good Morning. The rates market is giving back a portion of yesterday's gains. Stock futures are higher. The 10yr TSY note yield is trading near 3.33%....
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 5:06 PM
Tuesday 9/29 at a Glance
* MBS down 1 tick on the day to 101-11, continuing to close at multi-month highs
* Real Money (insurance funds, e...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 4:03 PM
It wasnt a very busy trading session for mortgages. Much of the action took place this morning between 9AM and 10AM. As prices ticked higher banks wer...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 1:40 PM
We're about overdue for some triangles wouldn't you say? Today's post morning correction certainly provides for that. Triangles mean different thing...
Mon, Sep 28 2009, 11:53 AM
Besides another round of record TSY issuances last week (which is what many are trading), weakness in stocks, some bond bullish econ data, and the app...
Mon, Sep 28 2009, 8:24 AM
The term "slow" can be sometimes be misleading in this context. Although the absence of scheduled data combined with Yom Kippur's attendance toll are...
Mon, Sep 28 2009, 5:05 PM
For MBS, Tsys, and Stocks alike, no news was good news today as all three markets rallied amidst a lack of scheduled data, headline drama, or meaningf...
Mon, Sep 28 2009, 3:54 PM
Heading into the 5pm "MY SCREENS ARE ALREADY TURNED OFF" marking period, the FN 4.5 is at the highs of the day...+0-07 at 101-11 yielding 4.33%. Spott...
Mon, Sep 28 2009, 1:55 PM
Arguments are ongoing for adjusting the current MBS range upward. At the moment, the 4.5 is up 4 ticks to 101-08 and the 10yr tsy is up 4 ticks (in p...
Fri, Sep 25 2009, 12:17 PM
We're now at the point where we're prepared to get confirmation from the yield curve. The bottom of the yield range for the 10yr tsy is around 3.30 w...
Fri, Sep 25 2009, 9:24 AM
Good Morning. The Yield Curve is flatter and rate sheet influential MBS coupons are trading slightly higher in price. Stocks are weak worldwide. The d...
Fri, Sep 25 2009, 5:01 PM
MBS CLOSE AT A GLANCE
* thus ends an unofficial supportive week in which MBS shot up the better part of a full point since Monday's close.
...
Fri, Sep 25 2009, 3:40 PM
I got an email on Wednesday inquiring about a pipeline strategy for a medium sized branch lender. They do some mandatories, but are generally best ef...
Fri, Sep 25 2009, 1:48 PM
Something had to be done to pique your interest. Sure the S&P is up 5-6 points off the lows of the day, but the effect on bonds has been anything but...
Thu, Sep 24 2009, 11:17 AM
The FN 4.5 MBS coupon has formed an aesthetically pleasing trend channel this morning, progressively achieving higher highs and setting lower lows. Cu...
Thu, Sep 24 2009, 8:43 AM
Good Morning. The rate sheet influential FN 4.5 MBS coupon is mostly unchanged on the day to slightly improved this morning. Stocks have reacted posit...
Thu, Sep 24 2009, 5:06 PM
It's not so much that the past three days have been remarkably good for MBS prices, but rather that an extended period of relatively stable bullishnes...
Thu, Sep 24 2009, 3:19 PM
Someone snuck into bond market central today and stole the volatility right out from under our noses. Afternoon trading ranges have adhered beautiful...
Thu, Sep 24 2009, 1:02 PM
The Treasury Department has successfully auctioned $29 billion 7 year notes at a high yield of 3.005% vs. the 1pm WI of 3.033%. 30.22% of the bids wer...
Wed, Sep 23 2009, 11:09 AM
RANGE BOUND RANGE BOUND RANGE BOUND!!!!! The FN 4.5 has traded as low as 100-11 and as high as 100-18....trading flows are all quiet ahead of the FOMC...
Wed, Sep 23 2009, 8:40 AM
The mortgage market is in "wait and see" mode ahead of the FOMC statement. The 10yr Treasury note is at the high side of the recent range, currently t...
Wed, Sep 23 2009, 5:18 PM
We're sorry, we know the constant RANGE BOUND RANGE BOUND RANGE BOUND can be frustrating at times...but look at the bright side, at least we didnt bre...
Wed, Sep 23 2009, 2:17 PM
So far, getting the expected bounce from a neutral to potentially bond friendly FOMC statement. As we discussed, most pre-statement concessionary sel...
Wed, Sep 23 2009, 1:02 PM
* $40 bln in 5 year notes
* 2.47 high yield with 40% taken at high yield
* significantly higher than WI yield
* Bid to Cover - 2.4
...
Tue, Sep 22 2009, 11:23 AM
The dollar is weaker, oil is more expensive, gold has traded up to $1,019 after falling below $1,000 yesterday, and stocks are testing new 2009 highs....
Tue, Sep 22 2009, 8:48 AM
MBS trading flows are expected to slow as the two day FOMC meeting begins today. Thus, MBS price action will be left at the mercy of the gyrations of ...
Tue, Sep 22 2009, 4:55 PM
You might notice the title of today's MBS CLOSE doesn't include "MBS CLOSE." Considering AQ's afternoon commentary pretty much covers it for today an...
Tue, Sep 22 2009, 3:19 PM
Activity in the rates market has slowed following the 2yr note auction....even before then there wasnt much to discuss. This was expected as traders g...
Tue, Sep 22 2009, 1:02 PM
* High Yield of 1.034
* 27.16% taken at high
* WI yield was around .967
* Bid To Cover 3.23
* Indirect Bid of $19.18 bln out of $...
Mon, Sep 21 2009, 11:32 AM
The FN 4.5 is trading +0-07 at 100-22 yielding 4.378% and the FN 4.0 is +0-10 at 98-07. Friday afternoon price weakness did not carry over into today...
Mon, Sep 21 2009, 8:45 AM
Global stocks are mostly lower. Dollar stronger, Oil cheaper (under $70 barrel), Gold cheaper (under $1,000). No US econ data. US stock futures lower...
Mon, Sep 21 2009, 5:03 PM
Trying to find meaningful topics of conversation on interest rates beyond the customary treatment of the technical trading range is a tall order. Alt...
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